All the electronic voting machines have been sealed in the Karnataka Elections—and so are the fates of all the opinion polls, exit polls, pre-poll surveys, post-poll surveys, and table-top surveys. This, then, is how it all looks.
Tags: BJP, C-Fore, Churumuri, CNN-IBN, Congress, CSDS, IMRB, INX News, JDS, Karnataka Elections, NDTV, Suvarna News, The Week
23 May 2008 at 11:40 am
Ree,
Yaako nimdhu athee ayithu….swalpa 2 days thaDkoLree A to Z eLLaavondhu survey post maadi dwamsa maadtha idheeralree
23 May 2008 at 11:53 am
Miraj Patel is giving the Janata Dal 130
BJP Leaders are quoting in the range of 130 / 140
Sadly Congress Leaders know their fate and are adopting wait and watch policy.Will sleep with JD S if time and MONEY permits.
23 May 2008 at 12:06 pm
suri,
>>Will sleep with JD S if time and MONEY permits
And if they are ready to give ‘lucrative’ portfolios like mining, pwd, finance etc to JD(s).
23 May 2008 at 12:14 pm
Isn’t it amazing how each “prediction” is as unique as fingerprints?
Psephology….my foot!
23 May 2008 at 12:46 pm
Two contrasting predictions from NDTV and CNN-IBN. Both of them claim there is less than 5% probability of it being wrong. lets see which one will be true and which one is wrong.
23 May 2008 at 1:47 pm
I am sure one of them out of the six will turn out to be right.
23 May 2008 at 2:20 pm
CNN-IBN is baised towards Congress it seems… their pre poll survey done one month back gave Cong simple majority (114 seats) and BJP 60 seats..
In a month’s time it has changed to 86 for Cong… 79 for BJP… this is absurd…. i think the pre poll survey was to mislead people and to make belive that Congress in winning and people vote for Congress…
CNN IBN should be sued for this … though this is not possible…. shame on CNN IBN
23 May 2008 at 3:12 pm
One question to Vishwa:
I mean, if CNN IBN deliberately ‘manufactures’ a poll, surely they would know that their predictions would go wrong.
if their predictions repeatedly go wrong, their credibility will nosedive and their ratings will fall, if their ratings fall, their ad revenue falls, in turn which will mean the channel will face huge losses.
Why would CNN IBN embark on fabricating an opinion poll and let their credibility fall?
23 May 2008 at 3:21 pm
Vaish,
where are you dear? Did you not hear CNN-IBN’s psephologist Yogendra Yadav apologising for manipulating Gujarat opinion polls? He is a big time crook and an active participant in CPM party’s events.
Search for ‘Yogendra Yadav’ in http://blogsearch.google.co.in/ to find out more.
23 May 2008 at 3:44 pm
Pragmatic,
Yogendra Yadav may have apologized for getting Gujarat elections wrong. He certainly didn’t admit or apologize for manipulating! Don’t twist his words to suit your interpretation of the truth.
Yogendra Yadav is the only pollster whose exit poll got closest to the final results of 2004 general elections and also the UP elections last year. Check out the facts, if you will please. To cast wild accusations at him without doing your homework, isn’t done.
By the same yardstick should we say that all the channels including NDTV manipulated the 2004 Lok Sabha exit polls to suit the NDA? Because ALL OF THEM GOT IT WRONG!
23 May 2008 at 4:06 pm
RANJIT CHIB: (To Yogendra Yadav) I don’t understand how you got the figures you got.
YOGENDRA YADAV: We conducted a post-poll survey in Gujarat before the results were announced. We should have trusted that data, the people were not lying to us. We just did not believe them.
RANJIT CHIB: (To Yogendra Yadav) Are you saying you fiddled it, you tampered with the data?
YOGENDRA YADAV: You spoke earlier of applying various indexes. That’s what we did. We evolved a lying and fear index of our own and applied both. That’s how 14 per cent became five per cent. So we ‘fiddled’ it. But only in the sense that you said you evolved a fiddling model in 1989 with three different factors. If that is called fiddling, I think it happens in every survey in every part of the world.
Read on…
http://www.indianexpress.com/printerFriendly/265885.html
And every one knows what spoilsport he tried to play with Karnataka polls.
23 May 2008 at 4:16 pm
This was what Dr. Yogendra Yadav, the great psephologist had to rant during Guj elections.
“…. Democracy is taking revenge on Narendra Modi. This election may well be the long deferred moment of truth for the man who invoked popular mandate to bypass norms, laws or the Constitution. We cannot yet say that he will lose this election. But a journey through Saurashtra is enough to suggest that the BJP is losing ground in this crucial region. Exit polls would measure the extent of this loss, but at this stage the indications are enough to think about what was unspeakable some time ago: Modi can lose the election.”
When you mix your personal prejudices with your profession, you end up making a joker of yourself.
My point is simple — why do you need to manipulate people’s opinion? Present it as it is. Why would you want to influence the voting by creating a confusion in their minds? He certainly knows, people like Vaish will anyway believe in whatever he serves!
23 May 2008 at 4:42 pm
awesome awesome graphic. complete with moDachu cuts visible in at the bottom of all cards. awesome job.
23 May 2008 at 4:45 pm
Look, there is something called as fear factor. You can’t expect a voter to reveal the truth to complete strangers. Like Mr. Yadav himself has stated, that it happens in every survey conducted in the world. So there are certain checks and balances to ensure fairplay of the poll, for adjusting for this fear factor.
You still did not answer my earlier question: Do you think the entire media manipulated the 2004 Lokh Sabha poll in favour of NDA because all of them got it wrong?
By the way even Yogendra Yadav’s poll was inclined towards NDA in the 2004 General election. Which means he manipulated it in favour of NDA at that time?
Your wild accusations are punctured
23 May 2008 at 7:00 pm
Why isn’t the left opposed to psephology a la astrology!?
Is it because barring the recent Panchayat election results in West Bengal, their result is static?
23 May 2008 at 7:14 pm
Vaish, I did reply to you. Churumuri is yet to moderate. Bah!
I am not going by the parties, but by the attitude of the so called greatest psephologist.
This was what Dr. Yogendra Yadav, had to rant during Guj elections.
“…. Democracy is taking revenge on Narendra Modi. This election may well be the long deferred moment of truth for the man who invoked popular mandate to bypass norms, laws or the Constitution. We cannot yet say that he will lose this election. But a journey through Saurashtra is enough to suggest that the BJP is losing ground in this crucial region. Exit polls would measure the extent of this loss, but at this stage the indications are enough to think about what was unspeakable some time ago: Modi can lose the election.”
When you mix your personal prejudices with your profession, you end up making a joker of yourself.
My point is simple — why do you need to manipulate people’s opinion? Present it as it is. Why would you want to influence the voting by creating a confusion in their minds? He certainly knows, people like Vaish will anyway believe in whatever he serves!
Apart from these, he had a shady role to play in the Knowledge commission too.
Well, what do I care about what you think? If he is god for you, be it so. I have been watching him since mid- 90s. I can certainly sense the drastic shift in his affairs. And I dont like his way of conduct as a psephologist — I would have said the same even if he had projected BJP as the clear leader.
23 May 2008 at 10:38 pm
You spoke earlier of applying various indexes. That’s what we did. We evolved a lying and fear index of our own and applied both. That’s how 14 per cent became five per cent. So we ‘fiddled’ it. But only in the sense that you said you evolved a fiddling model in 1989 with three different factors. If that is called fiddling, I think it happens in every survey in every part of the world.
a great excercise in orwellian talk.
funda remains that you start with a subjective map and then massage the interpretation as it suits you. this is a known problem with a lot of the statistics used in fields where uncertainity is not quantifiable.
that it happens everywhere in the world is no excuse. that you want to use a tool to make knock offs and sell for pretty paisa is more likely the true answer. the skill is not in knowing to use the hammer, the skill is in knowing when and where to use the hammer.
these scales that he was talking about, any science/engineering behind designing the scales?
all these pre-post-exit-polls are basically bullshit. wait for the e-machines to spill out the numbers. you wait 5 years cant wait another 5 days?
23 May 2008 at 11:21 pm
if there is so much uncertainty in the data (people lie) then i hope you realize that the math behind the analysis basically partitions the uncertainty domain in straight lines of a sub-domain. worse, actually what YY is saying, i fixed the subdomain and from that basis analyzed the data.
you might get it right. but reliability is a big question. unless you have some solid transformations where in the uncertainty cloud transforms nicely into nice and round spheres that complete the domain, stop strutting the results as if they were god own words.
because the science works in digital cameras does not mean it gives you visionary insights into the workings of a society.
24 May 2008 at 8:19 am
for all ppl criticizing CNNIBN bcos they have a pro-congress mandate,pls give me a break….just bcos ndtv this time is saying bjp they are pro -rss now is it?
hmm u peopls just know to criticise and thats all u do…wait for 25th lets see who wins
24 May 2008 at 8:37 am
Srivatsa ,
CNN IBN has lost its credibility after publishing the exit poll results as it varies with its pre poll survey.If the real exit poll figures had been published it would been a disaster for the channel as it would been the exact opposite of the pre poll .
The truth is they messed it up so badly that they had no choice but to fudge the exit poll figures also to save face.
Now we get to hear some lame excuses that the Voters have changed their minds , the candidates were not ok , there is split in votes , caste votes made a difference etc.,We have seen all these media crap for a long time.so please give us all a break.
Just a day away ?? if that satisfies you so be it.
24 May 2008 at 10:04 am
Pragmatic,
I have never once said I will believe whatever is served by Yogendra. As usual, you are putting words in my mouth.Psephology is not science at all. They use a phrase called ’systematic random’ sampling. Now how can you be systematic, yet random? Hilarious oxymoron.
I said, Yogendra yadav’s predictions have by far been the most accurate among all the other pollsters so far. For this, you need to go back and do some homework. Check out his predictions for the 2004 general elections and last years UP elections. Among all the other joker pollsters, Yogendra got closest to the final result.
You need to go by facts, not by your inbuilt prejudices.
All other pollsters too have got their predictions wrong by varying degrees, yet you single out Mr. Yogendra Yadav for floral abuses.
25 May 2008 at 10:42 am
yay…………….
25 May 2008 at 12:06 pm
BJP geltaide anta churmuri full silent agbitide ?
25 May 2008 at 4:33 pm
Deve Gowda doesn’t just fool voters, he fools pollsters too. All the polls, except that of the Week, seem to have provided decent numbers for the JDS: between 35 and 55. But Gowda seems to have stumped them all with 28.
25 May 2008 at 5:01 pm
Suvarna got it right. 104-114. tht was perfect enough.
enjoy maaadi.
25 May 2008 at 11:45 pm
my figures ( posted in this blog over the 3 stages ) was bjp 108 Congress 73 JD S 32 and independents 11.
He he he HDD and sons ditched me also.
CNN IBN has egg and crow shit on their faces.Yogi Yadav should be banned from poll projections and pre poll surveys in future.
28 May 2008 at 7:22 am
everbody dictched you, why single out HDD by 1-4 seats.
Is your computer hard-disk-drive corrupt or mind?