MATHIHALLI MADAN MOHAN writes from Hubli: Is the phenomenal electoral success of the BJP in Karnataka the cause for L.K. Advani‘s dream of becoming the country’s Prime Minister to be shattered?
There’s nothing rational about it, but political tongues are wagging the superstitious way: that any party which fares well in Karnataka has no chance of occupying the gaddi in New Delhi.
In 1999 while Congress was voted to power in Karnataka, the party could not hold on to the reins in New Delhi, with a BJP government led by Atal Behari Vajpayee being installed.
It happened in 2004 when the Congress-led UPA was voted to power at the Centre, but met its Waterloo in the State. This led to the era of coalitions, which came to end within 40 months forcing the midterm poll to the assembly.
It has happened for the third time now.
The BJP government had been in power in Karnataka for over a year. Just to prove that its victory in the 2008 assembly elections was no flash in the pan, the party pulled out all stops to ensure that it won 19 out of the 28 Lok Sabha seats.
The expectation of the B.S. Yediyurappa government was that a solid support extended by Karnataka for the formation of a BJP-led government in Delhi, would give an additional leverage to the party as well as the chief minister. But the party’s dismal failure to come anywhere near the throne, has overshadowed the euphoria of success in Karnataka.
Maybe, if the BJP had put in a flop show in Karnataka, the chances of Advani becoming Prime Minister would have brightened! But that would have certainly made the position of Yediyurappa more vulnerable.
The good show put up by the BJP has sent the party to cloud nine. But, sadly, it cannot enjoy it because of the poor show across the country.
Tags: 2009 Elections, Atal Behari Vajpayee, B.S. Yediyurappa, BJP, Churumuri, Congress, General Elections 2009, L.K. Advani, Mathihalli Madan Mohan, NDA, Sans Serif
20 May 2009 at 12:52 am
Even in 1977 after emergency was lifted, it was only in karnataka that Congress fared better but Janata came to power at the centre !
20 May 2009 at 1:26 am
I can’t believe this trash got some space in Churumuri
20 May 2009 at 1:55 am
All the Chaddis are shocked beyond disbelief…The Chaddi blogs are crying EVM fraud… funny guys.
20 May 2009 at 2:02 am
First of all congratulations are due to MMM on his analysis and bold prediction about the BJP’s performance in K’taka.
It is true that Karnataka has opted for parties that did not eventually win power in several Lok Sabha elections. May be this is the voter’s way of keeping various parties in check so they can deliver.
20 May 2009 at 6:47 am
A good observation. NDTV and all news channels are still complimenting the congress on their victory in states they have won and condemn the BJP. But they do not talk about the states where the BJP has won hands down. What a paradox!
20 May 2009 at 9:31 am
Example for superstitious learning(Skinnerian learning). Go on guys!
20 May 2009 at 10:13 am
Either the people of Karnataka are not mature enough or they want that their state should go with the power. A real government at the centre should never differentiate between a pro- or otherwise state. For the development , the centre should look after al states equally. But that is not the case with India. It is a bitter truth. And politicians , by and large , are too selfish.
20 May 2009 at 10:18 am
First, Congrats MMM for getting it spot on about Karnakata..
The above theory is akin to Chamarajanagar jinx that is associated with CMs.. This time there are 6 diggajas from state as MPs – if you include SMK as well. Hope 2-3 of them will become ministers and do their bit to the state.
20 May 2009 at 10:46 am
But I wonder what does BJP’s popularity in Karnataka indicate? Their indirect support of the violence against women in the Mangalore incident did not affect their popularity?
20 May 2009 at 11:53 am
Faldo,
Even while electing Congress types and with the Central Govt. being Congress led, Karnataka got sweet FA since elections were first held; May be that is one reason Kannadigas don’t bother too much about the Central government. Whereas Kongas are always after Railways and other cashcow departments? Recently Dirty and his sons have started DMK-type politics in Karnataka. Bit IMHO Dirty’s efforts are more like PMK Ramadoss type operation with ‘Tillers’ doubling up as Vanniyars with PMK…
20 May 2009 at 3:32 pm
At the end of the day, what matters is numbers.
Yediyurappa deliverd the MAXIMUM MPs to BJP. Modi came a poor third, after Shivraj in MP.
Yediyurappa should be projected as the next PM candidate of BJP.
Why not?
20 May 2009 at 4:22 pm
I am with you Simple. Yeddiyurappa should be considered for the top job in the next LS elections. Look at the mandate he has got despite the drubbing BJP got at the centre.
Even the vote share of BJP has increased in Karnataka. Yeddiyurappa should be seriously considered for the top job.
20 May 2009 at 5:27 pm
@ Dharma:
India Today magazine has a 24 pages story on poll outcome..on which 4 pages dedicated to YSR in AP and 3 for Naveen Patnaik. Guess how much space did Yeddyyurappa get ? Not one line !!
yes, not a single line or mention about BJP win in Karnataka ! I am amazed that the magazine ingored BSY who sent the highest continegent of MPs for BJP in this Lok Sabha
20 May 2009 at 6:51 pm
the sum total of my concerns is this, god forbid the rains fail. what happens to ka?
the question is not whether bjp won or not and nor is it about the differential between state’s leaning vs the center. the question is whether the grand congress coterie believes there is enough congress potential left for it in the state, for it to take on the dmk and lean in favour of our just demands when distress sets in? only a simple@churumuri can answer it for us. coz churumuri itself wont.
with no bargaining power, and with all our nice and enlightened people in their harmonious slumber, i see no hope. it wil be left to ladies and school kids of mysore to do all the middle ground, gandhian, bavuta waving at kr circle, which ofcourse the enlightened media and everybody else will conveniently ignore. it will finally take the ‘ugly’ and the ‘unpalatable’ chaluvaligaaras to get some attention.
will URA, GK and sundry others enlightened progressive nobels of the state,including churumuri, bat for KA and their own and their people’s self interest, or will they be numbed by their own theories and subscribe whole sale to the off the hip shooting by the ‘eminent’ editor’s nonsense about an ‘eminently implementable’ solution and leave all the battling to the “obscurantists” & the “parochials” and then, when all has been done and accomplished, in hindsight, take to grand moralizing- post facto?
the story is always the same. nobody here takes on n.ram’s ‘eminently implementable’ and then when people do, in the way they no best, there is lot of chest beating, mayy parchkoLing and theory peddling. iLeeri saar, neeral iLiDu aaLa tiLkonDu maathaaDi.
20 May 2009 at 7:56 pm
TS,
Hotha nai woh!
Namdu unique zabanalli maathaddhrey swalpa log object gey madtharey–namduki bhaya illa. As Shakespeare once said, “every Cripple has his own way of dancing’ antha namdu argot idhe alla adhrella naavu express-ge maadtheevi!
20 May 2009 at 8:17 pm
MysoreBoy!
I think you made a valid point. Yeddi should be projected as PM or given an important portfolio if and when BJP come to power.
20 May 2009 at 8:24 pm
rofl!!
yaen saar nimduge eethara bolta hai! bhaaLa bejaardu hota hai. solpa hope-du koDi saar.
hottedu novv ge hogbeku bolya to, sometimes you have to take bitter bitter nungne ka guLige. ayyo, logan samajh the nahi kya to bhi karne ka? bolk choDo aap.
20 May 2009 at 9:08 pm
DB,
Interesting observation about DDG. They would do well to remember PMK’s fate in this election.
21 May 2009 at 6:16 am
TS,
Hope-ge eyethey, hope-ge eyethey..aadrey bahut mushkil hain…time-ge chennagilla…alli Chandra nodbeku, illa Surya nodbeku! Swalpa OddVani-ge retire-ge maadbitti, Jaitley jaisa naujawan-ge thokkondi banbittrey, yella hope-du mundhe mundhe barthaare!. Namdu hakim-saab ee pilaan gulige kotti “Jaav maamu, panch saal ke baad aajaav” antha bolya so! Woh time mein namdu party oligey sab khachada log yella saaf maad bitti, yellargu seedha jaaney ka kaam kot bitti namdu forward-ge bartheevi..Nahi tho…”Humouristan katharey mein hain”…
21 May 2009 at 1:59 pm
Churumuri,
Instead of being superstitious, think this way for once….
We the electorate in Karnataka are like the proverbial ‘Tube Light’. If we switch it on today it lights up only at the next assembly elections. So the switch is now on. So State Congress Netas can take a holiday, save their breathand wait till the next Assembly elections, as they are sure to capture the state in next Assembly elections, due to the tube light effect.