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Tags: BSP, Churumuri, Congress, Left, SP, UPA
This entry was posted on 25 June 2008 at 4:19 pm and is filed under Issues and Ideas. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
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25 June 2008 at 4:57 pm
the magic number being?
25 June 2008 at 8:32 pm
272 I suppose will be the constant magical number- in this instance all the ones higher than 272 are magical and indicates the Maya of Mayawati !
25 June 2008 at 9:09 pm
let us hope for the bite!
26 June 2008 at 7:51 am
JDS can also give support incase of such scenario.It has 3 members.
26 June 2008 at 9:40 am
Going.. Going…
26 June 2008 at 3:47 pm
My hunch:
Congress is determined to go ahead with the nuclear deal.
Left is going to be back in the next parliament with a sharply reduced strength.
27 June 2008 at 9:08 am
wrong fact,
what about congress.even they cannot win without allies.Niether i see congress winning many.
allies will decide the next match.If congress goes with jds as alliance in loksabha election with siddhu still in congress,then it could turn completly against bjp in karnataka though chances are bleak.
Congress chances as independednt party is weak in karnataka in next LS elections.
27 June 2008 at 12:22 pm
Sumkirla
The picture on the ground is not in synch with media hype about BJP having an upper hand in the upcoming Lokh Sabha elections.
Inflation may not be that big an issue as made out.
Inflation did not hurt cong in the recent karnataka assembly elections. Cong managed to retain 34% vote. If inflation was a big concern, then there should have been a huge negative swing against Cong. It just did not happen.
Elsewhere in the country, Cong has to woo new allies while sticking on to old ones. Whoever gets the largest number of allies will win the next elections.
In Karnataka, Cong (with or without Siddaramiah) in alliance with JDs will be a huge setback for BJP.
Sidharamiah is a plus point for Cong, but his departure will not affect the Congress in a huge way. The combined vote share of Cong and JDS is 53%…….take 2% away if Siddhu goes,,,,yet their vote share is 51% compared to 34% of BJP.
So you know which way the wind can turn in Karnataka.
27 June 2008 at 4:45 pm
Wrong Fact, if electoral politics is as simple as adding up the vote percentages, then the psephologists would have been right all the time!!!!
So dude, like I said earlier, wake up. Smell the coffee. CONgress is history. Without its allies, it is fast approaching towards being irrelevant. With 145 seats in the LS and being the clear leader in terms of the seats, it could not swing any influence. Now imagine, Congress contesting on its own and coming up with less than 145!!!!
Anyways, we have still some more time to go before the general elections. Till then dream on…….
28 June 2008 at 12:44 pm
Chintaka
If congress is history then why is it ruling India today?Congress is still alive,but its just that it has passed a glory past.
Wrong fact
Chintaka is half right when he says that electoral is about adding up vote.There are lt of things which determine elections.
Candidates,anti incumbency,caste,development and leaders.
So you just cannot add up current VS election results and predict that this party can get so and so votes.
Chintaka
saying so you are also trying to dream bit too much too early.Congress is as strong in its roots as it was 5 years back.Remember what happened in north indian states when bjp won.every one said that congress will not see day ligth there.nothing hapened.Congress is still surving,it could still trounce MP and rajasthan.
LS electons
BJP has been winning in past 4 elections in karnataka.but that is due to multi natured competation.Although its mostly between congress and bjp,jds has actually acted as a spolier every time.this can be verified by checking the election pattern.
The only hope for Congress to reverse this trend this time is to go for alliance although many sections in them are opposed to this.But given that in south karnataka fight is always between congress and jds except bangalore south,its tough ask to go for alliance with your opponents.
Chintaka – siddaramiah is very important next time for congress.
This time karnataka has fallen deeply into caste politics in rural areas.Clear demarcation is happening on caste lines.Kurubas support cannot be ignore any time.
But given any day i can say BJP caste card(showing lingayats dominance and not giving good portfolios for non lingayats) can prove costly and will not get 18 seats as it won last time.But i can jus guess.My predictions went slightly wrong in VS resuts.I could be proved wrong next time either.