POLL: Does Yediyurappa’s KJP stand a chance?

The disgraceful nataka in BJP-ruled Karnataka has taken yet another farcical turn with the former chief minister B.S. Yediyurappa formally launching his own regional party, the Karnataka Janata Party, from the central town of Haveri on Sunday. With just a few months to go before the term of the current assembly ends, the “gateway to the south” is clearly now in election mode.

Yediyurappa’s is not the first regional party in the State: from D. Devaraj Urs to Ramakrishna Hegde to S. Bangarappa, the pot of regionalism has been periodically simmering, usually in vain. But there are three key differences between then and now.

One, while those worthies at least had the semblance of the greater common good—social justice, land reforms, secularism, etc—Yediyurappa and his ilk have had no bigger aim or objective than cloaking their own self-interest in reginoal colours . Witness the constant refrain of “sthaana-maana” in the last couple of years.

Two, while M/s Urs, Hegde and Bangarappa represented small communities, Yediyurappa represents the large Lingayat community, which is neck and neck with the Vokkaligas in numerical strength. So, to that extent, Yediyurappa has given his community the political equivalent of H.D. Deve Gowda‘s Janata Dal (Secular).

And three, and perhaps most importantly, Yediyurappa’s party comes at a time when the two national parties, the Congress and BJP, are in decline across the nation, as evidenced by diminishing vote share and seat share, odd exceptions notwithstanding.

Questions: Will Yediyurappa’s attempt pay off? Is Karnataka ready for a regional party? Will he eat into BJP votes or Congress votes? Can he get the majority to form a government? If not, will he tie up with the BJP or the Congress? Or, will his political outfit be an insiginficant player, which will be his shield against the cases against him and his sons?

Also read: Is it all over for B.S. Yediyurappa?

How much longer will BSY stay in BJP?

CHURUMURI POLL: Will BJP dump BSY?

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37 Responses to “POLL: Does Yediyurappa’s KJP stand a chance?”

  1. Deepak Says:

    No regional leader has succeeded in Karnataka and no one who left BJP has ever prospered. That’s Yeddy’s fate!! Clearly he is hoping to get 20-30 seats and tie up with Congress to form a Govt, and thus please Mrs.Italy and get his CBI cases quashed.

    But Yeddy and children themselves will lose their seats unless they are very nifty in their strategy. There is an anti-BJP sentiment, which if the BJP strategises can be converted to anti-Yeddy. All BJP has to do is appoint a khadak Lok Ayukta and Yeddy will be behind bars and thats the end of KJP!! But knowing BJP, they will mess up things and allow Yeddy to flourish atleast till election time!!

  2. Srinivasamurthy Says:

    One Yeddy is not a hypocrite…. unlike the other three worthies who floated regional parties. People are not fools and will appreciate Yeddy for his candour. Ultimately elections are decided by political and muscle power both of which are purchasable and Yeddy has the resources.

  3. Nastika Says:

    KJP will eat into JDS & to an extent BJP vote share. HDx (HDD, HDK & HDR) must be worried lot.

    ~*~
    BSY: ‘I will enter Suvarna Soudha as CM.’
    HDK: ‘If I become CM, I will get Netravathi in 48 hours’

    Note these folks don’t talk about their party getting majority, but they becoming CM (by hook or by crook).
    So will the 2nd runk leaders in their parties stick around?

    ~*~

  4. harkol Says:

    Stand a chance of doing what?

    Win a few seats? – Yes
    Spoil BJP chances? – Yes

    Play Kingmaker? – Unlikely, as if BJP is in a position to form a govt. with 20 short, then it may decide to buyout MLAs, by making them join back BJP, rather than put up with Yeddy…

    Hegde, Gowda, Urs were far bigger leaders than Yeddy, but couldn’t cut it out side of national parties. Yeddy is one more addition.

  5. Abdulraheman Patrawala Says:

    He is the only leader with vast following of seating MLAs…

  6. Bhamy V Shenoy Says:

    The day Yeddyurappa lanuched his party and was attended by thousands of Kannadigas will go down in Karnataka’s history as a day of infamy. How true Justice Katju’s words that 90% Indians are idiots. I wonder how many of these who participated in the launching of the party can be considered as idiots using the definition of Katju?

    What a shame that a politician who is known to be corrupt and has been found to have been a party to several corrupt deals by the Lok Ayukta can dare to lodge a party that will attract so many supporters. It cannot be purely based on caste. It is a pity that media cannot see beyond the easy lens of caste. As suggested here Hegde and Bangarappa belonged to a caste which had even lesser representation and still succeeded in attracting many. There may be other reasons that those who are supporting him must have been party to his corrupt practices and beneficiaries of the largesse. Finding such facts requires research and how many of our reporters have time or patience or even more important capacity?

    Let us not blame the “success” of BSY just to caste.

    Should he succeed which is very doubtful, Karnataka is doomed for sure. Let us hope that we ‘mango people’ living in ‘banana republic’ are not such ‘idiots’ to support a party which was born on account of corruption and not to fight corruption.

  7. dr ramesh Says:

    Today yeddy is being seen as a symbol of instability. He’s had a series of flip-flops which has eroded his credibility even amongst his staunch followers. KJP, BJP being off shoots of bjp, at best can spoil BJP’s chances in elections. They will take away bjp votes without affecting Congress and JD S votebank.
    If bjp decides to project shettar as CM candidate in the coming elections, even lingayat votes will be split.
    Bjp will be the biggest loser, Congress status quo, jd s will improve its tally, extent of gain depends on candidate selection and election strategy.

  8. Deepak Says:

    I am predicting a JDS-BSR govt. with outside support from BJP – or even a 20-20 BJP-JDS-BSR govt. again!! Other probability is Cong-KJP-BSR, but it seems unlikely thanks to Congress parties total lack of strategy!! Your views on this please?

  9. Simple Says:

    Congress will get a thumping majority. BJP, KJP and JDS will all be between 20 to 50 seats. My prediction will come true. Keep laughing all of you until the result day. Then, I will laugh.

  10. harkol Says:

    Simple:

    For once I won’t laugh at your comment.

    What you say has some rationale – because in 2008 election, Congress did get a bit more % of votes than BJP, but still lost majority of seats. If I remember right congress had 35% vote share vs BJP which had 34% votes. Congress hadn’t lost too much of voteshare between 2004 to 2008. But Congress lost most seats as its votes were spread across the state, BJP won because it’s vote gain was sharply in north Karnataka (at the expense of JD(S)).

    But, If BJP looses even 3-4% vote share across the state due to anti-incumbency, and looses up to 10% vote share in northern Karnataka due to Yeddy factor. Then Congress can indeed win big (even a majority), if – A BIG IF – congress manages the same vote share of 35% as its opposition votes would split 3 ways.

    So, it seems likely that we’ll indeed have a Congress Govt. next!!

  11. Deepak Says:

    @Simple
    Like harkol i also won’t laugh at you, but will also agree with your logic! In such a situation, when the BJP govt. has failed and opposition vote has split, Congress SHOULD sweep or atleast end up single largest party.

    But problem is Congress is in pathetic state at ground level. JDS is gaining on them in many places, esp. in Siddaramiah’s own turf; KPCC President is a dud, Krishna is a spent force and Kharge’s area seems to be now taken over by BSR Cong/KJP. Thats why I say chance of BJP-JDS-BSR govt. is strong simply because there is no difference between Gujarat Cong and Karnataka Cong – both are totally unprepared and have no idea what to do!!

    But inspite of all this like I said in my comment above, there is a chance of Cong-KJP-BSR govt – but Congress sweeping can be ruled out – and for that your aam admi govt.’s LPG cuts and other such sh** will come back home to prevent them from sweeping.

  12. Sanjeeva Says:

    Simple – I tend to agree with you, though I doubt whether the Cong is in a position to get ‘thumping’ majority, but who is the Congress leader in Karnataka? Whom do you portray as CM? Unfortunate thing in Karnataka politics today is that there is no leader in any of the party who can command some kind of respect and instil confidence among voters! Result is more and more fragmentation and the state will suffer. There may be even chaos like situation.

  13. harkol Says:

    Deepak:

    I hate voting for regional parties as they are a recipe for caste based politics and high corruption. However bad the national parties are they are infinitely more preferable to regional formations.

    This is not to say we need to have strong local leaders. Like Narendra Modi or even Yeddy, local leaders are important to national parties. But, national parties should have no qualms in purging local leaders if they are found corrupt/criminal.

    I have traditionally voted for BJP in state elections starting in 80s, but gravitated to congress (thanks to SM Krishna in early 2000s & Manmohan Singh later) in past couple of elections. But I voted BJP in 2008 state elections, and Congress in 2009 general election and have come to regret both!!. But, Yeddy/Reddy gone, Congress’ mega scams – BJP is a more acceptable again. Infinitely more acceptable than the private family owned company called congress. I have resolved not to vote for congress candidate as long as Gandhi family is at the helm. :(

    So, I am hoping a strong national alternative emerges in AAP/Loksatta. If it does, my vote will go with AAP or Loksatta. If not BJP (unless their candidate is terrible).

    Even while I may vote for BJP, I am sure they’ll loose this time around in Karnataka. It will likely be a congress or congress supported setup in Karnataka. And BJP has themselves to blame for it. They should’ve nipped reddy/yeddy/Renukacharya types early, and built a base around more honest leaders. Now it may be too late for 2013.

  14. shiv Says:

    IMHO our country is still in the hands of feudal powers who are from time to time usurped by local goondas who then become netas.The middle class can cry hoarse till kingdom come because the rich is too busy in grabbing as much as they can or too comfortable to notice all the shit flying around or too dismissive to really have any concern for the people where as the uneducated poor, their day to day struggle is so great they hardly bother who rules them.Democracy will work only if the population has more than 75% middle class and it will be a disaster when more than 60% is poor and illiterate.The farce that is democracy in India will continue till the poor get educated and have a roof over their head.Eadi’s are small change compared to the major loot the big ones are doing in this country.The last 2 years all the scams published in our media has convinced me that powerful ruling elites comprising of politicians/industrialist and the bureaucracy has become too greedy hardly bothering what mango people think.

  15. harkol Says:

    Shiv:

    We the middle class are misfits in this society. Folks who are willing to break law in big scale become rich (so no longer middle class) and poor don’t care about fate of country as long as they can get some small freebies. Lofty principles and ideals aren’t for them.

    We middle class folks are fools. Katju has got it wrong – the Rich in India are intelligent – they have figured there is no point in trying to help the poor, it is best to exploit them.

    Poor aren’t fools either. They knowingly vote in the corrupt, because they think they are the ones who can do something for them.

    It is the middle class (Katju being part of it) who are fools. Who think what they think matters, or trying hard to follow law & pay taxes.

  16. Deepak Says:

    @harkol – I agree with your views. But AAP I feel is not going to make any kind of impact. They may create waves in urban areas, but are unlikely to affect poll results. But what will be interesting esp. in urban areas is the proposed PAC which some activists like Ramesh Ramanath, Justice Hegde and others have planned – they have decided to support and fund good and clean candidates, irrespective of party!! Lets see how this works – this could have a greater impact than actually contesting elections.

    And BJP should have sacked Renukacharya and the likes and suspended Halappa. But they allowed Yeddy to run like a horse without reins and now they are in a soup. It seems unlikely that the BJP will even be single largest party. Their only hope would be that BJP+JDS+BSR > Cong+KJP!!

    They should treat 2013 as gone case and instead plan for 2014!!

  17. Deepak Says:

    PS : Suvarna News poll has predicted an absolute majority for Congress with 115 news! Time for Simple to party :)

  18. shiv Says:

    Harkol …

    “We the middle class are misfits in this society.” – No we are not.We remain middle class because we have not pursued greed,we have our sense of fair play , hence curb negative instincts even though goodies are dangled in front of us.What we lack though is guts and the ability not to get fooled.We are easily fooled by divisive politicians on the basis of religon, language, state even in issues of cauvery river water sharing.Our petty minds don’t see the real picture.Once we correct this mentality, we will get this nation moving forward.Mind you when you look at progressive nations like France or Germany, it is the middle class which drives the nation.Rich have the power but they cannot manipulate on issues which affect common people as they easily do in India.Solution is more education to the poor and a security of a roof over their shoulders, bring them to middle class fold.once that happen, there will be parity of power groups.

  19. harkol Says:

    Shiv: Admire your idealism, but you just described why we, the middle class, are misfits!!

    Middle class will be a force in this country (like they are in USA/Germany/France etc.) only when we cross about 40-50% of populace. Currently we are only about 15-20%. And getting to 50% will take couple of decades or more.

    US progressive era didn’t begin until US crossed the Rubicon of middle class majority. Till then USA was corrupt and was run by robber barons and party bosses too!!

    Till we the middle class, with our middle class morality/uprightness/ideals etc. are ‘misfits’.

    ***

    Sanjeeva: Don’t you know?

    Congress appoints Chief Ministers. The Prima Donna of congress will decide a CM through a ‘donnacratic’ process.

    It could be the ‘most loyal’ person, perhaps a donkey that’s been around since the time of Indira Gandhi. It certainly won’t be Siddhu.

    And whoever that person is, he won’t complete 5 years. Note – We haven’t had a CM that completed 5 years for almost 30+ years now!!

  20. Nastika Says:

    @harkol,
    Who is rich, who is poor & who is middle class in your comment? If it just notional or is it based on a criteria?

    ~*~

  21. dr ramesh Says:

    In the era of paid news, paid surveys, the survey in suvarna -kannada prabha giving Congress absolute majority should be taken with a pinch of salt.
    HDK statement regarding these prepoll surveys is very correct, when he says that the channel’s prepoll surveys regarding by elections in gulbarga, madhugiri etc had predicted jd s to be in third place, but jd s won those seats.
    Even a marginal improvement would result in a gain of atleast 25-30 seats over last time, resulting in a tally close to 60.
    I remember, 2004 most of the media, had given jd s 10-20 seats, SMK – majority, but results were jd s 58 seats, Congress around 60.

  22. Faldo Says:

    @Harkol – Good points but I would only partially agree with you. It is true that the middle class would be a force to reckon with in electoral politics only after it comprises a higher proportion of the population. I do agree that with time this could happen in India.

    However, that is not to say that they cannot participate in and control the democratic process. In many democracies, members of the middle class engage public officials or the official machinery and try to demand services. Many among the middle class do not necessarily bother to vote even in those countries but do not hesitate to petition or write to their elected representatives concerning even the most minor issues.
    In India of course the official machinery may not be tuned to the needs of the people and elected officials are not always responsive, but might swing into action if the the middle class can engage itself a little more vigorously and starts believing in the system rather than criticizing and just demanding change.

  23. bhat Says:

    @harkol,
    And whoever that person is, he won’t complete 5 years. Note – We haven’t had a CM that completed 5 years for almost 30+ years now!!

    Wrong…. as far as I remember SM Krishna completed his term though in next election he had to bite the dust.

  24. harkol Says:

    Bhat: Wrong. SM Krishna didn’t complete 5 years. He called for elections 6 months in advance. That brought in list less Dharam Singh-Kumaraswamy tamasha. But. SMK was the longest serving CM in a long long while.

    :)

    And I hope Congress doesn’t make SMK the CM again. He was excellent 10-12yrs back., but He was a disaster as foreign minister – age has caught up with him.

    Faldo: ‘Members of middleclass’ do most of all you have said. But, I am talking of majority of the class – being misfit. Struggle is essential to change things so we aren’t misfits anymore.

  25. vasant shetty Says:

    ಯಡಿಯೂರಪ್ಪನವರಿರಲಿ, ಶ್ರೀರಾಮುಲು ಇರಲಿ ಇನ್ನೊಂದು ಅಸ್ತಿತ್ವದಲ್ಲಿರುವ ಪಕ್ಷಕ್ಕೆ ಸೇರುವ ಬದಲು ಪ್ರಾದೇಶಿಕ ಪಕ್ಷ ಕಟ್ಟುತ್ತೇನೆ ಅನ್ನುವಲ್ಲಿ ಇಲ್ಲವೇ ತಮ್ಮನ್ನು ತಾವು ಪ್ರಾದೇಶಿಕ ಪಕ್ಷ ಎಂದು ಕರೆದುಕೊಳ್ಳುತ್ತಿರುವ ಜಾತ್ಯಾತೀತ ಜನತಾದಳದ ಇತ್ತೀಚಿನ ನಿಲುವಿನಲ್ಲಿರುವ ಆತ್ಮವಿಶ್ವಾಸವನ್ನು ಕರ್ನಾಟಕದಲ್ಲಿ ಬಲಗೊಳ್ಳುತ್ತಿರುವ “ಪ್ರಾದೇಶಿಕ ಪಕ್ಷ ಬೇಕು” ಅನ್ನುವ ಚಿಂತನೆಯ ಹಿನ್ನೆಲೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ನೋಡಿದಾಗಲೇ ಮೂರನೆಯ ಹಂತದ ಬದಲಾವಣೆ ಹೇಗೆ ರೂಪುಗೊಳ್ಳುತ್ತಿದೆ ಅನ್ನುವುದನ್ನು ಅರ್ಥ ಮಾಡಿಕೊಳ್ಳಬಹುದು.

    http://vasantabanda.blogspot.in/2012/11/ee-baari-karnatakadalli-praadeshika.html

  26. Dr. Mahadevaswamy Says:

    BJP Will have to face dificulties because this party will not mass leader like Yedyurappa in forth comming election KJP will damage BJP

  27. Doddi Buddi Says:

    I feel Yeddy with his KJP will steal votes from JDS and BJP; Yeddi has to be careful else his party will become LJP (Lingayat Janagala Party) the same way JDS has become ‘Jathi Dala Sangha’ or TMSUP (Tandhe Makkalu Soseyandhiru & Upapathni party’

    My prediction: BJP 70; Congress: 40: KJP 60; JDS: 30 Others (ithyadi parties) : 15

  28. Deepak Says:

    @Doddi Buddi – Congress 40!!! Simple will lead a dharna to your house in protest :)
    But seriously, Congress has every chance of being single largest party if they play their cards right. I don’t think KJP can get so many seats, in fact Yeddy will himself be in trouble in Shikaripur!! BJP will let loose all their weapons incuding Modi at him to ensure his defeat.
    My prediction:
    Congress : 70-80
    BJP : 55-65
    JDS : 45-55
    KJP : 10-15
    BSR : 5-10
    Rest to others

  29. harkol Says:

    Doddi Buddi: KJP 70?? Are you part of Yeddy clan by any chance?

    :)

  30. Doddi Buddi Says:

    Deepak & Harkol,

    Nodtha iri. My predictions will come true! TMSUP will be decimated. Dr. Ramesappa brace yourself for this bad news.

  31. Doddi Buddi Says:

    Yeddi’s KJP Anthm:

    Shiva antha hogutthide rajakiyadalli
    Hatthu case-u itthu courti-nalli
    Sonia nee kande side-e-nalli
    Yeddi Yeddi Yeddi Yeddi Yeddi

    Ananthana kata thadeyakagalla
    Gajkari dhuddu vapas kodalla
    Advani support madakilla
    Yeddi Yeddi Yeddi Yeddi Yeddi

    Shoba hathra current itthu
    Nanna hathra currency idhe
    Nadiri KJP kattona
    Yeddi Yeddi Yeddi Yeddi Yeddi

    Janagaligu modhley budhee-illa
    Hindu Saabru ondeh yella
    Naanu geledhe hodhru parwagilla
    Sonia bitrey barey devathe-illa

  32. Anitha Says:

    Yeddy, this is a warning to you. Keshubhai flopped miserably. He was banking on the patel vote factor. He flopped. You are banking on Lingayat votes. They too are not stupid. They will vote for the party, not the person.

  33. Deepak Says:

    @Anitha – On Times Now Siddharth Nath Singh of BJP issued a clear warning to Yeddy (without naming him) that all those left BJP have been destroyed and that he (Yeddy) should not self-destruct :)

  34. harkol Says:

    Doddi Buddi:

    Someone already did a parody – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NkC6g5a7bU

    :)

  35. Adithya Says:

    There are people with the surname PATEL in Karnataka too, which comes from their families’ ranking in yore India or Karnataka ex. JH Patel, Brijesh Patel. And here in Karnataka by and large they are Lingayats. If you’re still reading this I apologize with you for this pietistic irrelevant depiction but that is how irrelevant Guj polls to Karnataka
    A couple of rhetorical questions
    In 2oo8 did people vote for BJP or Yeddy?
    Is Yeddy the corrupt CM Karnataka has ever seen or do you agree that RTI act wasn’t in existence in the 80s 90s & in early 2K?
    If Yeddy will be the keshubai who will be the Modi of KA?
    What is it that Yeddy has other than his corruptness and temperament which Shettar Shamanoor or other Lingayat leaders doesn’t seem to have?

    If you still find that Guj polls are relevant to KA in the coming 2013 I have a bit
    Karnataka’s roads were never stained with human blood to later turn it to saffron.
    And those highways weren’t tarred and named DEVELOPMENT to cover the decade old blood stains.
    Most significant bit
    100s of women were never raped in 2002 to be branded Zinda Laash.

  36. harkol Says:

    Adhitya: Brijesh Patel family is Gujarati. And they are very smart businessmen.

    But, there is a ‘patela’ community in Karnataka too. It used to be a title rather than family name – but became family name (patel) over time.

  37. AdithyaHK Says:

    harkol Brijesh Patel family is Gujarati- show me the proof. I never said that he is a lingayat.
    Patela was a ranking or a title in yesteryear society and it was always patela’s son who used to be the heir to this title in that sense I said it was a family ranking, and Patela was used to be a suffix before a name like Patel Revappa Patel Shanthappa and it became a surname after British Raj just like the word Gowda which was used to address a landlord and is still being used to address lingayat and other non vokkaliga land owners.

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