CHURUMURI POLL: Will this man ever be the PM?

The decision of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) to call off its ten-year-old alliance with the BJP over seat-sharing in Orissa in the coming general elections throws a major spanner in the NDA works—and in the prime ministerial ambitions of Lalchand Kishinchand Advani.

At a time when pundits and surveys are agreed that neither the Congress nor the BJP are likely to achieve the 272-mark on their own, in fact probably not even together, the BJD move straightaway puts the NDA on the backfoot in Orissa, where there are 21 seats on offer.

Together, the BJP and BJD were expected to take between 13 and 18 seats in that State. With NDA reported to be behind the UPA nationally, even in the eyes of analysts sympathetic of the BJP like Arun Nehru (graphic, below), can the BJP make up the Orissa shortfall on its own, or make it up elsewhere in the country?

As a report in The Times of India notes:

“In one stroke, it [the BJD move] has upset BJP’s plans to emerge as leader of the biggest combination post-poll, while breathing life into the fresh power project of the Third Front which, interestingly, will be formed only on Thursday [March 12]. Apart from the loss of an ally which was expected to help the party win majority of the 21 Lok Sabha seats from Orissa yet again, the BJP has been set back also in terms of perception.”

Three caveats are in order. Caveat No. 1, politics is not a zero-sum game. Caveat No. 2, predictions have gone awfully wrong before and could do so again. Caveat No. 3, the Congress-led UPA too could see alliance partners walking away, levelling the playing field so to speak.

Still, at this juncture, it is safe to say that the BJP has far more invested in a “regime-change” that will install Advani at the helm. Indeed, in some ways, it is difficult to predict what shape and form the BJP is likely to take if it has to spend another five years on the Opposition benches after such a high-pitched campaign.

Question: At this rate, and at this point in time, does L.K. Advani look like realising his dream of becoming the prime minister of India? Or is he destined to finish second?

Graphic: courtesy Deccan Chronicle

Also read: The man who sowed the dragon seeds of hatred

A lifetime achievement award for L.K. Advani?

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60 Responses to “CHURUMURI POLL: Will this man ever be the PM?”

  1. Andy Says:

    To say anything with finality may be a bit diff now..Let me share a prediction by recently relaunched Astrological Magazine : The BJP will head the next government at the Centre.

    Well, this prediction seems to be the only ‘good news’ for BJP so far !

  2. Naveen Says:

    If JD(U) walks out of NDA then for sure Advani will never be India’s PM.

  3. D P SATISH Says:

    It looks like the day of third alternative!

  4. Vinay Says:

    Looks like we’re going to have a ‘third front’ this time. But I have serious doubts on whether that ‘Third Front’ will last for even one year.

  5. Ram Says:

    What Naidu has said is correct, BJP and Congress are no more national parties. They are also regional parties with presence all over but with no support.

  6. Trayambakam Shastri Says:

    Prediction by Astrological magazine are as accurate as anyone else’s prediction. Even the founder of the magazine Dr B V Raman has goofed up many times on his annual predictions. Some of these prediction turn true based on the law of averages.
    Advani as PM is highly unlikely. A plural indian polity cannot afford to have a hardliner like the advani. There is one striking pattern on Indian PMs. Most of the Indian PMs are pluralistic and non-controversial and wear very pleasant acceptable masks. Vajpayee was a good mask for BJP but alas he is now too old and senile. The only exceptions to this is Mrs Gandhi during emergency but that was in the pre coalition era. Even Our own Gowda was chosen as he was non controversial, politically less powerful and acceptable to the ruling coalition. So is Manmohan singh who has never even won a panchayat election.
    Advani cannot wash off his extremist history by crying in interviews, proclaiming Jinnah as secular or writing a huge book of useless information. BJP should instead project another leader maybe Sushma Swaraj or some other young person. They can hope to get some allies by this way.

  7. Simple Says:

    For all their ‘deep’ insights, their so called touch with ground reality, Political pundits suffer from ‘herd’ mentality.

    Today DNA has come up with their estimates.
    Few days back Times of India had their own version.
    Arun Nehru does a periodical estimate
    CNN IBN also had done a surveyof its own, a couple of weeks back.

    All of them point to UPA having its nose ahead, but with varying degrees.

    Nobody has said NDA is a frontrunner.

    This happened before the BJD split away from NDA.

    Now, post the split, the odds are even more loaded against NDA.

    Political ‘pundits’ are predicting the comeback of Jayalalitha in TN.

    I am amazed at their naivette.

    Nobody can predict anything in TN until the alliances are clear.

    DMDK has not indicated which way it will swing. The alliance which nets DNDK will have a clear edge over the other.

  8. Prashanth Says:

    Well, its question of survival for India during bad financial times..

    Congress though in power for last 5 years, didn’t do much to create employments.. It was left parties who did some work by stopping congress from going on selling spree, if left was not partner of UPA for over 4 years, by now, half of the PSU’s would have been sold to Italian mafia and other congress henchmen.

    I won’t go with the analysis you are presenting, situation is far different from what is been understood, there is a growing unhappiness among masses, price rise, terrorism, national security, financial meltdown, loss of jobs etc., With delimitation exercise for most of the constituencies, its very hard to predict who is going to be the winner. People of India have 3 options.

    1. Congress – god knows what will be the state of affairs if congress back in power.
    2. BJP – some work, but should restrain from communilisation of government.
    3. 3rd front – god only can save India if leaders like mayavati becomes PM with their existing credibility/

  9. Goldstar Says:

    I hope they will legalise some good old-fashioned betting on the elections and the post election drama. At least, the people can win some money and derive some satisfcation.

  10. Not A Witty Nick Says:

    The third alternative!

    Deve Gowda!

    Mayawati!

    Laloo Prasad Yadav!

    Sitaram Yechury!

    Jayalalithaa!

    Ram Vilas Paswan!

    Jyoti Basu!

    Nitish Kumar!

    Sharad Pawar!

    Chandrababu Naidu!

    Who else? Put their names and shoot the dart!

  11. Gururaj B.N. Says:

    There is a smirk of “I told you so” on the face of Churumuri folks! With Jaya Amma, Nitish Kumar, BJD, Shiv Sena, Kalyan Singh, old companion TDP parting company with BJP, the chances of BJP coming to power seems dim. He may remain the prime minister in waiting for the rest of his life, which may not be much considering the fact that he is already an octogenarian. I am certain that he would have made better prime minister than either Dr.Manmohan “timid” Singh or other non-entities like Gujral, Gowda et al.

  12. Karihaida Says:

    If Mayawati bags big numbers in UP, she will be PM (We are doomed but thats a different issue).

    @Goldstar,
    If there is sufficient interest, Intrade (http://www.intrade.com/) could start a contract.

  13. Nanu Nane Says:

    Don’t think Advani would be a great PM anyway.

  14. Ashoka Says:

    Thank God

    L K Advani will remain the PM in waiting for the rest of his life.
    We have suffered enough of his Post Rath Yatra effects.. and surely don’t want more of the same.

  15. Bamboo Basappa Says:

    The PM possibles of the ‘Third front’ send me into dizzy. Jayalalita, Yechury,Paswan God save us….

  16. sriranga Says:

    this election will be a waste of time and money for country. definitely no one can prevent the third front from to coming to power this time. We’ll see a new prime minister every 6 months for sometime.

  17. smart Says:

    I feel that the situation in Orissa is being interpreted wrongly. There is an anti incumbency wave going on in the state along with a pro hindutva wave. The violence that happened in Kandhamal could not have happened without the latter and such incidents only intensify such feelings. At such a time, BJP stands to gain by distancing itself from BJD which has come to be seen as responsible for the stagnation of Orissa even in a time of high growth in the rest of India. BJP going it alone now, might give it space to negotiate with other parties after the elections. At least in orissa.

  18. Jilebi Says:

    Ashoka. What you have suffered post Rath Yathra?

  19. Tathagata Mukherjee Says:

    0.0: UPA Govt will become minority in next few days (PMK, others are to walk out showing Cong don’t have winnability)

    0.1 BJD has not joined the 3rd front. CPIM has 1 seat in Orissa. 0.75% vote.

    1. JDU will not walk off NDA, because Nitish’s Govt will fall. 3 new allies joined BJP in last 3 weeks- AGP, INLD, Ajit Singh.

    2. Once whole of North India, Karnataka was ruled by Janta Parivaar- BJP eat them up slow and steady. Now only one state is ruled by a Janta Parivar Dal- Bihar, that too with help of BJP.

    BJP has ideology and cadre and staying power. Only Communists can match BJP. But for CPIM, it has not been able to reconcile development with ideology as successfully done by BJP/ While Buddha Bhattacharya has been a total failure, Modi is #1.

    3rd Front will never materialize because:

    3) CPIM/Left (and Lalu) will be biggest casualty of this election- their seat will be almost halved- down to 30-35 as its going to loose heavily in WB/Kerala.

    4) 3rd front is an idea floated by CPIM to inflate their presence in Delhi as their numbers are dwindling rapidly WITH NO NEW STATES BEING ADDED IN LAST 60 YEARS.

    5) Largest party will be called to form the Govt. BJP should get at least 10 seats more than CongI.

    All upa allies except Cong, Lalu, and ALL 3rd front allies (AIADMK, TDP) will jump to BJP bandwagon.

    Maya will support BJP is Cong/SP sweeps poll in UP.
    Mamta will NEVER support 3rd front- but may remain neutral thus support BJP led NDA when voting.

    6). Cong will be loosing something like 40 seats in Andhra & TN and will not be able to make it up elsewhere. There is a possibility of Cong reduced to 2 digit.

    States where Cong will loose major seats:
    Andhra (Cong’s loss will reduce its own # of seats)
    TN
    Assam
    Bihar

    BJP/NDA add seats in:
    Assam
    Bihar
    Jharkhand (it has 0 seat now)
    Maharashtra
    Gujarat

    There is not a single state where BJP will loose major seats.

    So, its advantage BJP.

    ***

    >>Advani as PM is highly unlikely. A plural indian polity cannot afford to have a hardliner like the advani.

    Who oversaw killing of 3000 sikhs in Delhi alone? If Guj was genocide, Delhi 84 was 3Xgenocide.
    Who opened gate of Ayodhya?
    Who overturned Shah Banu?
    Who allowed Shilanyas at Ayodhya?
    Who started Campaign from Ayodhya?

    Not Advani. If Rajiv G is not the most hardliner Indian PM, why Advani will be termed so?

    Or head I win, tail you loose? huh?

  20. Goldstar Says:

    @Bamboo Basappa

    The PM possibles of the ‘Third front’ send me into dizzy. Jayalalita, Yechury,Paswan God save us….

    You meant ‘Gowda’ save us, didn’t you :-) ?! Just kidding…

  21. Ashoka Says:

    Thank heavens.. Third front leaders should declare Mayawati Madam as prime ministerial candidate.. and she will teach a lesson to all those pro-upper caste parties. I am eager to know the reaction of “saffron brigade” of churumuri viz. palahalli, sandesh, kaharapriya, gururaj etc..

  22. harkol Says:

    Having been a BJP voter all my life, I sincerely hope BJP loses heavily in this election. All these elections, I voted for BJP for the quality of leadership Vajpayee presented.

    But, now it is fully evident that BJP is nothing but the “Good Taliban” representation of “Bad taliban” like Sriram Senes. I don’t want my country to go the Pakistan way. From here on I will not vote for BJP till it reforms entirely.

    While Congress is a party that represents worst of Vamsh Boghi politics, unfortunately it is our best bet today. Only hope we had better candidates and leaders than Congress has today. But, I will vote congress this time, because Manmohan has done enough to earn my respect.

    Ashoka: The only way Mayawati Madam will win anywhere close to the numbers she needs is by the support of Upper castes. The moment she looses upper castes, she’ll get back to being a side player.

  23. Ashoka Says:

    Harkol

    You seem to be right regarding Mayawati. Wishful thinking on my part.

    But rightly said Advani is strictly a No-NO.

  24. Palahalli Says:

    harkol – If this country does not harden up, it will go the Taliban way.

  25. Goldstar Says:

    @Ashoka,

    Did u read that Dalits were butchered in your ideal land of Dravidistan aka Tamil Nadu?

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/2-Dalits-hacked-to-death-in-Tamil-Nadu/articleshow/4238085.cms

    Of course, the news doesn’t which caste people killed them… but in South TN, close to Madurai… it is obvious, isn’t it?

    Did you read, from what I suggested earlier in other posts, that the worst offenders against Dalits are PMK and DMK?

  26. Vinay Says:

    harkol:

    Yes, even I used to be a BJP supporter but I am not so sure anymore. These numerous Vanara Senas get wings the moment the BJP is in charge. (No disrespect to the original Vanara Sena, what I mean here is a Sena composed of people with the intelligence of Vanaras).

    But all the same, prepare to be assailed from all sides by the Bokachoda brotherhood for your comment. :-)

  27. Karihaida Says:

    If its a non BJP gov’t we can kiss goodbye to economic growth. The moment a non BJP gov’t comes to power start hoarding gold (and may be USD, JPY).

  28. Goldstar Says:

    Now that everybody is making their disclosures :) , here is mine:

    I am a converted-to-Congress supporter in the national election, simply for the Nuclear Deal. That, in my opinion, was a great achievement. BJP lost my support because they didn’t support the deal and were doing cheap politics. LK Advani lost a chance to be a statesman.

    I am still a BJP supporter in Karn ataka, though. They deserve a chance after four years of anti-development, anti-urban misrule of the JD-S.

  29. Goldstar Says:

    And yeah, Commies need to be kicked. I don’t mind whether the BJP does it or the Congress

  30. Vinay Says:

    Goldstar:

    Actually, I agree with you 200%. We probably need to give Yeddi a lil’ more time here to show what stuff he’s made of. I am hoping that all the Vanara Senas are reined in though…

    And yes, the commies need to go the way of the dodo!!

  31. harkol Says:

    Goldstar:

    Entirely with you. Third front will be a disaster. BJP is better than TF.

    Palahalli:
    This country definitely needs to harden up. But, not in the way BJP is pushing things. We have nothing to gain by the attacks of the kind BJP has been tacitly supporting. It is not hardening the country in anyway, it is just dividing and polarizing it.

    The right way to harden this country is by removing the avenues for corruption. In Mangalore, with a lot of hope we used to vote for BJP for past quarter century, but it brought in the congress culture with the Help of Mr. Mahajan!! Now it represents the worst of Congress and Worst of Taliban as well.. They have the guts to support & Justify the people who hit our women, vandalize churches in institutions that gave us good education!! I am ashamed that they call themself Hindus.

    BJP needs a very hard lesson it won’t forget in a hurry. They have to realize that dividing this country won’t take them anywhere. VHP & other senes need to go the the way Ku-Klux-Klan went in US. Once filtered of these elements, BJP will again become a fantastic alternative.

    Till then to Keep out the commies, Congress is the only choice.

  32. Tathagata Mukherjee Says:

    >>But, now it is fully evident that BJP is nothing but the “Good Taliban” representation of “Bad taliban” like Sriram Senes.

    What was Sheela Dixit doing with Muthalik 3 days AFTER Mangalore incident?

    Those who never spoke against growing talibanization in south asia for last 2-3 decades for minority vote are the same groups who now raise “talibanization of karnatak” for votebank politics.

    Its extension of equating terrorism with ‘communalism’ agenda of psuedos. Its justifying terrorism because of a strange belief- if terrorism is condemned, it offends muslims. Or if terrorism has to be condemned, Hindus must also be conemned.

    Pitting minority, using muslims religiously as a votebank against/for a political party is extremely dangerous in any society. Its doing incalculable harm at the grassroots.

  33. Tathagata Mukherjee Says:

    * corrected:

    >>BJP needs a very hard lesson it won’t forget in a hurry. They have to realize that dividing this country won’t take them anywhere. VHP & other senes need to go the the way Ku-Klux-Klan went in US.

    I know one Prime Minister has stated inside parliament that a particular religious group has first rights on resource. He does not belong to BJP/Shiv Sena.

    Who is a articulating a facist poistion here? Congress Party, or BJP/SS?

    Or is it, heads I win, tail you loose? Once again?

  34. Palahalli Says:

    I wish you luck harkol.

    If you think you’ll have peace and stability without the VHP/Hindu Orgs, you’re welcome to this wishful thinking.

    I should also say gross exaggeration is not helpful.
    ****
    “Till then to Keep out the commies, Congress is the only choice.”

    – I wonder how.

    Btw, any dispensation that will ultimately give us Modi, is what I’ll vote for.

  35. alvaa matte Says:

    Harkol

    [[ You said: They have the guts to support & Justify the people who hit our women, vandalize churches in institutions that gave us good education!! I am ashamed that they call themself Hindus.
    ]]

    Where did you get this information?
    FYI, Shri Rama Sene, is not BJP, and RSS and LK Advani have already commented on this issue.

    Please dont get mis-informed. I think “pseudo-media” news made an effect on you (unfortunately)!

  36. kannadiga:) Says:

    Advani is a guy known for vacillation on many important issues. He was the guy who gave Musharraf a new lease of life, when his unmentionables were being squeezed by uncle sam to deliver on promises he made on WOT. He also backtracked from brining out a white paper on the pakistani perfidy stating that it would vitiate the atmosphere and will not be conducive for the ongoing piss process. All in all Advani, was a paper tiger who tried to pass himself off as Iron Man II, but failed. Vajpayee never trusted him on important issues, not even on Pokhran II, when it was conducted.

    I would any day vote for Modi as PM.

  37. bomma Says:

    “Till then to Keep out the commies, Congress is the only choice.”

    :)

  38. Tathagata Mukherjee Says:

    >>The only way Mayawati Madam will win anywhere close to the numbers she needs is by the support of Upper castes.

    1. Mayavati is the major leader outside NDA who campaigned FOR MODI during Guj 2002 in Guj elections.

    2. Its sickening to see caste becoming a perpetual political tool. It was not position of Ambedkar (who was treated badly by Congress – so much so Ambedkar had to go to the constituent assembly from Bengal, not from Maharashtra, UP, Bihar), or Nehru, or SP Mookerjee/Deendayal/ Golwalkar, or EMS Namboodhiripads.

    Here is some interesting twists:

    1) Kandhamal: nowhere BJD has raised Kandhamal issue, or blamed that for breaking up ties with BJP.

    Sheela Bhat, usually pro cong, also acknowledged that. Still, there are psuedos, who need to oil their own machine of ’secularism’:

    http://news.rediff.com/column/2009/mar/11/guest-naveen-patnaik-master-stroke-in-orissa.htm

    2) 3rd front: First, BJD said- they are not joining 3rd front. Now, they are not tying up with CPIM/JMM/NCP either in pre-poll alliance (where does that leave Yechuri’s hadshake with Naveen Babu in Bhubaneswar? )

    http://www.telegraphindia.com/1090311/jsp/nation/story_10655953.jsp

    Here is some interesting twists: 1) Kandhamal: nowhere BJD has raised Kandhamal issue, or blamed that for breaking up ties with BJP. Sheela Bhat, usually pro cong, also acknowledged that. Still, there are psuedos, who need to oil their own machine of ‘secularism': http://news.rediff.com/column/2009/mar/11/guest-naveen-patnaik-master-stroke-in-orissa.htm 2) 3rd front: First, BJD said- they are not joining 3rd front. Now, they are not tying up with CPIM/JMM/NCP either in pre-poll alliance (where does that leave Yechuri’s hadshake with Naveen Babu in Bhubaneswar? ) http://www.telegraphindia.com/1090311/jsp/nation/story_10655953.jsp

    Destroy caste before it destroys communities and country.

  39. Pulikeshi the last Says:

    Foolishness on the part of the founders of the country. A mostly uneducated population of over one billion and still counting. Parlimentary and state legislature seats up for sale. The fake IT-BT prosperity is over. There is no end in sight for our suffering. Advani or Rahul or Kumaraswamy–there is going to be no appreciable change. Singing “Vandemataram” or saying “Jay ho” are the silly practices we are resorting to.

    Let’s protect the young from the cesspool of corruption. Then there might be some hope.

  40. Simple Says:

    Thathaghata

    Your analysis is clearly prejudiced.

    BJP will lose in :

    MP – because it is already saturated there compared tolast time
    Rajasthan – same reason
    Kashmir – NC-Cong alliance will sweep all six seats
    Karnataka- if cong Jds have seat adjusments here and there, BJP will not repeat its 18 seats of last time
    Andhra – zero
    TN- zero
    Kerala-zero
    West Bengal -zero
    Entire north east – zero
    Orissa – drastic fall in seats after break up with BJD
    Maharashtra – Raj Thackeray will ensure BJP Sena alliance suffers by weaning away 5% votes.
    Gujarat – Cong still holds 40-43% vote share in Gujarat. Pundits will be suprised at Cong gains
    Chattisgarh – Cong was wiped out last time. This time vote difference between two parties is just 2%. So Cong will gain.

    Assam
    Bihar – although very tough considering RJD LJP and Cong are back in alliance.
    Himachal –
    Uttaranchal

    On the other hand, Cong will gain in

    1. Orissa – massive gains , thanks to BJD split
    2. Kerala – massive gains thanks to misrule and infigthing of Left
    3. West Bengal- massive gains thanks to TC and Cong alliance.
    4. Karnataka – good gains if JDS tie up materialises
    5. Andhra – Chiru will cut into TD votes, indirectly helping congress
    6. Maharashtra – Raj thackeray will split BJP sena votes
    7.Rajashtan – a gain of at least ten seats
    8. MP – BJP lost 5% vote share in last years assembly elections. so Cong gains
    9. Chattisgarh – Cong narrowed gap between itself and BJP in assembly polls.
    10. Punjab- Punjabis love Manmohan singh – they will vote for him massively for his PMship
    11.Haryana- Cong on a high. state govt. doing well. so good gains here
    12. If PMK and DMDK join Cong DMK alliance, be sure of this alliance netting 80% seats in Tamil Nadu.

    Bottomline: Massive advantage to UPA

  41. Tathagata Mukherjee Says:

    >>Karnataka – good gains if JDS tie up materialises

    When Devegowda is launching 3rd front in Karnataka, how he will tie up with Congi? huh?

    PMK is withdrawing support from UPA Govt in next 2-3 days, making it minority. Do you follow TN politics, or no? Eveybody knows Ambumani is going to resign.

    My basic analysis was based on one fact: SINGLE LARGEST PARTY will be called to form the Govt. BJP has better chance to reach there than Cong.

    Last time Sonia was called to form the Govt NOT BECAUSE OF UPA, but Congi got 6 seats more than BJP.

    Cong swept Andhra (where it will loose hald seats this time) and TN (Jaya swept away). Cong will loose on both states as well as its partners.

    The loss of Cong will be close to 35-40 in Andhra & TN which it wll NOT makeup anywhere.

    All UPA , 3rd front allies barring CPIM, Cong, Lalu will join NDA when that happens.

    West Bengal: Mamata will support Cong ONLY IF Cong tightens noose around CPIM. Chances are, Cong will need CPIM- so deal with Mamta are out. If CPIM looses too many seats which will happen if TMC-Cong unites, its advantage TMC. Not Cong. Without TMC, Cong will not be able to retain present 6 seats.

    Orissa- Cong seat can increase marginally. BJD has to support NDA post election. BJP will reduce its seat by 3-4.

    The only state where Cong will increase its tally is Kerala. BJP had no seats there.

    BJP seat will increase in

    Assam
    Bihar (UPA got 75% seat last time, will be reduced to 30-35%)
    UP (Ajit Singh ally)
    Jharkhand (it has 0 seat now)
    Maharashtra
    Gujarat

    Will it be sufficient to reduce the gap of 6? I think so.

    Biggest looser will be:
    CPIM
    Lalu

    3rd front is out. It was never in. BJP and Cong fights, and allies will jump whichever the way it goes unless they have local compulsion (Lalu-Nitish can’t be on same boat/ DMK-AIADMK cannot be on same boat….)

    ***

    >>Massive advantage to UPA

    There is nothing called UPA. Even Cong has clarified that to Pawar.

    Sonia was called to form the govt because Cong was single largest party.

  42. harkol Says:

    Alvaa matte:

    Being from Mangalore, my information on BJP is pretty solid.

    Mangalore went the BJP way (then Janata party) after Indiragandhi Imposed emergency on this country. Congress has not condemned and appologised for Emergency for 30 years, which was a strong reason for me to never vote for Congress, and for being staunch BJP person.

    But, an objective assessment of how BJP has taken DK for granted is what has made me think it needs to be told where to behave.

    BJP conveniently calls Srirama Sene, VHP etc as not part of itself, just as Pakistan blames “Non-state actors”. But, the fact remains when push comes to shove, BJP supports them.

    How did BJP president support Pragya Singh on national television??

    Palahalli/Thathagata:

    I am not saying Congress is a saintly organization. Far from it. Its minority appeasement is worrisome, but in recent years BJP has become a horrible organization. I don’t think I’ll remain a staunch Congress voter, but I want to see BJP reformed.

    I don’t mind they being a right wing Hindu organization, I have voted for them all my life knowing they are a wing of RSS. My disgust is with the way they are mis-interpreting Hinduism and going and beating up people for just enjoying their life or associating and supporting organizations that do etc. who beat up people out of our constitutional framework.

    Do you think ABVP has any business to go and beat a Prof. to death? Or for that matter ransack university offices etc??

    If we remain tied to our ideological partisanship, then these parties will take us for granted as Mangalore has been taken for granted by BJP. It needs to suffer an electoral defeat for it to understand we can’t be taken for granted.

  43. Janasamanya Says:

    This state re-starts the debate of how about a Cong + BJP Govt. provided the regional paalegars backtrack or take whatever is thrown to them. Very interesting position indeed.

  44. Palahalli Says:

    harkol, I don’t understand this, but you don’t seem to mind rowdy youth Congress workers or Commie students raising hell. Why? Because that did not get publicity? Mangalore also witnessed a “kidnapping”, did it not?

    If I were you, I would choose an Independent candidate. Would you agree?

  45. Goldstar Says:

    I would agree with TM’s analysis. If BJP gets a majority over Congress, all the minor parties will jump into the “new” NDA. That includes BSP, AIADMK, NCP, BJD, TDP/TRS, and JD-s.

    People can predict the election but there is no way anyone can predict what will happen post-election. How many people honestly predicted the July 22nd trust vote?? After this election, we will see bartering and horse-trading to the extent that the trust vote would be a garden-party.

  46. harkol Says:

    Palahalli: You miss the point. We are forced to make a choice amount the bad options. And at this time I choose to go with Congress if only to teach BJP a lesson. It doesn’t mean I like congress.

    I wouldn’t go with an Independent candidate. It’d be akin to supporting commies/Thrid front. Whom I disapprove even more!!

    Here is my preference for this election (mind you only this election).

    1. Congress
    2. BJP
    3. None of the Above – if the candidates by both are real bad and if Supreme court allows this option.

    In future if BJP presents me an option of a dynamic but non-talibanistic leadership, then my instinctive vote will be for BJP. LKA is not that leader. Unfortunately Modi can’t be, though he looks very attractive from development standpoint. So, I suspect a new leadership will have to come to the fore within BJP to win my vote at national level.

    I wish congress does something about their moronic leaders. They all look and act like zombies. Our choice seems to be between zombies versus thugs. I suppose I’ll settle for zombies.

  47. Tathagata Mukherjee Says:

    >>Advani is a guy known for vacillation on many important issues.

    This is 100% safed jhut. Advani is the ONLY leader who does not change, vacillate.

    Advani never took u-turn on Jinnah episode
    Advani never took u-turn on Ayodhya movement
    Advani never took u-turn on Babri demolition.

    White paper on ISI’s activities was not brought out because intelligence agencies advised not to do so.

    Those who read newspapers very closely and think little bit deeper know all these. ISI’s involvement may have been a issue in 1990s, but today’s its crystal clear- so obvious, its a non issue.

    Here are some ISI involvement , compiled from report of newspapers:

    funding terror
    drug trade
    counterfeit indian currency
    funding underworld
    funding politicians
    funding terror thro’ bootleg dvd
    funding terror to illegal cow transport
    ….

    Harkol>>Do you think ABVP has any business to go and beat a Prof. to death? Or for that matter ransack university offices etc??
    ———–

    Dr. Santosh Bhattachaya, an internationally reputed economist, was VC of Calcutta University in mid 1980s for 5 years. SFI, State Govt Employees Unions associated with CPIM did not allow him to enter his office at university Campus for 5 years, physically attacking him, breaking his car, abusing with choicest language, many a times. Police did not do anything. Jyoti Basu supported the action of SFI/employees union inside and outside assembly.

    What was Dr. Bhattacharya’s crime? Though he was eminent economist, he was not a believer of Communism. So, CPIM unleashed terror.

    So, my friend- student bodies are used for political purpose by all. The difference here is: nobody from RSS (parent of abvp) ever supported killing of a pricipal the way Basu supported goondaism in the campus.

    Want to clean up student politics? Implement Lingdo Committee report.

  48. Palahalli Says:

    harkol – Hope you recognize this point. The more we keep voting in Secular-Liberal regimes, the harder the reaction will be.

    At one point, you will keep wanting a “non-Taliban -(Whatever that may or may not mean)” Hindu leadership and voting Secular-Liberals in…at the other, Hindu reaction will keep mounting and then, before long, you just might get what you never bargained for.

  49. Simple Says:

    Thathaghata

    in 2004 BJP had 24 partners, today in 2009 BJP has less than 10 partners!

    After the BJD split in Orissa, the NDA (National Disaappearing Alliance) is in tatters!

    Shiv Sena has OPENLY declared that Advani is not their PM candidate. They want a UPA leader called SHarad Pawar as their PM candidate

    Nitish Kumar is calling the shots in Bihar. He is heaping insults on BJP and getting powerful with each passing day. BJP better listen to Nitish, or it will be friendless in Bihar. ANother big blow to Advani’s PMship.
    BJP has to concede some seats to JDU, thereby reducing BJPs power in Bihar to single digit

    Last assembly elections JDU and BJP won , because, RJD and LJP were not togehter. This time Cong RJD and LJP are fighiing it togethere. Therefore there will be only marginal loss to UPA in bihar. Their combined vote perecentage is 5% higher than NDA in bhihar.

    In Tamil Nadu, Radmoss HAS NEVER SAID he wil got with AIADMK. He ahs made two statements. One statement saying that he will remain with UPA and the other satement saying that he will take decision in few days time.

    Nowehre has he said he will go with AIADMK. Don’t make a fool of yourself by saying things he has not said.

    DMDK is set to join DMDK allliance because Vijayakanth hates Jayalalitha more than Karunandihi.

    In Andhra Pradesh, BJP will get zero seats. So don’t jump with joy. Whatever anti incumbency vote YSR has, it will be negated by Chirus party.
    So massive advantage to Cong.

    In karnataka, there will be a secret understanding between JDS and Cong, For example Bangalore central, JDS has openlysaid that they will withdraw their candidate in Jaffer Sharief stands. Similialry, in tumkur Cong has indicated it will have a weak candidate against JDS candidate..

    This secret understanding is bound to created losses for BJP

    BJP will lose in Rajasthan by about 10 seats. It will lose MP by about five seats lesser than last time.

    BJP will bite dust in J &K.

    BJP will be marginalised in west bengal (huge gainst to cong adn TC)

    BJP will be decimated in Kerala and TN.

    Ajit singh is a fringe player in UP having just 5% vote share in western UP. AJit Singh has lost all crediblity by swinging wildly with all parties. BJP is set to lose by aligning with a marginal player like Ajit Singh.

    With 19% vote share in Orissa, and Cong around 40% vote share , you can safely say BJP will get ZERO seats in Orissa.

    Where is the BJP gaining from?

    Small states like HImachal and Assam!

    The NDA (National Disintegrating ALliance) is a disaster even before the elections begin.

    In Maharashtra, Raj Thackeray will ensure that BJP sena suffers.

    SO in all likelehood, BJP looks set to get about 20 seats lesser than last time. While Cong looks set to win 20 seats more than last time.

    WIth a gap of 40 seats between Cong and BJP, it is anybodys guess who will be called to form gov.t.

    UPA will win hands down.

    BJP has got only marginal parties like AGP, RLD, INLD with them.

    The bigger ones like TDP, BJP, TC, AIADMK have fled the sinking ship long back.

    As elections draw closer, more and more NDA constitutents wil desert the sinking BJP ship.

  50. Coffee addict Says:

    Karnataka – BJP 14, Congress 11, JDS 3 OR BJP 13, Congress 11 and JDS 4

    TN – DMK/Cong – 15, AIADMK & others – 25 (including Pondicherry)

    Kerala – UDF – 15, LDF 5

    A.P – Cong – 17, Others 25

  51. Tathagata Mukherjee Says:

    >>The NDA (National Disintegrating ALliance) is a disaster even before the elections begin.

    You seem to be one of those whose sole goal is to defeat BJP. In your dream you think, Mamta-CPIM, DMK-AIADMK, CPIM-Cong (Kerela), Cong-TDP all will join hand to fulfil your dream.

    We know the reasons behind this type of hate-BJP campaign.

    As long as this type of hate-BJP campaign spreads, its going to help BJP even more on the ground, harden people and BJP’s pre-eminence today.

    Neither Ayodhya will ever be rebuilt, or Modi will be hanged, or …..it can only do more damage to the grassroot, thus help BJP’s project in the long term.

    NDA gave best governance in living memory. Whether you like it or not, NDA’s policy on governance, development, foreign policy will continue to be driving India for next few decades.

    There is no excape from these facts.

  52. Simple Says:

    Tathaghata,

    You seem to be one of those who sole aim in life is to defeat Cong I. You have delusions about NDA winning the 2009 elections, so deluded that you begin to attribute statemetns to me, that I HAVE NEVER SAID.

    WHEN DID I SAY that Mamta and Left will come togther ? tsk tsk.

    The NDA (Nationally Dying Alliance) gave us the worst ever govt in india.

    Indian economy grew by a lousy 5% in NDA’s five years, while UPA gave us a faboulous 8.5% average.

    Today, you should be grateful for congress for computeraisation, liberalisation, nuclerisation and a 100 other things.

    BJP is intent on pulling us back to 18th century, while Cong was to take us to the next century.

    The more you guys hate and villify cong, the more cong becomes stronger. So please go ahead and bash Cong.

  53. Tathagata Mukherjee Says:

    >>BJP is intent on pulling us back to 18th century, while Cong was to take us to the next century.

    Next century ? By which means? Sending daughters/sisters to the Pub in the name of women lib? There are some morons who support that BECAUSE SRS opposed it. But keep mum when Sheela Dixit shared dias with Muthalik !

    Fact of the matter is: Read this newsitem and jusdge yourself:

    http://mangalorean.com/news.php?newstype=local&newsid=115859

    “Pub attack episode has taught a good lesson to the youth who have been misled or have forgotten their culture,” said Shiruru Mutt Seer Lakshmivaratheertha Swamiji.
    With regard to the pub attack, he said that though there are section of people who have been condemning the attack, there are larger number of people who are happy that the incident happened as there was a need to teach the youngsters to mend their way.”

    ——————

    >>Indian economy grew by a lousy 5% in NDA’s five years, while UPA gave us a faboulous 8.5% average.

    The building blocks of 8% growth were 6 year NDA rule. However, today, its under threat because of policies of UPA.

    Sonia on one hand supporting permit-control-raj of Indira era, as well as MM Singh as a liberator. This farce of riding two horses will be pricked by people.

    Cong is root cause behind partition. Now lecturing ‘secularism’!
    Cong primary reason for festering Kashmir wound
    Cong is primary reason for disasterous China policy.
    Cong handed over Tibet to China.
    Cong’s disastrous non-alignment policy (only Bhutan, Seycheles supported India during 1971 Bangladesh war).
    Cong is root cause behind economic situation, so much poverty.
    Emergency
    Dynasty…..and now rallying minorities as votebank as well diving Hindus along caste. Ambedkar was shunted out.
    Ayodhya
    Shah Banu…….

    Better, it would be to say- NEHRU GANDHI FAMILY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE. As there were (are) leaders in Cong who could have resolved these issues long time back. BEST PMs ALWAYS CAME OUTSIDE GANDHI-NEHRU family- PV, Vajpayee.

    Just one mistake of Gandhi Baba landed us in this soup- wish he chose Sardar instead of Nehru.

    BTW, Cong is clearly unnerved by rise of 3rd front. Its vote will be divided and BJP will be clear winner.

  54. Simple Says:

    Thathaghata

    Going to pubs is a cong culture? probably yu haven’t heard of several BJP members including Sushma Swaraj that her daughter goes to pubs and she has no problem with it.

    Cong gave us first Hindu nuclear bomb.

    Cong gave us economic liberalisation.

    Cong gave us privatisation.

    Cong gave us computers.

    Cong gave fillip to space technology.

    Cong gave us nuclearisation.

    Cong gave us the high flying lifestyle yu are so used to today

    Cong gave us RTI

    Cong gave us green revolution

    Cong made Bangalore the IT city of the world.

    ANy person who has gratitude will accept this.

    NDA’s lousy five percent growth was helped by the opening up of the economy of Cong under Narasimha Rao

    Under NDA, India was not among the top economic powerhouses.

    Today, India is known as the Asian tiger and secong fastest economy in the world.

  55. Gururaj B.N. Says:

    Dear Simple,

    Congress also gave us the following:

    Partition of India,
    Arrogant bureaucracy,
    Kashmir Problem,
    Five year plans,
    Dynastic rule,
    97.5% corporation tax in 1974,
    Emergency,
    86 Presidential rules in the States,
    Licence permit Raj,
    Sikh Militancy of 80s

    This is just a trailer, without touching the petty politics nurtured by Congress in the States.

    Congress
    Shah Bano case,

  56. Simple Says:

    Gururaj

    Everything has to be seen in balance.

    Give credit to Cong for Revolutionary acts like economic liberalisation, nuclearisation, green revolution, computerisation.

    Of course, Cong has gifted the nation with few ills too. But you must see it in the right perspective.

    For instance, dyansty rule is not just a Cong culture, it is an Indian culture.

    you are insulting Indians by saying it is a bad thing.

    Indian people have welcomed dynastic successor whether in politics or films or medicine or any other field.

    Peolle have made Sanjay Dutt (son of a film star) a success.

    People have made Abhishek Bachchan (son of a film star) a sucess.

    People made Indira Gandhi (daughter of a PM) a success

    Please don’t demean Indian culture.

  57. B.N.Gururaj Says:

    Dear Simple,

    I am glad that you don’t disagree with me except on the issue of dynastic rule. Strictly speaking, if father, son and grand son continue in public life by democratic methods, none can object. As long as the successive generations can face elections and come to power, I do not find anything objectionable. Instance is of George Bush Sr, and George.W.Bush. But, in Congress culture, everyone is appointed. None is elected. There is no democracy at all in congress. It has been so since the days of Pt.Nehru, though he was a better democrat than his successors. In early fifties, he forced the then Congress President Purushottam Das Tandan to resign, with his threat of resigning to the Prime Ministership. Democracy in congress is skin deep. Hence, dynastic rule in congress is more harmful to public life are large.

    With all its ills and shortcomings, democracy is any day preferrable to any other form of rule.

  58. Simple Says:

    Gururaj

    The Congress of today is not like the Congress of last century.

    All the so called ills of congress can be traced to the old congress. But under UPA, cong has performed pretty well without the baggage of the past ills.

    You said in congress culture, everyone is appointed, no one is selected.

    For your information. Indira, Rajeev, Sonia, Rahul Gandhi were all democratically elected by the people of India.
    Nobody was appointed.

    But yes, if you think CMs are appointed, if you feel state presidents of congress parties are appointed, then i agree.

    it is this appointment of leaders which is causing cong to go lose ground in states like UP and Bihar

  59. Simple Says:

    Gururaj

    While i grant cong the negatives, you should be gracious enough to give cong the credit where it is due.

  60. kschaitanya Says:

    http://www.saynotoadvani.blogspot.com/

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