POLL: Beginning of the end of BJP in Karnataka?

Every survey supposedly done by pollsters in Karnataka has shown that the BJP has slammed the doors of the “gateway to the south” on its face. From a low of 113 in a house of 224, pollsters are predicting as high a tally as 133 for the Congress. And almost every poll has shown that the BJP could end up between 30 and 40 seats shy of the Congress in the legislative assembly, which means there is no room for “Operation Kamala-II”, the disgusting subversion of democracy that the legal lights of the BJP hailed.

If there was room for doubt if not suspicion about the motives and motivations of these polls, the results of the March 7 elections to the urban local bodies dispel them somewhat. The Congress has won three of the seven city corporations, so far. The BJP has been routed in Bellary, the epitome of all that has been wrong with Karnataka politics in recent years. And the BJP is staring at the prospect of ending up not even second but third in the tally of the wards under its belt.

Questions: Is it all over the BJP in Karnataka or could the assembly elections spring a surprise? Can the heady cocktail of casteism, communalism and corruption that was the hallmark of BJP rule in Karnataka blunt the hype surrounding its government in Gujarat?

Is a resounding victory the end of Congress’s troubles or the beginning of the tussle for leadership? And even if it comes up trumps in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, will the Congress ever make up in Karnataka, what it is most likely to lose in Andhra Pradesh?

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42 Responses to “POLL: Beginning of the end of BJP in Karnataka?”

  1. Alok Prasanna Kumar (@alokpi) Says:

    Five years of wilderness for the BJP beckons.

    I don’t expect the Congress to capitalize on this though. There’ll be repeated rebellions, counter-rebellions, defenestrations and coup-d’etat-by-High-Command galore… in the first year itself :p

    The only bright spot will be that HD Deve Gowda and Sons will spend another five years away from power.

  2. Sanjeeva Says:

    For all the dis-service it has done to Karnataka, BJP deserved this rout. It lost a golden opportunity to give a good governance and strengthen its base. There are more leaders in the party than petals in a lotus – that was another problem.

  3. Deepak Says:

    No doubt. BJP has got hammered and will get hammered in May too. But Congress is by no means home and safe. Even in the ULB, Cong hasn;t got majority of seats and BJP + JDS + BSR is almost equal to Cong. If Cong remains overconfident and doesn’t work together, then we would very well have a hung assembly with a JDS-BSR Govt. supported by BJP!!

  4. madhusudhan B S Says:

    this is too early and naive to tell that BJP would exit , but they must be taught a lesson for their mismanagement of governance , people are fed up , we have seen cong-i and JD(S) we cant expect much from them

  5. Brahmanyan Says:

    This may be a warning shot from the middle class educated voter. BJP should start cleaning up their Party now, if they want the support of the common-man in the next elections. We all know Congress is not the alternative, but it capitalized the TINA factor.

  6. narayana, narayana... Says:

    BJP made many mistakes and was late in acknowledging them and worse, acting on them. Giving the reins to Yeddy and continuing with him when he showed his incompetence but amply proved his greed to cling to power was one big error. At least now, the party must learn to nip the trouble in the bud.

  7. dr ramesh Says:

    Best part of the results declared today is the performance of jd s. It has improved its performance in northern and central karnataka and consolidated its position in Mysore karnataka.
    If one sees the seat groupings it is clearly evident that jd s is increasing its popularity slowly but steadily.
    Congress getting so many seats is surprising and sad because in spite of poor performance as main opposition party and taking a careless stance regarding cauvery issue, people of karnataka are trusting them.
    But surely things will change and people of karnataka shall vote for regional party decisively in the upcoming vidhanasabha elections.

  8. RaoWords Says:

    They were the worst government in history of Karnataka, no day was spent without in-fighting and the political drama. BJP lost the plot as soon as they started to in-fight.

  9. Bubba Says:

    Sad indeed; Karnataka Needs a Regional Party. But no great Architect for it.

  10. Abhishek Says:

    BJP has picked up over 900 wards and is at No. 2. The party that has suffered real rout is JDS, not BJP.

    I suppose you can negate gujarat with Karnataka. As we all know, this is the 5th successive time Congress is winning a 2/3 majority in Karnataka, isnt it?

    BJP will likely lose the May election in Karnataka. But it will be back in 5 years. Thats not called slamming the door shut, its called anti-incumbency. Look it up.

    Losing 5 times in a row with the ruling party winning 2/3 majority each time…now that is an example of door slammed shut; like Congress has been shut out of gujarat.

    But wait, we all know Chidambaram claimed victory AFTER the results from gujarat were declared, so I must be mistaken :P

    I hope you are ready to cry tears in December, when BJP thrashes INC 4-0 in the hindi heartland. Enjoy Karntaka, this will be your last victory in 5 years.

  11. Doddi Buddi Says:

    BJP will definitely lose and probably there will be a coalition government in the next Vidhanasabha elections.

  12. Faldo Says:

    Even if the KJP had not split off from the BJP, the party could still have only hoped for second place. In the previous ULB elections in 2007 the party was in the third position with Cong at 1600+, JDS at 1100+ and BJP at 1000+. In the current polls the Congress certainly has gained with over 1900 wards and the other two parties at 900+. The last ULB poll results did not actually get reflected in the assembly elections in 2008. However, this time it does seem that the Congress has an edge though the results could be a lot closer.

  13. Narayan Says:

    Good riddance of BJP. They have spoiled the political atmosphere. They have done irrepairable damage to karnataka and politics as a whole, with operation and kamala and use of speakers chair to their whims and fancies. But the irony is sleeping congress is given majority. God only save karnataka. Rid of one evil BJP and bring in another evil Congress….God help us…

  14. asha Says:

    Last time in ULC elections BJP came 3rd but went on to win the assembly elections…this time it is in 2nd position so what is the logic you are using here..JDS is the biggest loser..it has lost 40% of seats from 1500 to around 900. So either you dont know math or you dont know poll predicitons or both…so chill please

  15. Sanjeeva Says:

    Dr. Ramesh sir, your support for JD is your personal choice. But why do you live in stark illusions and delusions and making the people laugh! BJP and JD got almost equal numbers. Yet you say that JD is gaining popularity and it will even win decisively in Assembly elections! There is no surprise that Congress got majority. People perceive that they are able to provide a stable and better governance compared to JD. What has JD contributed in the last five years?. They have not been able to make an impression of its presence!

  16. harkol Says:

    End of the road? I hope not. But, it is likely that it is a ‘road side stop’ for 5 years.

    BJP needs to shed the wrong ‘leaders’ within, find a leader with good character, outlook & agenda in Karnataka. This party waited patiently for long in Karnataka, and then went berserk in taking all sorts of people.

    Even the long term members like yeddyurappa, got deep in to corruption vortex, atleast a dozen of its ministers were massively corrupt. So, it has to be punished.

    But, Karnataka doesn’t need to go Tamilnadu/Andhra way of looking for ‘regional parties’ which typically are not a solution at all.

    So, BJP will make a come back, after some time in the ‘Pravasi Thangu Dhama’.

  17. Shree Says:

    Whoever wins the power should keep one thing in mind: Not to repeat the mistakes their earlier power-holders did. Especially in the corruption front. Congress had the Bofors scam, so when it came to power, NDA too plunged into other defense, bribing scams. After that scams only got increased, not decreased. Whoever comes to power will certainly have an eye on the black money they could make, it’s certainly a trend to be curbed. We need a saint cum ring master at the top who will keep a vigilante eye for corruption under his own wings and never hesitate to take tough decisions when the time comes for it.

  18. Simple Says:

    Abhishekh, Dream on. Delhi, Assam, Maharashtra, Haryana has shown that anti incumbency doesn’t work for Cong governments. Badly governed states of BJP like Uttarkhand, Himachal, Jharkand and now Karnataka got the boot from the people of India.

    Cong is set for a rich haul of 140 plus seats in Karnataka Assembly polls. Even if BJP wins the other 4 states due this year, it doesn’t mean anything. BJP is set to be routed in Bhiar minus JDU. it will be 40 out of 40 seats for UPA in Andhra because Jagan has clearly told he will not support a party filled with child murderers like Maya Kodnani in Modi’s cabinet. BJP will get big fat zeros ( or maybe a handful) in several states like J and K, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Assam, entire North east of seven states, Orissa, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, etc. So it looks tough to cross 140 for BJP.

  19. A JOURNALIST Says:

    Good thing is both Yeddy and Reddy are finished.

  20. harihara Says:

    BJP has to learn from defeats. It has to employ technical and economy specialists and draw a development program for holistic growth of all in this country with special emphasis on the weaker and downtrodden and the tribals as they are the core of the cultural nation which is its goal .it hsould get over its animosities and think practical scientific and big . Economic development to all is the key Otther things can be built only on a full stomach. shelter, job etc. it has to work for agradual discardal of the caste system and hindu refoerm keeping the core philosophies of Monism Dualism and Nihilism intact for any oneto select way of life.It sshould fight sale or force of religion and ways of life. More important it should ensure IP generation , Produict and Process research and R and D and IP People should know that it apologizes for mistakes and promise practical and prohghressive growth.

  21. praveen Kodabagi Says:

    BJP is the worst party ever, We infect cannot even call it a party it is a classic case of Party within a Party. Even if they manage to win the elections this year there will even be a bigger war for the chief ministers and other prominent posts. Bjp is infected with full of uncompromising and not very convenient rats.

  22. Deepak Says:

    drramesh anna your loyalty towards jds is touching. It is time they make you head of their IT cell. JDS is a loser in this election. Their home turfs of Ramanagar, Magadi, Mandya and Hassan have been breached and their seat tally has come down. What more is needed to show that JDS is the loser along with BJP!!! HDK made the biggest mistake of his life listening to his sickular dad and cheating Yeddy – that incident has ruined JDS prospects!!

  23. harkol Says:

    A true solution to our problems: Let us have elections every year. This way Representatives will be answerable people in short periods, and can’t do ‘too much’ damage. :)

    Alternatively, we should have a single person directly elected as administrative head (call him governor, president, chancellor or prime minister, Chief Minister etc.). He can’t be removed. Legislature will be a seperate election just to make laws. The administration won’t make laws (like the cabinets do today).

    We simply can’t sustain the current stupid system.

  24. dr ramesh Says:

    Sanjeeva sir,
    Bjp has around 105 MLAs, they are ruling party—- they have won 906 ULB seats.
    Jd s has 26 MLAs —- they have won 906 seats.
    Jds was labelled as party of old mysore—- they won seats in all districts of karnataka.
    Jd s was labelled as anti lingayat— they have won in basava kalyana, gangawati, gulbarga,bidar, yadgir, bijapur etc.
    Congress, Kip had taken a oath to eliminate jd s but people proved that jd s is always a force to reckon with.
    Jd s is peaking slowly towards the finale, Congress has peaked early .

  25. Goldstar Says:

    @Harkol,

    you mean the presidential form of governance, don’t you?

    But yes, the government term should definitely be reduced to a 4 year term at least. 5 years is too long a time.

  26. harihara Says:

    there are views here for presidential form; in our countrty in the present state of behaviour of all of us, no single person can govern; the person will be avictim of terror, graft or rape-the latest weapon for high GDP

  27. Saif Says:

    I think JD(S) is the dark horse. If the Cong stumbles in the next 5 years, there is no reason why JD(S) wont make it on its own for the 5 years after. The advantage of voting for ‘Appa Makkala’ party is that they don’t have remote controls in Nagpur or 5 Janpath to control them. Kumaraswamy has the confidence and when the short public memory forgets the power transfer ‘betrayal’, there is no stopping him. BJP has lost it and very badly. I don’t think it can ever create an atmosphere where it can win on its own (Reddy brothers’ money support + Kumaraswamy ‘betrayal’ + ‘Let’s give it a chance’ syndrome by traditionally non-BJP voters); not in the next 10 years at least.

  28. Sanjeeva Says:

    Dr. Ramesh sir, It was rather known that BJP will lose given their track record in the last five years of tamasha, that was called governance. But the question is whether JD is moving ahead? JD had 1052 seats in 2007. After five years, it is 905. Does it indicate any progress in any manner? JD has not been able to project itself as a party ready and fit to give a stable and good governance, whereas despite Congress involved in umpteen number of scams, and despite having more than one CM aspirant, has won considerably. Does it not show that people are reluctant to give a try to JD? And let us not talk in terms of this caste and that caste.

  29. RsShi Says:

    I seriously doubt if congress will get a clear majority in the upcoming elections. But high chances of forming a govt with the support of JDS. Whatever may be the result of assembly elections, BJP will have upper hand in 2014 election due to Modi factor.

  30. FirstReality Says:

    Harkol,
    System is only as good as people under it. We have almost copy pasted that of UK to yield quite different results.

    What makes you think if we copy paste it from US, it will get better?

    I think the solution is to vote candidates in your constituency who have relatively honest intentions without really getting into idealogies.
    Given enough time, most candidates should turn out to be honest.

  31. the colonel Says:

    We simply can’t sustain the current stupid system.

    So if you do it every year; its wisdom is it??????

  32. the colonel Says:

    to all BJP supporters.

    Please for GOD’S sake at least KNOW what HINDUISM is?

    once known you would know what shit is.

    the same for the other party.

  33. harkol Says:

    @Goldstar

    Presidential style, not necessarily president. We can still have titular president.

    My wish is that the true head of state/executive is elected directly at all levels and held responsible. Other folks should only act as a check & balance, but shouldn’t be able to pull him down all-together. This lets him focus on job at hand, instead of always looking to save his administration.

    No need for ‘operation kamala’ or such horse trading. He will be all powerful, and he’ll name his ministers – thus he has no excuses like ‘coalition compulsion’.

    To watch against him becoming dictatorial, the constitution should have a balance – The parliament can kick him out with 2/3rd vote or with majority vote with Supreme court bench concurring on parliament’s action on sound legal ground.

  34. Shreekar Says:

    @ harkol & Goldstar

    The current political system is the fountainhead of all corruption. Our small town had a BJP man as the Municipal President. When asked why he did not opt for a second term, he revealed that as President he had to ensure that a per centage of all municipal contracts approved by the Municipality was remitted to the party coffers. If this is how it is in a very small sleepy town, imagine the scale it operates at higher levels in cities, metros and State Capitals.

    What was the criteria for selecting P. Patil as President?

    Was it because there was no higher bidder?

    As Arvind Kejriwal is fond of saying, all parties are but different faces of the same coin.

    As Harkol says “We simply can’t sustain the current stupid system.”

  35. the colonel Says:

    OK lets have a presidential system.

    How would Srinagar, Calcutta, Madras, Bombay, Delhi, Bangalore, Hubli, Mangalore vote with no commonality in all these places.

    How would the Intelligent (SI) and the Stupid (NI) vote. Nothing Common.

    A point after the recent Urban elections, Yeddy makes sense? Remember we are all intelligent.

    How would the Ladakhi’s, Nagas, Mizos, Manipuri, Arunachali’s vote.

    So back to Square One.

    So back to 15 to 17% vote. AND WIN

    Support the EC move for a 40% minimum vote to declare a candidate elected. AND a NO Vote to be also Counted.

    Lets have Electronic Voting, Hardly any Cost, Can be spread over 4 Days, and you can vote from anywhere, as it is open 24 hours, you can vote any time, just log in with your PAN, Your DOB, and your Bank Account Number. AND YOU CAN VOTE FROM YOUR CURRENT LOCATION, even if you are on the moon.

    If you say NO, do explain.

    Remember this will be all inclusive.

    You may or may not Give Three Choices.

    If you do all these MAYBE there will be a change.

    Maybe.

    Now do not start carping and craping over this.

    This sequence i have narrated is an improvement over the current practice which is more than 70 years old.

    IF DONE; MAYBE there will be a change as it becomes all INCLUSIVE.

    How do you Send Whisky Electronically.

    Ans: Through Courier.

    Have a Sip.

    enjoy

  36. Goldstar Says:

    @Harkol,

    I don’t agree. If you have an all-powerful executive, all the checks-and-balances will eventually fail at one point or the other. Some crisis or the other will be precipitate an “emergency”/dictatorship.

    The better alternative (in my opinion) would be to have elections every four years with scheduling such that there would be one major elections every year so that if the ruling party doesn’t perform they get early kicks in the b**t.

    BJP got a big kick in the ULB elections now but that hardly matters to them now since they have already made their money and still have 2-3 months to make the most of their Assembly term.

    Instead if we had
    Year-1: Assembly elections
    Year-2: Free
    Year-3: ULB and BBMP elections
    Year-4: National elections
    Year-5: Assembly elections and so on;
    There will be a constant feedback loop into the system.

  37. dr ramesh Says:

    Sanjeeva sir,
    Urban voters in karnataka may not have fully voted for jd s as an alternate to bjp, but they have given enough clues to indicate that they could consider them in coming elections. Rural karnataka is jd s traditional strength.
    It depends on the bent of mind the analyst has viewing the results. Congress men already readying themselves for swearing in of new government will be in for a rude shock.

    If u could believe modi when he says, holding a half filled glass that he believes glass is full, half with water and half with air, then u have to accept that jd s is on its way to win forth coming assembly elections.

  38. harkol Says:

    @FirstReality:

    > if we copy paste it from US, it will get better?

    Who is advocating copy-pasting US?

    We need to take out flaws of current system:

    1. ‘collective responsibility’ leads to ‘individual irresponsibility’. No one person is held responsible. thus you have possibility of puppets ruling the nation/state. We need to elect the person responsible directly and he should be answerable. It can the the PM or president.

    2. A few MPs/MLAs can hold country/state to ransom. They shouldn’t be able to do so. So, fixed terms need to be brought in to top executives.

    3. First past the poll system allows small percentage of voter purchasing to influence results. We need to have a system where the winner must have 50% votes. Over time such requirement will lead to creation of nationwide strong two or three parties. All these mom-and-pop parties will start receding.

    When the chance of buying 2% voters will cease to influence elections, black money power will become less important.

    4. Stopping an individual from having top posts for more than 8yrs, removes the ‘entrenchment’ and thus makes creation of dynasties bit more difficult (though not impossible).

  39. FirstReality Says:

    Harkol,

    Sounds good, but I seriously doubt any of it make any differences unless you have a population that intensely want quality of life over emotional issues such as caste/religion/language.

    Having a president like post/4 year term/restricting presidents to 2 terms are all the features of US system. Why do you shy away from saying that?

  40. the colonel Says:

    @FirstReality.

    “population that intensely want quality of life ”

    it exists and substantially.

  41. harkol Says:

    FirstReality:

    Because US system has a fatal flaw – It is a first past the poll system. if we adopted that in India, then we’d have a situation where the most popular party of Uttar Pradesh may win presidential election each time!!

    The reason why it works in USA is because of strong two party culture that has ensured all voters understand that voting for anyone other than the two candidate is a waste of vote. Such maturity will be lacking in India. In US They have also developed a completely democratic process for naming the Presidential candidate through primaries, which we sorely lack.

    What we need is our own twist. In fact, I don’t mind electors deciding on the Prime Minister, as long as his term is fixed to 4years, and he can’t be removed because a few MPs shifted their allegiance. Once sworn in he should have full powers & responsibilities. Buck can’t be passed like our MMS is doing.

    @Goldstar: If you had a slightly adversarial check&Balance with separation of parliament from president, the parliament won’t let President become autocratic. That is their role. As I said, a simple majority with Supreme Court siding with that majority is sufficient to remove the president.

    If a leader wants to become autocratic it doesn’t matter what system it is. Indiragandhi declared emergency and this country was ruled by Sanjay Gandhi for two years. Read Vinod Mehta’s comments on how Sanjay Gandhi was King of India, with even Indira Gandhi being No. 2 !!!

  42. K.P.SUDHEER Says:

    BY CHANGING THE CMS BJP WASTED THEIR SECOND CHANCE TO GOVERN KARNATAKA AND YEDURIAPPA BEFORE GOING OUT SHOULD THINK OF THE BJPTHE PARTY WHICH GIVEN HIM HALL, CERTAINLY CONGRESS WILL FORM THE GOVERNEMT IN KARNATAKA.ALL NON BJP PARTIES AND SO CALLED PSEUDO SECURALISTS WILL SUPPORT THIS NON HINDU GOVERNMENT OF CONGRESS

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