At the time of the assembly elections in Karnataka last year, churumuri.com conducted what used to be the norm in Indian journalism but has become a rarity: an old-fashioned, gumshoe, grassroots election survey.
Unlike opinion pollsters who give a general figure, correspondents S.S. Karnadsha and R. Kannan presented a unique seat-by-seat prediction for each of the 224 constituencies in the State, based on personal visits, Election Commission data, and the 2004 results.
They took the delimitation of constituencies into account, assessed the winnability of candidates by absorbing local factors, and spoke to strategists and other players on the ground. They presented their findings a day before each of the three rounds of polling here, here, and here.
churumuri‘s assessment was Congress 92, BJP 84, JDS 41.
In other words, we underestimated the BJP by almost a third (26 seats), and overestimated the Congress and JDS by 12 and 13 seats respectively, but at least we put a face to the figures.
Now that polling in Karnataka for the 28 Lok Sabha seats is over, S.S. Karnadsha has put his post-poll cap on. These are his predictions. Obviously, his assessment that the ruling BJP will secure a maximum of 17 seats contradicts Mathihalli Madan Mohan‘s who predicted 18 (or more) for the BJP, but that’s the beauty of the democratic exercise: either possibility is in the realm.
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S.S. KARNADSHA writes: Picking up lessons from the narrow loss of the May 2008 assembly polls, the Congress and the JDS have played an intelligent electoral game this time around to checkmate the BJP in the State.
The two parties have not entered into an open electoral alliance, but have tacitly supported each other in a number of constituencies after assessing their mutual strengths.
For instance, in Bangalore South it is reliably learnt that the JDS worked to transfer votes in favour of the Congress in the last two days. Similarly, in Davangere, Bellary, Dharwad, Shimoga, Bidar, Chikkodi, Chikaballapur and Bangalore North, the JD(S) has helped the Congress.
This is in return for support for JDS candidates in constituencies like Bangalore Rural, Koppal, Tumkur, Chitradurga and the Bidar assembly seat. This tacit understanding between the two parties has made the reading of the poll pitch extremely difficult in the State.
The only seat where the Congress and JDS faced off against each other directly is Mandya where JDS’s N. Cheluvarayaswamy took on the Congress’s Ambarish. How much of this covert strategy will check the bull run of the BJP will be known in a week’s time.
One thing is certain: the margin of victory in every single seat in the State will be small compared to last time.
Congress’s vote share may still be the highest like last time (36.82 per cent), but will it be able convert that into seats is the big question. As our variable numbers and the range of seats indicate, the battle is really close and not one-sided as the BJP is making it out to be.
In several constituencies there is an undercurrent again the BJP.
You shouldn’t therfore be surprised if the Congress and the BJP level their tally at 12 each or of if the Congress even pips the saffron party by a seat or two. There may be a slightly different spread of numbers for the two national parties if the JDS picks up nearly six seats.
A source in the Gowda family is not willing to concede anything less than 7 seats for the party. Let us warn you they are not day-dreaming.
So now, with our numbers and analysis below, where only broad contours have been suggested. We invite you to play your own poll game based on your intuition and information. To help you play your game a little more accurately we have listed out constituencies that are a sure shot for each party and the ones that may swing in their favour.
There is also a clear picture below of the straight fights. Good luck then, conjure up your own number and get back to us before May 16.
No prizes for guessing!
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Total number of seats: 28
Seats where decision is certain: 16
Seats that may swing either way: 12
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BJP (2004 tally: 18)
Least number BJP can win: 6
Most number BJP can win: 17
Congress (2004 tally: 8)
Least number Congress can win: 7
Most number Congress can win: 15
JDS (2004 tally: 2)
Least number JDS can win: 3
Most number JDS can win: 8
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Seats BJP is sure to win: Belgaum, Haveri, Bellary, Bangalore North, Chikmagalur and Kolar.
Seats that could swing in the favour of BJP: Bangalore South, Mangalore, Uttara Kannada, Bagalkot, Dharwad, Bangalore Central, Shimoga, Chamarajanagar, Chitradurga, Mysore, and Koppal.
Seats Congress is sure to win: Bidar, Gulbarga, Raichur, Chikkodi, Bijapur, Davangere and Chikballapur.
Seats that could swing in the favour of Congress: Uttara Kannada, Bagalkot, Bangalore South, Mangalore, Dharwad, Shimoga, Chamarajanagar and Mandya.
Seats JDS is sure to win: Hassan, Bangalore Rural and Tumkur.
Seats that may swing in the favour of JDS: Mysore, Bangalore Central, Mandya, Chitradurga and Koppal.
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Seats where the fight is between BJP and Congress: Bangalore South, Mangalore, Dharwad, Chamarajanagar, Shimoga, Bagalkot and Uttara Kannada.
Seats where the fight is between BJP and JDS: Bangalore Central, Koppal, Chitradurga and Mysore.
Seats where the fight is between JDS and Congress: Mandya.
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Also read: Why BJP will win 18 (or more) seats in Karnataka
Results of Karnataka in 2004 general elections
Tags: 2009 Elections, BJP, Churumuri, Congress, General Elections 2009, Janata Dal Secular, JDS, Mathihalli Madan Mohan, Sans Serif
8 May 2009 at 6:36 pm
This is like prediction of road side astrologer who predicts the outcome of a pregnancy as “Aadarae gandu magu, illadiddali hennu magu.” Poor chap does not know the probability of a stillborn or transvestite.
Such porous predictions help nobody and hence better to keep quite till 16th May.
8 May 2009 at 8:34 pm
So Somayaji, Jain and various Swamijis are replaced by M3, K & R(not Let us C! :P ).
9 May 2009 at 11:15 pm
Last time, Karnadsha worked in tandem with Kannan and came up a third short for BJP. By that linear equation, BJP should get at least a third more than he estimates this time. Which means, the lowest BJP will get is 8, and the highest is 22-23. But it took two of them to underestimate by 33 percent. Since only one them is at work this time, the lowest BJP will get is 7 and the highest is 20.
10 May 2009 at 2:16 am
Without going into the merits of this or other recent predictions, it is seen that most forecasters are specifying “conditional ranges” for various parties with the disclaimers and the number of asterisks getting bigger and bigger. It is also interesting to see that though polls and surveys are getting more scientific, fewer surveys are taking into account the views of the “real players on the ground” – the people.
10 May 2009 at 6:51 am
Among all the thugs running for Parliament, who really deserved our vote? The chief factor that will determine the outcome of the elections will be illiteracy, which can be translated as jaathi if one wishes.
We have been derided by the West as a “functioning anarchy.” Are we now slouching towards just plain “anarchy?”
Intellectual bankruptcy will certainly make us a failed state, right next to Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, and, of course, Sri Lanka.
10 May 2009 at 7:58 am
The election prediction appears to have caught everybodys imagination and the game on predictions is on and provides interesting insight into our thinking understanding of the situation.
The predictions which are based on provable and incontrovertible facts have better chance of hitting the bulls eye than those based on assumptions and presumptions.
The tally put out for BJP does not contradict but corroborates in a way whatever MMM has said.
10 May 2009 at 7:01 pm
I have copy pasted my old post.My comments or views are very much similar to S.S. Karnadsha and R. Kannan. I would like them to see my predictions and give some comments.I have also tried analysing the whole state situation from past several months and have came to the conclusion. (namma predictions bagge yenadhu comment koDi sir.
I am putting my predictions based on various analysis of seat by seat basis
My analysis is
Sure shot seats
BJP 6
Udupi,bijapur,bagalkot,dharwad,bangalore north, bellary
CONG 8
Davangere,mangalore,chikkodi,gulbarga,bidar,raichur,chikaballapur,chamarajnagara)
JDS 5
bangalore rural, bangalore central,tumkur,mandya,hassan
SO Currently
BJP 7
CONG 8
JDS 5
seem to be pretty much fixed
The seats which is pretty tough are
Bangalore south (between cong and BJP)
Koppal (between Cong and JDS)
Mysore (triangular fight)
Chitradurga(a quadrilateral fight)
Shivamogga( a fight betwen cong and BJP)
Kolar(a fight between cong and BJP)
uttara kannada(a fight between cong and BJP)
belgavi (a triangular fight)
So my total predictions are
BJP 7-14
Cong 8-16
JDS 5-8
Bigger ranges can be attributed to the 7 seats which are highly unpredictable
10 May 2009 at 9:08 pm
good attempt on election analysis.
very close to ground reality in karnataka. JD S is extremely cofident of getting 6-8 seats. BELAGAAVI jd s candidate A B PATIL has put up an exellent show and may end winning . kumaraswamy has got exellent support from kannadigas through out the district.
JD S has run the most disciplined, legal election campaign in karnataka , which clearly differs from corrupt methods of BJP.
11 May 2009 at 10:29 am
dr ramesh: Mark your words!!!! during assembly elections you made similiar comments forgetting the reality and you went into hiding for almost an year! You have no moral right to comment on BJP! this election will be Dirty Gowda’s waterloo..
11 May 2009 at 2:45 pm
BJP bagge comments maDokke moral rights beka? adhu yelli sigutte?
11 May 2009 at 5:59 pm
If table top experts are so scared as to float scores in such a wide range as “Least 7, Most 16″, may I enlarge the field and bravely suggest that the least the three main parties are likely to get is 0 and the most is 28?