POLL: Has Modi’s march to Delhi been checked?

To nobody’s surprise, Narendra Damodardas Modi has secured a remarkable third, consecutive victory for the BJP in Gujarat. But to the shock of his fanatical drumbeaters and hype masters (and internet trolls), he has ended up with two fewer seats than what he had got five years ago: 115 in 2012 versus 117 in 2007.

The reduced margin does little to take away from the significance of the mandate, but it does throw a nice question mark over the expensive and relentless public relations campaign that had been mounted (through TV channels, magazine covers, newspaper ads) to erase the memories of 2002 and to create the self-fulfilling prophecy of the development giant towering over meek, inactive creatures populating the landscape.

The size of the victory also throws a small spanner in his grand design to swiftly move to Delhi and assume charge of his beleaguered party that is no better shape than the Congress, if not worse.

The fact that he has ended up with fewer seats for all that had been invested into his giant leap by corporates, business and media houses, means that many in the BJP and RSS (and not necessarily in that order), and the NDA, will now be emboldened to question what had been assumed for granted: that he would win a huge win on the scale of his persona, serve out a few months as chief minister, hand over charge to one of his chosen ones, and then move to Delhi to lead the BJP charge in the next general election against the hapless Rahul Gandhi.

He might yet do that, but there can be little denying that some of the air has slipped out of the blimp for the moment.

The BJP reverse in Himachal Pradesh (where he made a big song and dance over induction cookers) shows that he still doesn’t possess the pan-Indian appeal that his supporters thought he does. Sans an emotive issue (despite his efforts to spread a canard about Sir Creek or his derisive labelling of Ahmed Patel as Ahmed miyan), Modi is not the force he was expected to be.

Quite clearly, it would require a superhuman to retain the interest or sustain the hype for another five years. So, when exactly will Modi make his move to Delhi? Will it be smooth? Will he able to stomach a rebuff if his advances are spurned by his party colleagues and allies? And will the “former future prime minister” be given the opportunity to stand from Gandhinagar again?

Also read: How many seats will Narendra Modi get?–II

How many seats for Narendra Modi?—I

 

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29 Responses to “POLL: Has Modi’s march to Delhi been checked?”

  1. harkol Says:

    Measuring a win (that to third consecutive one) by doing some narrow measure of couple of seats less etc. is like peering in to the mouth of a gift horse.

    BJP would be the most foolish & self-destructive party, if it can’t see a groundswell among it’s voters. Either BJP should declare a ‘primary’ system to transparently elect a leader, or yield to a leader who seems to be most popular.

    Doing things like imposing ‘No Thin’ Gadha Kari, who without even having a proper state level base, became BJP president – is a sure way to ruin the party.

    If tier-2 downwards, an honest poll is held (including within RSS cadres), Modi will uncertainly be the next BJP hopeful for PM post.

    But, if that’ll happen is a big question.

  2. 4thaugust1932 Says:

    Forward Caste (Advani,Gadkari,Jaitley,Sushma,Keshubhai) will NEVER let Modi (BC) become Prime Minister.

  3. Deepak Says:

    This is as foolish and senseless a logic as Chidu said “They lost one seat, so we won, lets celebrate”!!! Height of idiocy!! If he had got another 2 seats, would you have asked this question?
    Modi is the most popular leader of India and strikes a chord with urban voters and centrists and right wingers. Only the liberals hate him and launch a hate propoganda against him, like you do day in and day out.

  4. ramanath maiya Says:

    a highly sick mind in churumuri at display. it wants to stay aloof when all the english media channels are prostrating in front of Modi. good keep it up….churumuri!!! it still wants to search for the stone in the curd.

  5. asha Says:

    The pitiable state of MSM is really hilarious. First they predicted Modi will be trounced, then they said he will barely scrape through but not win a majority but after the exit polls MSM had a paralysis of the tongue and did not utter a word. Now they are harping on 2 less seats than 2007 does not qualify him to be PM candidate. But Rahul who has no qualifications whatsoever is being evolved by MSM to be the future PM..yes same Rahul who is selling Potatoes at throw away prices :) I pity these poor MSM journos…it almost looks their days of milking the establishment is going to end sooner than they thought.

  6. Sanjeeva Says:

    The post is nothing but a blabbering by a burning heart and frustrated mind. It is like Hindi film mother in law shreiking after seeing a smart daughter in law “Hai, hai, main toh lut gayee, arre, isse roko, isse roko”!

  7. Suresh Panje Says:

    Reader Harkol has rightly analysed the scenario. Well, Modi must shed his arrogant attitude and also cultivate basic intellect and etiquette (although reportedly he wears only branded shirts, kurtas and jubbas) while speaking in public, i.e. orating. We can’t have a brutish PM like Chandrashekhar or a foolish and untutored premier like Deve Gowda, who were unaware of what is the topic on which they are supposed to speak.
    As for the contention of 4thaugust1932, I don’t understand how caste or creed could be the yardstick for a person to become the PM. Congress party is harping on Rahul Gandhi as the prospective Prime Minister whereas almost the entire country, nay the world agrees with Subramanian Swamy that the scion of Nehru-Gandhi clan is the most IDIOTIC FOOL.

  8. Yadhu Says:

    I have more interesting analogy on Modi winning Gujarat elections. The congress deliberately wanted Modi to win the elections, they (congress) know that they don’t stand a chance in Gujarat. They want Modi to win and project him as PM candidate, with this Congress plans to consolidate all minority votes and also make NDA allies like JD(U), would be supporters like BJD, TMC, TDP to think about their alliance with Modi headed NDA. At the same BJP is also shrewd enough to see this plan of congress. So they will project more agreeable candidate like Sushma Swaraj, at the same time make Modi the BJP president. All the plans will be revealed one after another in the first half of 2014.

  9. Sathish Says:

    It is not easy to retain the power for three continuous terms. Ridiculing this win as a loss of two seats is itself is ridiculous.

    @ 4thaugust193, I surely believe Modi has perfectly managed to raise above caste & region politics. He can’t be stopped anymore. Sushma herself had told publically that he is the best fit for PM. No doubts in that.

  10. null (@_nullabletype) Says:

    Maybe some kind souls can get together and pool in money to deliver a carton of Burnol to Churumuri and its associates in the MSM. They desperately need it :P

  11. NS Rao Says:

    I am surprised that none of the so-called secular people want to acknowledge the people’s mandate in Gujarat. And, it was disgusting to see Vinod Mehta – ex-editor of Outlook Magazine spew venom at Modi on TV show yesterday. Well, I am a vivid reader of Outlook every week and I am aware that KP is now the chief editor for that magazine. Whilst I like the pep content of the magazine, I do not like its often one-sided news which goes skewed towards Congress – more so, Vinod Mehta’s often myopic view.

    Anyway, coming back to the fact of matter, I think we need to consider the odds that were against Modi during this election.
    First – Most Democracies like to out-vote long running governments due to anti-incumbency. I do not think that is the case here after 15 years of BJP rule. There are Caste Issues involved, but putting that into equation as well, I would say, Modi has got it right again by getting close to 2/3 majority.
    Second – looking at the analysis, though he had not fielded any Muslim candidates, he has managed to increase the tally of those seats with >15% Muslim population – which again is an achievement debunking the theories of secular people / parties.
    Third – Opposition parties went around the State, breast beating on year 2002 riots. They went propagating that Modi was involved in the massacre, genocide etc etc (and they did not see their own back) – Modi had to overcome the hard fought advertisements against him in his own way.
    Fourth – Setting up of a Trojon Horse by Congress to dent Modi’s vote bank – Keshubhai Patel in the form of GPP. Nothing could be done, except that Congress got an egg on their face when Modi stumped them with a visit to meet his one time mentor and patriarch after the election results were out.

    Not that I am condoning any perceived mis-deeds of Modi in year 2002 , but it is time to move on – till date even moving the cases out of Gujarat as per Supreme Court’s direction has not helped his detractors to convict him. Okay, even if the cases go on, we should go with the thought that he is innocent until proven guilty, but fight for justice.

    Ending up with two seats less that with all the odds he had to encounter, I am sure he has done a wonderful job – infact, I would predict that if and ever he manages to face the next election in Gujarat, I will not be surprised if GPP merges with BJP and his vote share can only increase. If I remember right, this time BJP’s vote share was some where in the range of 47% – and it just shows his popularity. I would challenge Congress to come back to Power in the Center with the same majority – and I would doff my hat at them.

    What I liked most about this Election Campaign was the use of Technology. Each election he has campaigned, he has used different methods – Masks, Technology – out thinking the opposition. I think, he knows the pulse of his people now, and is more mature (probably all the makings of a good politician!!)

    I would keep my fingers crossed on his performance during the new tenure as well to see how he would perform, more so, if he makes a transition to Center.

    Finally relating this to Karnataka, I wish we had Modi with us for an allround development.

  12. Goldstar Says:

    Churumuri clutching at straws !!

    btw, why didn’t you publish Manish Tiwari’s equally pathetic response to Gujarat results: “Congress won all the seven constituencies where Rahul campaigned”. It will bring you closer to the powers that decide the Padma* awards soon.

    All the best !!

  13. Ganesh Says:

    Why does Narendra Modi want to go to Delhi? He has been winning elections in Gujarat for the past 10 years, he is supposed to be doing good work in Gujarat. He has almost 2/3 majority in Gujarat assembly. Gujarat with its 60 million population has a size of most countries in the world. Gujarat is supposed to be on a path of development and has still a long way to go on both economic and human indicators of development. Narendra Modi has hell lot of work in Gujarat. Narendra Modi is a Gujarati, he speaks Gujarati and connects with people. In this situation, why would someone like Narendra Modi with all things going his way in Gujarat shift to Delhi? What would Narendra Modi do in Delhi? He would end up spending all his time in fighting his baiters within BJP (the Rajya sabha types settled in Delhi for long), fighting the RSS conservatives who do not buy his worldview on economy and federalism, fighting the “liberal intelligentsia” who think Delhi is India and secularism is Narendra Modi bashing. After fighting all this out, even if BJP under Narendra Modi does well in 2014 LS elections, they can at most get 150 seats out of 545 seats . With these kind of numbers, does Narendra Modi think he can do any work in Delhi? The difference when you have a 2/3 majority and when you have 150 seats out of a total of 545 is stark. Hope someone tells Narendra Modi of the trap that he falling into by shifting to Delhi. After a few years, he will end up neither here nor there types. In the interest of Gujarat he should focus on his state and its people whom he truly represents.

  14. shiv Says:

    Modi’s victory in Gujarat is the right tonic this corrupt laden country need.It is extremely surprising that churumuri et al can accept a 4th standard au pair who perhaps might have worked as a consort as an Indian leader but mock at modi who has inspired millions of Indians that things can be turned around.Modi has pan India appeal which arm chair experts like churumuri might not agree.Modi’s forward march into Delhi is curtailed not by cong(i) but paid cong(i) men inside BJP.Their antics will get exposed and a leadership by Modi will galvanise the party.India need 2 strong national parties , BJP will be one for a long time, as for Cong(i), it is time they divest themselves of the dubious burden controlling them.Sooner they do that better for them,also better for the country.

  15. babuds Says:

    Mr. Manish Tiwary is known for trapping opponents by turning their words on head. On Times Now, when BJP’s Prasad said 6 crore Gujarathis chose Modi, he said all 6 crores did not vote as the polling percentage showed. By his statement Mr. Tiwary assumed the population of Gujarath are all voters, but the problem is at least 25 % of Gujarathis are not eligible to vote as they could be below 18 years of age. Mr. Tiwari is slipping. Could it due to Modi factor?

  16. Guru Says:

    After, Vajpayee, Modi appears decent and respectable, LK Advani came off as a two-tongued snake-head.

  17. Suresh Panje Says:

    To dear Mr. N S Rao’s comments and the BJP versus GPP, I have these observations based on the lead article in ONE INDIA web portal: Why Modi exchanged sweets with Keshubhai after bitter fight?

    This was my answer: Perhaps to make Keshubhai diabetic so that he and his GPP would not enter the electoral fray next time as such 4 seats go in BJP’s favour. – Suresh Panje, New Delhi.

    I think Modi is day dreaming. Outside Gujarat and the cow-belt, he doesn’t have any appeal. Moreover, there are larger power-hungry hawks in the likes of Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Rajnath Singh (a proclaimed KD), Ravi Shankar Prasad etc. waiting in the wings.

  18. shiv Says:

    “I think Modi is day dreaming. Outside Gujarat and the cow-belt, he doesn’t have any appeal. ” -
    Inspite of massive publicity by the media , the congress top leaders are unknown to public,chidu lost the election ( the high court in Chennai has admitted a case against him on this ) but like a magician, he pronounced himself elected,sonia or rahul cannot win election in any state nor can influence it.Modi has massive middle class support especially among hindus and this fact cannot be denied.He has cut across castes/regions,so far I cannot see any other leader other than Modi who can get votes in another state.The paid hands within BJP are afraid of him,the opposition is scared of him.He will get into centre stage whether convent educated Indians want him or not.Fortunately convent educated confused Indians alone don’t represent India.It is the rustic people who struggle through life who represent the nation who need a politician to represent them and Modi will be the right choice for them.

  19. Goldstar Says:

    What Modi should do is immediately bring out a policy paper on strong FEDERALISM. The policy should emphasise on
    - Smaller states
    - Stronger states with full financial autonomy
    - Decentralisation of major economic ministries, starting with Indian Railways
    - Center should be left only with Defence and Foreign Policy

    Go, United States of India !!!

    He will get good support from parties like AIADMK, BJD, TDP, SAD etc if he strongly advocates this.

  20. Psi Says:

    There are many ways of discrediting the person. Call them names. Talk about their lies. Show them to be unworthy. Tell how they are unintelligent, crazy or otherwise undesirable, inferior and not worth listening to, let alone believing.

    To discredit the topic or argument, indicate how it is patently absurd, proven to be false or that only fools would support it.

    Poisoning the well

  21. shiv Says:

    People in this forum must be aware that Cong through nehru family has ruled India since independence barring a short period in 70s and almost entire 90s.Indiragandhi to ensure power aligned with leftists which allowed lot of jolawalas to dictate economic policy.Wealth needs creation and it will create in an open economy not fretted by state control where rules are transparent and rule of law is imposed irrespective who is connected who is not. Indira followed nehru’s mixed economy model with large public sectors and curtailed private sectors.Indira when she nationalised banks , ensured capital is mostly available to the state and few selected crony capitalists.Corruption prospered in this emasculated economy breeding a large bunch of crooked industrialists/ crooked bureaucrats and benami controlled businesses of politicians.For corruption to dominate polity, state control is a must.Now in the new millenium, if this forum members still think cong(i) is utopia, their heads needs examination.It is time BJP at centre gets an extended run and the corrupt swindling crowd in ruling party placed in Tihar.Time is ripe for a new path and the common man should start getting his due not as a beggar but as an equal citizen. BJP party structure is democratic and probably only party in India which allows all and sundry to become a party leader at the highest level.All other parties whether national or regional are all actually a single family party.I have excluded CPI/CPM as their internal functioning is still a mystery.

  22. NS Rao Says:

    Nice one, Suresh Panje –
    An example of how do you sweetly outwit your opposition?
    Is this also something that was written in Kautilya Shastra by Chanakya? If that is the case, Modi has mastered that as well !!

  23. Deepak Says:

    If BJP gets rid of Gadkari and come together and make Modi their campaign leader (or whatever) for 2014, they will have a very good chance to get around 160 seats. Sena, MNS, Akali, Jayalalitha, Naveen Patnaik will have no problem supporting Modi. And Jagan and Mamta will make lot of noise but in the end will be more than happy to give outside support. So Modi can be PM even without Nitish’s support. But his biggest enemy is not Nitish or the Congress, its his own party!!!

  24. jayashree Says:

    Except BJP and people of India, no other political party or media wanted Modi to win. Still he won!

  25. kris Says:

    Brahmin domination of BJP/RSS does not allow Modi to be the PM and won’t be successful even if he becomes PM. He will soon face Yeddyurappa like situation. Very unfortunate.

  26. ASHOK M VAISHNAV Says:

    Irrespective of the wishes of NaMo and his own strategic plans fo rhis Delhi vision, it is surprising that most of the poll-analyses outside Gujarat do not take into acount the impact of election arithmatic in terms of vot share and vote-split among the three major contenders in 2012 poll.
    Interstingly, the Gujarat’s reputatio of a committed bi[polar polity has remined undented.
    Also, a micro-anaysis of vote-apttern among urban and rural voters for Gujarat as a whole and for each of the Four regions of Gujarat – Kutch and Saurashtra, North Gujarat, Central Gujaratand South Gujarat for the 2012 vs. 2207 asembly elections in comparision to 2009 Parliament elections can be more meaningful, too.

  27. Shileendhram Shrinivasu Says:

    What a perverted blog this is; shamelessly sycophant.

  28. Destination Infinity Says:

    I don’t know about other things, but the very fact that his administration has aided (through policies) to bring up solar energy in the state, leaves me wishing that he become the next PM. Gujarat, for the record, has the largest solar power plant in the world. I got to know that through the Guardian UK website.

  29. vijay Says:

    Its a disgusting post by churmuri’s author. He is completely one sided without analysing facts on ground. May be soon you will get rewarded with a “Padma”Shri

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