CHURUMURI POLL: Could Jayalalitha be PM?

Counting the chickens before they are hatched, is a familiar human frailty. And, as elections draw near with intimations of the mortality of the Congress-led UPA, there are many who are rehearsing their speeches from “the ramparts of the Red Fort” in the not unreasonable expectation that dame luck may not just smile but wink at them at the polling booths thanks to a lame duck government.

The Usain Bolt of them is, of course, you-know-who, who shall not be named. But a not quite unlikely silhouette is emerging from the shadows: Jayalalitha Jayaram.

With poll after opinion poll predicting that virtually 250 of the 543 seats in the next Lok Sabha may be occupied by non-Congress, non-BJP parties—with Tamil Nadu having 40 of them—the straws are somewhat leaning towards the Mysore-born AIADMK supremo who is now that State’s chief minister for a second term.

In just the last week, H.D. Deve Gowda (who became PM with 12 MPs) has suggested her name:

“An inner voice tells me that Indian polity is going through a sea change, and as a believer in the Hindu dharma, let me tell you that someone from the south is going to become the Prime Minister,” said Gowda, a frequent visitor to the Sri Ranganathaswamy temple in Srirangam, which also happens to be Jayalalithaa’s assembly constituency. “I wholeheartedly support the candidature of Jayalalitha for the Prime Minister’s post provided such a favorable political mobilization takes place.”

Now, the AIADMK general council has echoed Gowda’s sentiments:

“All the members of AIADMK want Jayalalitha to become prime minister this time and we have been working in this direction for the last three-four months. The federal structure of the country should give a chance to political leaders of other states to lead the country,” said M. Thambi Durai, an AIADMK leader in the Lok Sabha.

At a function held in Madras last year, Cho Ramaswamy of Tughlaq magazine said that Jayalalitha stood a good chance if Narendra Modi became unacceptable to NDA allies.

Obviously, this is speculation predicated on the assumption that neither BJP nor the Congress will be in a position to form a government on their own or with the support of their allies. But the fact that Jayalalitha has not met the BJP “prime ministerial candidate” Narendra Modi on three occasions, nor have her representatives been present at Modi’s rallies in Tamil Nadu, suggests that the flame of hope burns bright in more than just one Gujarati’s heart.

Questions: Does Jayalalitha, with her food schemes, her grasp of English and slightly understated demeanour in her latest term, stand a chance if AIADMK wins, say, 32-35 of the 40 seats? Is she a more accetpable bet than Narendra Modi? Will she be acceptable to other parties like Biju Janata Dal and Trinamool Congress, which are also likely to score heavily in Orissa and West Bengal? Will her proximity to the left parties (the CPI’s D. Raja won with AIADMK support) make her more amenable to Mulayam Singh Yadav‘s Samajwadi Party, just to spite Mayawati?

Is it time a Mysorean became prime minister? (Just kidding.)

Also read: CHURUMURI POLL: Is Jayalalitha PM material?

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52 Responses to “CHURUMURI POLL: Could Jayalalitha be PM?”

  1. Gaby Says:

    Deve Gowda and inner voice!!

  2. Deepak Says:

    If BJP ends up with 150 or less, then they would prefer to make Jayalalitha as PM, rather than allow Mulayam to become PM with CON party support. But this seems doubtful as present trend clearly indicates NDA will comfortably touch and even cross 200.

    But Jaya’s obstinacy will ensure that she faces a BJP-MDMK-DMDK alliance which would cut votes and hurt her badly. The Tamil Nadu election has become interesting with BJP ready to make a grand third alliance, Karuna flirting with Modi and Modi’s original darling Jaya playing hard to get!!

  3. Gokulam 3rd Stage Says:

    Our own Mannina Manga supporting a lady who wants to nationalize Kaveri. I wonder what his loyalists in the Mandya region think about that.

  4. Shemej Says:

    Who has better chance to become the next Prime Minister of India?

    Till recently, I was of the opinion that Jayalalitha has better chance to become the Prime Minister of India. I called her educated but naive earlier. One more instance for her naivety is displayed when she announced her decision to contest all 39 +1 Loksabha seats from Tamil Nadu + Pondichery. Even if she had conducted survey across Tamil Nadu (using any agencies or state intelligence wing), that is a stupid decision after DMK severed its ties with Congress. People were angry wih DMK for not preventing the assassination of Prabhakaran.

    There is one strong reason why Jayalalitha may not be elected as Prime Minister after 2014 Loksabha election. If anyone who has watched Tamil Nadu politics can easily understand that, AIADMK doesnt have much influence in Tamil Nadu today. When DMDK of Vijayakant was formed most of the 10% votes that went to Vijayakat party was AIADMK followers. Jayalalitha evenl lost deposit in by-election. But AIADMK was able to bounce back in Tamil Nadu politics because of four reasons

    1) Massive anti-corruption wave
    2) Massive anti center feelilng because of the assassination of Prabhakaran and the role congress played (or the lack of it).
    3) Acute electricity power problem.
    4) Good arithmetic. Coming together of small parties under AIADMK leadership and projecting a winnable coalition before the assembly election as an alternative to DMK.

    If AIADMK contest independently, then-

    1) Jayalalitha will no longer be leading a larger political coalition. If DMK is able to get the support of Pattali Makkal Katchi, Vaiko, DMDK etc, the political situation will change in Tamil Nadu.

    2) There is no massive anti corruption feeling working against Karunanidhi now.

    3) There is anger against DMK and Congress. But the public anger is targetted more against Congress. DMK has severed its alliance with Congress, at least for now.

    4) There is a significant percentage of Brahmin votes in Tamil Nadu. If BJP and AAP contest large number of seats in Tamil Nadu, some of the upper caste votes may be divided. Vijayakant party is almost dead. However, DMDK can still take away some of Jayalalitha’s Dalit vote base.

    5) CPM has organisational strength in Tamil Nadu. If CPM doesnt support Jayaalitha, that will cause some problem for AIADMK.

    6) Jayalalitha was unable to solve electricity power problem till today. However, her food security programme has made her very popular.

    In short, there is a possibility that Jayalalitha may not be able to win 30 plus seats in Tamil Nadu, if she contest independently.

    Nevertheless, Jayalalitha today is very popular in Tamil Nadu. If she is projected as Prime Ministerial candidate, she may still get 39 + 1 = 40 seats.

    Who else has the chance of becoming next Prime Minister of India?

    Nitish Kumar- A good chance (with 9 to 14 seats)

    Mulayam – Some chance (with 25 seats) – But Mayawati (and arguably Mamata Banerjee also) will oppose him. Mayawati will oppose him for obvious reasons. Mulayam effectively fooled Mamata earlier, on the occasion of President election. Mamata and Mulayam formed a federal front and proposed the name of APJ Abdul Kalam but Mulayam later sided with Congress. Second reason- Mamata’s single most important agenda is to see that CPI(M) is not getting upperhand in National politics. Mulayam is closer to Left, hence Mulayam may not be her most favourite candidate as Prime Minister. She would never want to see that existing President and Prime Minister of the country are from her rival camp. And if possible, she would like to see, Prime Minister and President of India are from her camp. That is why, Mamata opposed Pranab as President initially. The same Mamata supported Pranab Mukherjee as a President, when no option was left for her. Similarly, she would try to see that the next Prime Minister of India is from “own camp”. Some one will obey her dictates. Someone who will dance according to her tunes. Problem with Mulayam is that, he would prefer to dance according to the tune of —

    Anil Ambani
    Subrata Roy
    Corporate houses
    Arms Brokers
    Yadav caste politics
    Aslam khan
    conservative ideological vision (anti women, anti-lokpal and so on),
    religious and communal pressure groups
    left parties
    other regional parties
    Congress

    Mulayam will listen to the words of Mamata Banerjee after all above. Mulayam will give least preference to Mayawati.

    The problem is — Mayawati will get more loksabha seats than Mulayam. So, other parties wont listen to Mulayam beyond a point. If they dump 25 seats of Mulayam, they can be hopeful of the support of 31 seats of Mayawati. Mayawati is very unlikely to become the Prime Minister. (This point is discussed here earlier — moronsview.blogspot.com ). Hence, if Mulayam is rejected as Prime Minister by other regional parties, there are two advantages for them– 1) All others can now dream of Prime Minister post. 2) They got 31 seats of Mayawati in their camp, instead of 25 seats of Mulayam.

    Exactly for the same reasons, Left parties will initially propose the name of Mulayam Singh as the Prime Ministerial candidate, to be rejected by all other parties. Left parties would achieve two things with this move. One– they get the support of Mulayam’s 25 MPs for the collective bargain later. That means, 30-32 seats of Left and 25 seats of Mulayam will become the single largest pressure group after BJP and Congress, if Left propose the name of Mulayam as Prime Minister Candidate.

    But, in my view, Mulayam may secretly try to seek the outside support of BJP for his Prime Minister post, but that would not materialise for two reasons. If BJP ever propose Mulayam or Mayawati as Prime Minister of India, then they can never imagine to get 5 seats from Uttar Pradesh for the next ten years in Loksabha elections. That means, BJP can never imagine to form a Govt at center for the next 10 years, as winning sizeable number of seats from Uttar Pradesh is crucial to form the National govt in India.

    Hence, we can safely argue that, BJP wont support Mulayam Singh as the next Prime Minister of India. For this simple reason, Left will always propose his name as the next Prime Minister of India.

    Congress may support Mulayam Singh as the next Prime Minister, but would never support Mayawati as next Prime Minister. If Maywati ever become the Prime Minister of India, her BSP will take away majority of the Congress vote base of Madhya Pradesh, Rajastan, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Chattisgarh and so on. If BJP supports Mayawati, that will create and issue for next ten years only. After ten years, they can still imagine to regain their political dominance, simply because they have an organization. But if Congress supports Mayawati, that will be the end of Congress. Congress can never bounce back, because, they dont have organization at grass root level, but only have mass following. If BJP supports Mayawati, then that will force a re-alignment of the caste and class constituency of BJP. That is possible. But if that happens, then it is going to be a miracle. The whole upper-caste followers of BJP will dump it overnight, if BJP support Mayawati as Prime Minister.

    Can Mamata become Prime Minister? No.But…

    If Congress fails to get 100 plus seats and if BJP fails to get 175 seats, Mamata Banerjee has good chance to become Prime Minister.

    Her main agenda is to keep Left out of power. As long as CPI(M) is led by Prakash Karat, left will not participate in Government. For Mamata, it is more important to see that her arch rivals are not influencing the National govt. She would go for any sacrifice to achieve that goal. If BJP fails to form the next Union Government in India, Mamata Banerjee WILL FORM THE FOURTH FRONT AFTER 2014 LOKSABHA ELECTIONS, and this Fourth Front will be supported by BJP from outside for next one year. This is a strong possibility.

    But who are the constituents of this fourth front?

    All non Congress, Non BJP parties, except the friends of Left.

    Mamata Banerjee will get 30 to 34 seats from Bengal. But Left will make a near clean sweep in Kerala (even if BJP win a surprise seat this time), and a clean sweep in Tripura. As the Congress, Trinamool Congress contest each other, Left parties wont lose too many existing Loksabha seats in West Bengal, especially, in the backdrop of Sharadha Chit scam. (This is not to say, Mamata is unpopular. Mamata is still hugely popular in West Bengal. And people like Budhadeb is hated by rural population). And Left will also win 30 plus seats. Mamata Banerjee lacks strategy and a principled stand. She is unpredictable. The main attraction of Left is that, their 30 to 32 MPs are a free bonus. You dont need to give Prime Minister post or Minister post to these MPs. In a situation, where Left and Mamata win almost equal number of seats, most regional parties would prefer Left simply because they are reliable partners with predictable policy and political stands. Who would like to form a govt with the support of an individual who would dictate others to dance according to her whims and fancies. No such govt will last for more than 3 months.

    Nevertheless, people like Naveen Patnaik may prefer Mamata Banerjee simply because, it is the CPI (and not CPI(M)) which is in the forefront of agitations against mining mafia in Orissa. Secondly, the neo-liberal group within CPI(M) led by Budhadeb Battacharya is much weakened now. Most centrist parties would have been happier to see CPI(M) is led by people like Jyothi Basu, Budhadeb or Sitaram Yechury, who are/were having pro-corporate views within CPI(M). Of course, as part of their strategy, Congress would officially propose the name of Budhadeb or Yechury to lead Govt and they would offer outside support. (mainly to divide CPI(M) camp) But as the pro-neo-liberal group lacks influence among the masses today, it is unlikely that CPI(M) would participate in the next government.

    Even if Naveen Patnaik, Mamata Banerjee and Nitish Kumar form a coterie, they are unlikely to influence the majority of regional party leaders. The only one reason why this fourth group will be put together, because the BJP want to ride piggy back on this fourth front. Hence it is going to be the BJP which is the real power center behind the fourth group.

    What is going to happen after the 2014 loksabha election is simple.

    If the BJP fails to form the next govt (That BJP cant form a govt is almost certain), then many parties will come together under the banner of so called 3rd front. The arch rivals of the constituent parties of this 3rd front parties would come together to form 4th front- a loose political pressure group.

    This fourth front may not be formed based on any principle or ideological stand. The constituent parties will be mutually distrusting. Yet, their number will not be that insignificant.

    This is because out of some 220 Non Congress Non BJP party MPs getting elected to 2014 loksabha are all fighting each other in their respective regional states. Like AIADMK of Jayalalitha and DMK of Karunanidhi. Or Chandra Babu Naidu, Chandrashekar Rao and Jagan Reddy. Or Lalu and Nitish Kumar.

    These rival parties can not come under same banner. Hence it is inevitable that, there would be a third front and then a fourth front after the next general election.

    This implies, the third front as a group can not form the govt without the outside support of either Congress or BJP.

    Total Number of Congress MPs after 2014 Loksabha election wont touch three digits. Besides, AAP would divide Congress vote base more than that of BJP vote base for two simple reasons– 1) BJP vote base is consolidated in a few Loksabha constituencies, where they have clear dominance as of now. AAP taking away 3 to 6% of BJP votes wont make much problem to BJP. But AAP taking away 1 to 10% of votes of Congress will affect the winnability of their candidates in more constituencies, compared to BJP. But even if the AAP doesnt take away a single percentage of BJP votes, that would do more damage to BJP than to the Congress. This is because, in the coming Loksabha election, Congress is a sure loser. AAP taking away a few more percentage of votes is not a big issue. When AAP die their natural death (after three four years) these votes would go back to Congress (at least that is a possibility.). But the small percentage of urban votes that AAP takes away, would have reached the NDA kitty, if there was a more direct fight between Congress and BJP. In effect, AAP’s participation in elections would ensure that BJP would never cross the psychological 200 mark in the next Loksabha election.

    If BJP dont cross 200 marks that means BJP can now think of supporting the ruling coalition from outside, and it can not imagine to form the next government. Here is where the pathetic brains of BJP strategists failed miserably.

    As of today, BJP has a good chance of forming the next govt.

    But if they dont form the next govt, they are not going to influence much control on any govt that is going to be formed.

    Why?

    Simple. With a polarizing campaign during the pre-poll period, BJP ensured that the society also is polarised, and that has contributed to the “untouchability” factor. In short, BJP is more untouchable in Indian politics under the leadership of the evil polititian. The whole opposition against Congress is that they are in power. The moment, the Congress declares that they are not after power, most of the political parties would make friendship with them to help form the next govt.

    There are two more factors why Congress is more acceptable to other regional parties compared to BJP under the leadership of evil leader.

    Congress doesnt have firm ideological stand. Manmohan Singh and Manishankar Iyer represent two opposing ideological visions.

    But today’s BJP can not imagine to ignore Corporate after accepting their money and support.

    On the question of secularism, Congress is more acceptable than BJP. If regional parties accept BJp’s outside support their minority vote base (Mamata, Jayalalita, Nitish, Lalu, Mulayam, Mayawati, Omar examples) would be washed off.

    Congress doesnt have cadre base in the grass root level. Congress can not organize militant struggle agaisnt the ruling Govt and take the control away. But BJP with RSS backing can pose real threat to any govt if they take outside support from BJP.

    However, there is the most important factor that favours BJP when they want to control the next govt. That is numbers. BJP will have at least 75 to 100 MPs more than Congress in the next Loksabha. Here is a tricky situation. There is good possibility that, No govt can be formed after the next election, even if Congress and Third front parties come together. But BJP with its 160 to 190 seats can extend support to any third or fourth front leader and such a leader will become the next government.

    I dont imagine that there will be a big change in the leadership within BJP after the next Loksabha election. That means, BJP’s strategy after the results are announced would be to find new friends for the 2015/2016 Loksabha elections.

    BJP would support any third front leader who may help BJP to form the govt in the 2015/2016 Loksabha election. Who are these leaders?

    1) Jayalalitha (DMK will further split and they are of very little use)
    2) Mamata Banerjee

    3) Naveen Patnaik

    4) Lalu Prasad Yadav

    5) Chandra Babu Naidu

    6) Jagan Reddy

    7) Chandrashekar Rao

    9) Existing partners of NDA

    10) Other small parties like Pattali Makkal Katchi, Vaiko and so on.

    If Cho Ramaswamy himself declares that, Jayalalitha is the second best candidate as Prime Minister for NDA, that indicates what RSS leadership think.

    But there is small problem.

    If the BJP supports Jayalalitha, what is going to be BJP’s game plan?

    If BJP joins Jayalalitha Govt as junior partner, that will undermine the BJP at national level. Neither BJP would be able to exert any influence on such a govt nor it can stay away from the taints of scams and corruptions of that govt. Obviously, BJP will try to give outside support to Jayalalitha.

    But if BJP ever gives outside support to Jayalalita, when are they going to pull down that government? At some point, they should pull down that govt, right? Otherwise, people will forget about BJP slowly and come to the conclusion that regional parties can give stable govt at center.

    As there is this anti-defection law in India, there would be only one party that can bring down Jayalalitha govt, if it is formed with BJP support after 2014. That is BJP itself. (who else would try to bring down the govt? Naveen? Mamata? Why should they bring down a govt which they influence? They may make all right noises against their own govt for publich consumption, but if they bring down that govt, they may lose everything. It will only help their political opponents to seize the opportunity.

    The only one party which is in a hurry to bring down that govt will be BJP itself. Even if the BJP wont bring down the govt for next two years, it will organize large number of communal riots through out India to polarize the society. (like what they did when they were partners of coalition govts in Karnataka and Gujarat (Chimanbhai) )

    Here is the problem.

    Jayalalitha may be willing to support soft hindutve line. But Jayalalitha is the Chief Minister who arrested Shankaracharya and there is only one art Jayalitha knows in her life. That is to control, dominate, subjugate and humiliate others. If anyone who tries to control Jayalalitha will automatically become her number one enemey. If BJP withdraws support to Jayalalitha, ten others will come forward to support her. If BJP wont withdraw support to Jayalalitha, their mass base will shift towards AAP, congress and other parties.

    Yet, Jayalalitha becoming the Prime Minister of India, with BJP support is a major possibility. And at some point, BJP bringing down that govt with the help of other groups also is a good possibility. But it will be interesting to see how two arrogant, self centered and polarising leaders co-exist in one coalition.

    Jayalalitha may become the Prime Minister with the support of either BJP or Congress.

    However, according to me, BJP may also try to support Naveen Patnaik, Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar, Or a senior leader of Akali Dal

    BJP will not support Chandra Babu Naidu, or Jagan Reddy as Prime Minister, simply because that will alienate all other Andhra Political groups from BJP.

    BJP will not support DMK, MDMK, Pattali Makkal Katchi and AGP leaders as Prime Minister because they wont be having large number of MPs in the 2014 Loksabha.

    BJP will not suport support Deve Gowda, Yechury, Siddaramaiah, Budhadeb, Omar Abdulla because of ideological reasons.

    BJP will not support Nitish Kumar as Prime Minister because of ego clash between top leaders.

    BJP will not support Lalu Yadav as Prime Minister (in 2014 – we are not sure about future) because it may adversely affect their image.

    BJP may project an individual with positive public image (like Gen VK Singh, Anna Hazare) as Prime Minister Candidate and request all other parties to support him. However, this strategy wont work in today’s politics.

    BJP will not support Mayawati and Mulayam as Prime minister. The reasons are explained in this article.

    In today’s political situation, people like Sushma Swaraj or LK Advani et al will not become Prime Minister, because, everyone knows who would be the real power center. Most of the third/fourth group parties who are willing to support Advani or Sushma as Prime Minister are willing to support Modi as Prime Minister.

    Hence, if a govt is formed after 2014 Loksabha election with the support of BJP, then.

    One of these individuals would become Prime Minister

    a) Narendra Modi, b) Jayalalitha, c) Naveen Patnaik, d) Sharad Pawar or e) Mamata Banerjee

    If a govt is formed after 2014 Loksabha election with support from congress, then,
    One of these leaders would become Prime Minister

    a) Jayalalitha, b) Mulayam Singh Yadav, c) Nitish Kumar, d) Mamata Banerjee, e) Naveen Patnaik, f) Farook Abdulla, g) Sharad Pawar

    Congress will not form a coalition govt with outside support from Left (will not have the numbers). Congress and UPA neither would get majority nor they would get the required numbers to form the govt next time. Hence —

    Rahul Gandhi will not become Prime Minister after 2014 elections
    No other person from congress will become Prime Minister.

    Congress may support the idea of a popularly accepted person leading a third front Govt. But Congress doesnt have political authority to control people like Anna Hazare or Justice Rajendra Sachar. Congress may like the idea of a prominent Industrialist/public figure leading a third front govt with Congress supporting from outside. But most Industrialists lack knowledge about how to handle coalition politics. Hence, that possibility can be ruled out.

    Hence it is almost certain that next Prime Minister of India will be one of the following people:

    a) Narendra Modi, b) Jayalalitha, c) Naveen Patnaik, d) Sharad Pawar e) Mamata Banerjee, f) Mulayam Singh Yadav, g) Nitish Kumar, h) Farook Abdulla.

    Among all these leaders, Jayalalitha has the highest possibility of becoming the next Prime Minister of India, followed by Naveen Patnaik, Nitish Kumar and Mamata Banerjee.

  5. kris Says:

    Churumuri,

    Why are you taking Gowda seriously? We should be talking about if Gowda and his family will become irrelevant after the next elections. More importantly, you should be encouraging us to discuss how AAP is going to affect all of us. Get priorities straight.

  6. babuds Says:

    She or Karunanidhi do not have national stature. They can’t think beyond TN.

  7. DHL Says:

    Assuming that the Earth’s orbit around the Sun is in the Horizontal plane, Earth currently revolves not directly Vertical but an inclination of around 15 degrees to vertical.

    If Jayalalitha were to move to New Delhi, Earth would incline towards the Sun by some measure. Which directly exposes the Artic Ice to Sun, melting and loss of Chennai.

  8. Uman Says:

    @Shemej ..
    man its a looooooooooooooong comment
    congratulations too all who finished reading, me not one of them.

  9. Deepak Says:

    @Shemej – A dark horse could be Parkash Singh Badal. If BJP doesn’t do well, they could back him as NDA PM and people like Mamta, Patnaik, Jaya and maybe even Maya and Nitish wouldn’t have too much problem backing up. This is of course if BJP does badly, which at the moment seems unlikely.

  10. Anonymous Guy Says:

    Shemej, Interesting analysis. Good stuff.

  11. Doddi Buddi Says:

    Dirty Tricks Devegowda’s statement is comical; He and his family have become irrelevant in KN politics!

    Jayamma can never be the PM of India! Her psychotic behavior in dealing with Sri Lanka rules her out completely to any higher office outside the hysterical TN politics! Jayamma IMHO resembles a “saree-draped-over-a-large-rice-bag” personality is the most ill-suited person who could ever become the PM of India.

  12. Anonymous Guy Says:

    DB,
    Jayamma: “saree-draped-over-a-large-rice-bag” personality.
    :)

    Bere ganya vyathigala ee tharane personality analysis maadi.

  13. Shemej Says:

    “A dark horse could be Parkash Singh Badal.”

    I see the possibility of NDA projecting Prakash Singh Badal. I have discussed that above.:

    “BJP may also try to support Naveen Patnaik, Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar, Or a senior leader of Akali Dal.”

    But, can he become the Prime Minister?

    Today’s, political situation is very fluid. And yes, anyone can become Prime Minister.

    But when we do a realistic analysis, we have to distinguish between remote possibilities and good possibilities.

    What is the advantage of Prakash Singh Badal? The only advantage is, BJP can say, here is a minority leader- come support him. And those who cant support evil leader (people like Nitish, Mamata et al) can support him. I agree with the logic.

    But if BJP presenting Badal, will that bring more MPs to NDA side?

    We have to understand two things here-
    1) There can not be President rule at center. (It is against constitution)
    2) There is anti defection law.

    http://parliamentofindia.nic.in/ls/handbook/chapter5.pdf

    We should understand that after the 2014 Loksabha election, NDA would immediately realize that it can not form the Govt under evil leader. Well, let us assume that they declare Akalidal leader as their Prime Minister choice and they give a letter to the President of India. Good.

    But why should people like Jayalalitha, Mamata, jump to NDA on the very first day?

    Jayalalitha may be dreaming with her subconscious mind, put she must be calculating with conscious mind. She knows for sure, if she ever wants to become the Prime Minister, arguably, this is the only one chance in her life.

    See this link to understand the post -2014 Loksabha election scenario– http://moronsview.blogspot.in/2011/05/2014-loksabha-election-resuts-congress.html

    If she declares support to AkaliDal candidate on the very first day, she will be wasting her best dream in life. (After all, she has to put Karunanidhi in Jail, at least for one day– to revenge her imprisonment earlier).

    I dont rule our the possibility of Jayalaliltha, Mamata or Nitish supporting Akalidal , as a last resort. BUT THEY WILL NEVER DO THAT IN THE INITIAL DAYS.

    If NDA claims to form the govt, then Pranab Kumar Mukherjee will invite NDA prime minister candidate to prove majority in the vote of confidence. Who is going to vote NDA at this stage?

    Remember, every one in India (including VM Shemej who is writing this blog will be dreaming to become the next Prime Minister, IF NO ONE ELSE GETS THE REQUIRED NUMBERS.

    Once NDA fails, the second chance goes to Rahul. Obviously Rahul will reject the offer.

    Then the chance goes to a common candidate of Third Front and Congress or the common candidate of Fourth Front and NDA

    See, how Akali Dal leader is now out from the race.

    One big problem of this game is, NO ONE FROM NDA OTHER THAN evil leader can become the Prime Minister.

    If NDA gets the required numbers, then Narendra Modi will become Prime Minister. There is no chance for Akali leader.

    When NDA officially admits that they dont have the required numbers (when evil leader reject President’s offer to take the voting on Confidence Motion), why should a 35 member AIADMK leader extend support to a 6-7 members of Akali Dal leader?

    This is not realistic analysis.

    If NDA doesnt cross 200, then one thing is sure, it is hung parliament and there is going to be one more election after one year or two years. Why should Third Front parties join NDA and suicide (in the next assembly election)?

    When that party leaders admit they cant form the govt, then BJP WILL BE FORCED TO EXTEND OUTSIDE SUPPORT TO people like Jayalalitha.So that, people like Mamata can tell her constituents that, “SEE, WE WILL NEVER ALLOW BJP TO RULE INDIA. WE ARE SUPPORTING JAYALALITHA ONLY.” So that, their minority votes will not be lost (there is significant number of minority votes in West bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Though there is only 12 percentage minority votes in Tamil Nadu(Muslims -6 + Christians -6) the combined votes of Christian, Muslim,Secular and Left could be some where 18 -25% in Tamil Nadu. (There was a Dravidian movement earlier) Taking outside support from BJP and joining a BJP led front are two different things. Jayalalitha, Mamata and Nitish wont take that risk of joining NDA now.

    In case NDA doesnt get required number, then they have to project a leader from OUTSIDE NDA, so that NDA total strength and the new leader’s strength and other small parties who want to get some minister post, all put together will help this new formation to win Vote of Confidence. But NO ONE FROM NDA OTHER THAN evil leader can become the Prime Minister after 2014 election.

    And who ever is backed by NDA should have at least 20 to 35 seats. Otherwise, all other small parties will fight and go with UPA+ Third Front.

    If Narendra Modi fails to get the numbers (say 220 seats), then they have to back some one like Jayalalitha or Mamata. AND not Akali Dal leader.

    Hence, Akali Dal leader becoming PM with the support of BJP is ruled out.

    Correction: There is a line in my previous post:
    “As of today, BJP has a good chance of forming the next govt. But if they dont form the next govt,….”
    It should have been “As of today, BJP has some chance of forming the next govt. But if they dont form the next govt,…”. The error is regretted.

  14. victor Says:

    @Shemej: Jayalalitha will never become a P, Why reasons are simple. Andhra Pradesh, both Jagan and Chandra babu Naidu support BJP, Uttar Pradesh Mulayam singh lost trust I the last 1 year. BJP has a strong chance to win minimum 30 seats there. Bihar nitish kumar is losing ground and BJP is gaining. West Bengal Mamta bannerji will win, but she is not believable ally to any party. Karnataka congress will win. A government cannot be formed without the support of congress and BJP. Most likely pm Narendra Modi. These are the biggest states in India. Tamil Nadu, Jayalalitha may win around 30, her decision to break the communists alliance showed only one thing, a post poll alliance with BJP. She can never win 39. She is also not a believable ally, still she is a good friend of Modi.

  15. Kumar Says:

    Looks like, you are all underestimating the “Modi Wave”.
    Waves don’t work in a progressive manner. They just come like a Tsunami and sweep everything on its way!
    The “Modi Wave” is very strong and people are desperately waiting for a BIG change and they are looking at Modi as the ONLY hope.
    So, when this happens, then everything else – like caste, local politics, secularism, etc – will take the back seat.
    This is what happened in 1977 when Janata Party came to power, this is what happened in 1989 when V.P.Singh came to power.
    So, I think, BJP will get majority on its own this time and Narendra Modi will become the PM.

  16. asha Says:

    DB,

    MSM are clutching at straws..they want anybody and everybody to contest and win against NAMO..esp after the Guj court verdict clearing NAMO’s name in 2002, these morons will get even more desperate..keep watching and enjoy the show

  17. the colonel Says:

    ” Earth currently revolves not directly Vertical but an inclination of around 15 degrees to vertical. ”

    isnt it 22 to 24 degrees and not 15.

    now about the pm:-

    as per kapil sharma “punjabi’s dont do anything, but some directly become pm”

    as per kapil sharma ” i have seen a guju trying the same thing. ”

    so J my school-mate won’t make it.

    but there is a k.

    kejriwal

    “yeh subbah kabi to ayeegi…………… tan tan tana”

  18. Shemej Says:

    Will Rahul Gandhi become Prime Minister of India after 2014 Loksabha Elections? What is Congress’ game plan?

    Now that the News is breaking in, indicating that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is going to resign and Rahul Gandhi will swear in as the next Prime Minister of India before the Loksabha Election.

    As it is discussed here earlier – http://moronsview.blogspot.in/2011/05/2014-loksabha-election-resuts-congress.html . It is absolutely impossible for Congress to form a govt after 2014 Loksabha elections, on its own.

    But Congress has done a few clever moves which have ensured that BJP now has ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE TO FORM THE NEXT GOVERNMENT. This is exactly why the news reports appeared “BJP looks to bring more parties into NDA fold“. This exactly why Yeddyurappa is hurriedly taken back to BJP, despite Yeddyurappa proposing tough conditions.

    This also shows that Gujaratis have some of the finest brains in the world. Not all Gujaratis are Daddas (idiots) like Narendra Modi. If we dont know who is that Gujarati, who is forming Strategies of Congress and made these clever moves for Congress, then we are not eligible to discuss Indian Politics– It is none other than Ahmed Patel

    Well, as it is pointed out in the above blog earlier, Congress had already done discussions with BSP in Uttar Pradesh and Lalu Prasad Yadav in Bihar. Uttar Pradesh has 80 seats and Bihar has 40 seats. Narendra Modi, as we understood from NDTV videos (I posted those links earlier in Churumuri), engineered communal riots in Uttar Pradesh, hoping it can bring Jat vote bank in Western Uttar Pradesh to BJP’s fold. I feel, BJP is successful in this game plan. As Jat population in general, has a problem with Samajwadi Party’s Muslim Politics, and they always thought they enjoyed more political influence in Uttar Pradesh and in India compared to Yadavs (when Charan Singh was their UP leader), section of Jats, it appears are now rallied against Samajwadi party. This is why Sonia Gandhi promised to give OBC status to Jats. BJP has prominent leaders from non-Yadav OBC castes and they already enjoy the support of Brahmins and Thakurs. The strategy of BJP is to rally all Non-Yadav OBCs, Thakurs, and Brahmins under BJP to oppose Samajwadi’s Yadav-Muslim alliance.

    In a clear move, Congress made discussions with Mayawati. If Mayawati, forms electoral alliance with Congress, she can ensure that Samajwadi Party is permanently kept out of power in Uttar Pradesh. In return BSP-Congress alliance can win approx 45 seats or more from Uttar Pradesh. This is a brilliant move. The clear loser in Uttar Pradesh is going to be Samajwadi Party.

    Same thing is going to happen in Bihar. Either under the leadership of Rabri Devi or son, Lalu is going to join hand with Congress. Lalu-Congress alliance has better chance to win, compared to BJP and Nitish Kumar. It is Nitish Kumar, who is going to be the clear loser in Bihar.
    But the ray of hope is how Aam Admi Party would perform in these states. Aam Aadmi party would eat into the votes of BJP and Congress and third front parties with rural base would get benefits.
    Congress is said to be making discussions with Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal. In West Bengal, the only popular CPI(M) leader Abdur Rezzak Mollah has already announced his decision to quit CPI(M) after coming Loksabha election. It is very likely that Abdur Rezzak Mollah along with Presenjit Bose, would form a genuine Communist Party in Bengal and later join with other rebel leaders of Kerala, Punjab, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. CPM is going to face major set back in West Bengal, mainly because people of West Bengal hate Budhadeb Bhattacharjee. However, Mamata- Congress combine can not make an impressive victory in West Bengal. There would be infighting between Congress and Mamata, even if they join hands in Bengal. Left is sure to win approx 30 seats from all over India. However, if Congress forms a pre-poll or post poll alliance with Mamata, that is one more plus point for Congress to form a Govt at center after the 2014 Loksabha Elections. Interestingly, the presence of Aam Aadmi party would have major impact in West Bengal Politics. The urban vote bank of CPI(M) (that support Brahmin lobby like Budhadeb) would be washed away and rural base would go with Mollah. Interestingly section of Mamata followers who are disappointed with Sharada and similar scams would also support AAP.

    CPM can not form any understanding with Congress before or after Congress, under Manmohan Singh is clear. In an interview with Karan Thapar, Prakash Karat had openly stated that Manmohan Singh is an agent of USA and it is the USA which is determining india’s policy was known to them even before Wikileaks revealing secret documents, is there in the public domain. CPM’s party congress has decided NOT TO support any Congress govt after 2014 Loksabha Elections.

    It is interesting, thus, when Prakash Karat declares that Aam Aadmi Party can emerge as an alternative to Congress and BJP in India. This means, CPM would initially propose the Name of any third front leader or an Aam Aadmi Party leader as the Prime Minister Candidate after 2014 Loksabha Election, as a joint Third Front Candidate, if election is going to throw up a hung parliament.

    According to me, Congress cannot form a Govt after 2014 Losabha Elections even if Rahul Gandhi’s present Govt come with major sops and populist schemes to people, UPA won’t be able to come to power in the next Loksabha Election. If Congress insists that, one of its nominees be made Prime Minister, then parties like AIADMK with highest number of MPs other than BJP and Congress would move towards NDA.
    This is why Congress wants Nanden Nilelkani to contest to Loksabha. If the post Loksabha election scenario is not favourable for Rahul Gandhi to head a Non- BJP govt with support from a few third front parties, Congress would (unsuccessfully) push Nanden Nilelkani as Prime Minister.

    But, the Prakash Karat group of CPM may rally behind Aam Admi Party (which is expected to win Loksabha seats in double digits (perhaps upto 30 seats) , Mulayam , Jayalalitha or Nitish Kumar et al. Budhadeb group is will try to support Congress government in return for supporting CPM in regional state elections.

    If Rahul Gandhi becomes Prime Minister of india before the present Loksabha is dissolved and if Congress is successful to form a pre-poll alliance with BSP, then it is certain that the next National Government in India would be formed under the Third Front Prime Minister with outside support from Congress. And in such a scenario, no Govt will be formed in India with outside or inside control from BJP.

    And in every possibility, BJP is going to suffer a humiliating defeat, and that will cause a lot of internal bickering in BJP. I will be surprised if a large number of BJP leaders do not challenge Narendra Modi’s leadership. According to me, one thing will be proved after the 2014 Loksabha election—People with evil mind may be able to influence some people for some time, but ultimately people with some intelligence can only make any impact in social life.

  19. Hari Says:

    Correction : She is the CM for the third term, 1991, 2001 and 2011

  20. Doddi Buddi Says:

    Is Shemej another Dr. Ramesh with even more convoluted theories than humanly possible? LOL

  21. Deepak Says:

    @Shemej – I thought from your previous post, you were a logical follower of politics. But your latest rant proves that you are part of the anti-BJP brigade which writes crap desperately hoping it will come true. Don’t worry, your darling CON party will never even come near to forming a Govt. It will be a BJP govt at centre without fail. Further if you think BSP will enter into an alliance with CON and AAP will win 30 seats, it shows that you have zero knowledge of politics!! All the best for your mungerilal ke haseen sapne!!!

  22. Praje Says:

    Churumuri just like The Chindu wants to believe anyone but NaMo will become PM. How much has Congi paid you?

  23. asha Says:

    Now that Prashant Bhushan has shown his true colours vis-a-vis Kashmir…AAP will be history soon..forget about winning in 2014 LS elections…so much for marxist/traitors disguised as anti-corruption crusaders

  24. dr ramesh Says:

    Doddi,
    Shemej is light years ahead of me, he has enhanced the intellectual quotient of this forum.
    I understood the meaning of LATERAL THINKING after reading his posts.

  25. Doddi Buddi Says:

    Dr Ramesappa,

    Right. We all have understood the meaning of ‘Collateral Thinking’ after your post! LOL

  26. Shemej Says:

    44% of voters in India’s top metropolises say they will vote AAP for Lok Sabha: Times of India opinion poll.

    I have pointed out this possibility in Churumuri forum well before Delhi Loksabha election- see here —
    Shemej Says:
    1 November 2013 at 12:54 am
    “If Arvind Kejriwal wins 20 – 25 seats from Delhi, wouldn’t that embolden AAP to field more candidates during 2014 loksabha elections or not? And whose urban votes Kejriwal is going to divide? Again, who is going to be at loss?”

    In big metros of India 25% of people consider Arvind Kejriwal as better Prime Minister candidate and Rahul gandhi with 14% support, is in the third position. If we can believe the findings of Time of India-IPSOS, 58% voters believe Modi as better prime minister candidate. However this finding is based on the survey among voters from major Metros. This survey doesnt represent the voters from small towns and rural India.

    Interestingly, 44% voters say if an AAP candidate contest from their constituency, they would vote to AAP. This is really interesting. If 44% of voters (arguably among younger voters and not representative of the entire voting public) are already considering to vote AAP in these major Metros, that means AAP has clear winnability in urban segments. When majority of people realize that Congress is not in the picture, that would prompt the existing vote base of Congess to dump that party and rally behind AAP. This would have a major impact in Indian politics.

    This has three major consequences:

    1) Congress is going to disintegrate into small regional parties in the near future.

    2) In short term – Indian political main-stream is going to be divided between BJP led NDA and Non Congress Non BJP opposition. This broad league of Non Congress, Non-BJP opposition include AAP (whith would win third largest number of seats in the 2014 Loksabha election), AIADMK of Jayalalitha (4th position), BSP, Trinamul and left (5th, 6th and 7th positions but may not be in the same order), Samajwadi Party (8th position), JaganrReddy party of Andhra, RJD of Laluyadav, Naveen Patnaik (9th, 10th and 11th position- but may not be in that order), JD-U, NCP, Telegana Party of ChandrasekharRao (12th, 13th and 14th position- with some changes), TDP, AGP, DMK, DMDK, AkaliDal, National Confrence, PDP of Mufti Muhammed Sayed and so on.

    3) Long Term effect – When congress disintegrates itself, only a secular political formation can occupy that space. However, Congress also represents urban middle-class interest. Currently Congress and BJP stands for Urban Middle class. Currently Congress and Third Front parties stands for Secular values. AAP stands for urban middle class interests and secular values. Hence it would divide BJP’s urban middleclass votes but wont touch BJP’s core communal vote base. And AAP would divide Congress’ and other parties’ secular votes. However, AAP will not become the biggest group representing middle class. Similarly, it cant divide rural secular vote base of third front parties, in a big way. The so called “rural secular vote base” in India is nothing but “voters standing for feudal values” . Voters representing feudal values have two faces. The first one representing zemindari interests and reactionary interests. The other one representing anti-zemindari interests. But this anti-zemindari interests is not always a progressive one. In most cases, they represent another caste group opposed to the land-lord communities. As AAP stands for urban middle class, it is unlikely that, they will make inroads into marginalized sections in rural areas. Many urban middle class in India have relatives in rural areas who are propertied class. The dalits and other landless communities would be sceptical about the intentions and political language of these upper-caste- middle-class “bada aadmi”. But some of the old Janata Parivar leaders would jump into this new boat. That means, Janata Parivar would lose many honest leaders to this new outfit. If AAP is negotiating with khap groups and Bharatiya Kisan Sabha etc, then this would start represting the “rich farmers” of Rural India. But one thing needs to be noted here. Even today, Mahendra Singh Tikayat et al failed to get clear dominance even at Panchayat Levels, where as Mayawati is a tall political leader representing masses. I think Yogendra Yadav (the real brain behind AAP -other than Prashant) would soon realize that India of today is not the India of Charan Singh era. The rural population is divided based on different castes and ideology. The moment you ally with one of these entities, all others would brand you as enemy.

    As explained above Congress, BJP and AAP all compete for urban middle class voters. Out of these both Congress and BJP represents business interests. Right now, AAP represents anti-establishment interests. However, in not so distant future, the class interests of the core base of AAP would force that party to ally with business interests. This is because, idealism is short lived, but class interest are not. Class interests of the followers of AAP go in harmoney with India’s corporate interests. Say for example, if there is large scale corporate investments in urban India, the urban property owning urban middle class would directly benefit from that, as the rental value of their buildings and appreciation of land would increase, shop keepers would get more business, their children would have better employment opportunities etc. Idealism wont give them money. Right now, there is huge resentment against Congress rule among Indian urban middle class based in cities. They sincerely believe they are fighting against corruption. But in reality, they are not against corruption. They stand for their own vested interests. In the backdrop of global finance crisis, India is unable to attract large scale business investments. This has nothing to do with Congress rule. Most of the business in recent past in India happened because of the inflow of foreign capital. Foreign fianance capital is only looking for short term gains. When there is a melt-down in the western market, large scale outsourcing to India does not happen. As a result of this, middle class in Indian cities feel the heat. Their anger is reflected in anti-establishment sentiments. Anna Hazare and Arvind Kejriwal built a movement against corruption. This movement against corruption took all those who share resentments against the ruling establishment. In that sense, the middle-class in Indian cities endorse corruption, if the yeild is shared with them. But right now, the ruling oligarchy is unable to share the loot among larger section of urban society. In this context, the middle class in cities, all of a sudden, became more aware of the big ticket corruption happening in this country. Essentially, the class interest of city based middle class can not maintain harmony with their newly found idealism, in the long term.

    At that time, (and if AAP still exists after two or three years), all these parties AAP, Congress and BJP would be representing the middle-cass interests based in cities or the coporate business interests. (Large number of AAP followers would get disillusioned with AAP leadership, in not so distant past and would go back to BJP and Congress. Majority of them would continue to exist as small splinter groups representing the interests of different regional and other business interests.

    The new innovations in the production of shale gas in USA would help USA to accelerate the Industrial growth of that country and that would boost business all over the world once again, in not so distant future. That means, city middle class will be less complaining agaisnt the corruption in India, in the coming years, but would be busy gulping whatever small portion they are able to. This would take the game once again back to the square number 1. The real class division in Indian society, would once again come to the fore. The urban rural divide, the working class-corporate divide, the dalit question, exploitation against the women, exploitation in the unorganized sector etc would divide the polity once again.

    I would imagine that the break away factions of Congress and some of the regional parties would align themselves with the Left parties in India to represent the rural and urban poor population. The left also is deeply divided and one section of left has already shifted towards right. West Bengal unit of CPI(M) would disintegrate further and a more radical left political group would emerge in the political sphere of India.

    BJP would realize that the biggest folly that they committed was to take a far right position, thus alienating large section of civilized urban middle-class. For the first time in the last two decades, BJP is losing its status as the “biggest anti-congress-group” in India. What ever BJP has built in India, they built by this Anti-Congress tirade. When a stronger group emerges to fill this space, BJP will lose most of its liberal followers. India has a little less than 11% far-right-wing, chauvinistic, vote base. They would continue to rally behind BJP. They may still conduct a handful number of communal riots here and there. Most of their leaders would still make some influence in the society, just like what Sriram Sena chief Muthalik is able to do today. Many erstwhile Janata parivar leaders (who are now with BJP) would abandon saffron party to join, existing centrist parties, AAP or similar avatars that may emerge in the future.Or they would form their own regional outfits.

    There would be more chaos in the coming days, with tens of small parties fighting each other, representing regional and identity based interests, but when people are disgruntled with the infighting between coalition partners of ruling governments, they may vote en-mass to one or two bigger parties, on regular intervals. But what lies ahead is the era of coalition politics in India. There would be powerful coalitions fighting each other at national and state levels.

  27. Deepak Says:

    @Shemej – if you are going by results of TOI poll, then continue with your delusions. Firstly, the poll has a sample of hardly 2000 people which is insignificant. But what is significant is that 58% of the sample prefer Modi as PM!! But 44% will vote for AAP? What rubbish!! Very clearly, this is a doctored poll, done by TOI as a part of the promote AAP campaign which is being carried out by paid media nowadays.

    Paid media is in panic that Modi may become PM. They have realised that their darling Rahul is a flop and so have latched on to Kejri in desperation!! Good luck to paid media and to AAP fanboys like you. There is only one way AAP is going and that is down.

  28. Shemej Says:

    There is a misinterpretation of facts above. (may be unintentional ) I think it is important to clarify.

    “Shemej – if you are going by results of TOI poll”
    No, I am not. TOI survey only endorses what I have written in 2011. That is, 3 years back. Read what I have said in the pages of Churumuri itself earlier.

    58% voters supporting Modi according to TOI survey. Why should anyone disbelieve what the survey says?

    58% in some urban constituency supporting Modi as Prime Minister doesnt mean they would vote other BJP.candidates. Modi cant contest in all constituencies. He can contest only in one or two constituencies. But when people say they are ready to vote AAP candidate, that is a more positive statement. This means, when an ordinary BJP candidate and an ordinary AAP candidate contest, whom will these people vote? Please think. Vajpayee got more support as a Prime Minister at that time.

    No one said, (not even the survey), that AAP is stronger party than BJP. BJP is expected to emerge as the single largest party.

    When people say they would ready to vote “If there is an AAP candidate in their constituency” that has only this meaning. Right now there is no candidate in their area. Right now there is no AAP in their area. But if AAP select a good candidate, then 44% is already ready to vote for it. The initial election surveys to Delhi predicted only a handful number of seats to AAP. When actual polling date was approached surveys started giving more seats to them. The last survey predicted 19 seats for AAP. But when the results were annouced, it got 28 or something like that.

    If there are 44% of people ready to vote AAP even now, then after they do a good campaign and field a good candidate, it is expected to perform well. I dont say AAP will win all seats. I only say, it would win nearly 50 seats, if this election survey is true. But it would divide the votes of BJP and Congress. Simply because all these parrties are urban parties. Secondly many of the followers of present day AAP were originally followers of movements like “youth for equality”, “campaign for jessica lal” etc inspired by popular film Rangdebasanti.

    In the initial days, RSS asked its caders from all over india to support Anna hazare movement. Even my relative who is an RSS karyavah and two of his cousins who are town panchayat ward members went to Delhi to support Kejriwal/Hazare movement.

    I dont say all those supported Hazare are from RSS. They are not. But BJP will sure, ge set back.

    There are several reasons why AAP party would divide BJP votes. I would like to publish 50 such reasons why the AAP would divide BJP votes. (please watch Churumuri later)

    But I agree that AAP would divide Congress more. In fact Congress would disintegrate after 2014 (discussed above).

    People keep accusing me as Congress supporter, AAP supporter and what not. (I agree, most of my criticism against Congress were not published here by Churumuri. But see the above comment, I clearly state Congress would disintegrate (and I am accused that I am a Congress man.). I have given criticism against AAP above, which according to me, even Prabhat Patnaik has not criticised. And now I am called an AAP man.

    Anyone who reads these comments can clearly understand I am a leftist. If someone can not understand even such basic things, what can I say?

  29. Vinay Says:

    Shemej:

    One honest and innocent question. How do leftists/socialists dare to proclaim their economic leaning openly in India? Is it a lack of shame, or deliberate trolling?

    After having devoured the nation from within for decades, leftists still have the temerity to stand before us and preach the virtues of socialism. Poverty reduction and national development has taken place only in the last 15 years, as leftists were marginalized more and more. Yet, leftists enjoy spitting on the faces of Indians and continue to preach poverty propagation and poverty distribution. More worrying is, after ruining a large chunk of the world (East Europe), they still discuss socialist utopia.

    What is it that makes leftists/socialists so thick skinned? Are socialists made of a different kind of hide compared to normal humans?

  30. Shemej Says:

    I have already explained why Socialism is THE ONLY RELEVANT view and why capitalism is a bankrupted vision. I have given supporting facts. (Please dont come with absurd arguments saying Congress was socialist etc. At least people are expected to have wikipedia level of knowledge. That is a wonderful tool in front of all of us, though many of what is typed there is complete nonsense.)

    See here- What I have answered these same questions earlier:

    http://churumuri.wordpress.com/2013/09/05/poll-do-you-believe-narendra-modis-pm-claim/

    20 September 2013 at 7:10 pm

    Also here —

    http://churumuri.wordpress.com/2013/08/29/what-manmohan-singh-should-really-be-doing/

    I asked all admirers of Capitalism to question a single line that I have posted, by providing valid sources.

    There was no answer.

    This is what our gentleman friend Vinay posted in response to my discussion earlier:

    “Vinay Says: 28 September 2013 at 1:15 pm
    Shemej: I didn’t bother to read your full post”

    If anyone tries to understand why Mukesh Ambani is getting 14.2 US Dollars per mmbt unit now, when in 2004, they had reached a contract with Govt for selling Natural Gas for the next 17 years, for 2.34 US Dollars per mmbtUnit? And when they reached an agreement with govt to sell KGBasin D6 Natural Gas (D6 that is allotted to Mukesh, in krishna Godavari Basin Natural gas field) for US Dollar 4.2 till March 2014 why they are now charging 14.2 Dollars per mmbtu?

    And as a result of this what is the price people are paying for LPG cylinders and petrol and diesel?

    As a result of petrol/diesel price hike, the entire commodity price had gone up. (due to C/A deficit too as gold import went up).Why I and you are paying more price for buying vegetables, rice. wheet and so on?

    Jailpal Reddy submitted a report saying if Reliance was allowed to sell Natural gas at 14.2 US Dollars, that company would get an additional 43,000,00,00,000 in just 2 years. Govt removed Jaypal Reddy and allowed Mukesh Ambani to reap this benefit. Why?

    That is nearly 22thousand Crores per year. That is 2 thousand crore per month. And what is this profit? Are they inventing anything new? Nothing. India’s ONGC found out KG Basin gas first. God only knows how Reliance got this contract (see how many times India’s top political leaders travelled in his helicopters. How much crores Mukesh spent for Political leaders for election campaign. How much core Mukesh is spending for Narendra Modi for election campaign using CNN-IBN TV networks. How many times CAG criticised Manmohan govt and Narendra Modi govt for doing favours to Mukesh Ambani at the expense of people of this country)

    And what is that Mukesh Selling? It is the property of the people of India. They are not the owners of that. They can at the best work in that field and they would be given profit for doing that work. The gas is not their property.

    If Ambani is not allowed to sell Liquefied Petroleum Gas at market price, the Foreign Capital (especially Foreign Institutional Investment) would run out of Indian system.

    Now, if Mukesh is allowed to reap windfall profit, the fertilizer and power sector India will face close down. Agriculture will become complere loss, as fertilizer price will go beyond unrealistic rates. When power sector goes in crisis lakhs of jobs will be lost. India’s educated youth would become jobless. Their future would be in darkness.

    If Corporates are not allowed to do accumulation of national resources and sell at unreasonable price, the Capital flight would happen from India. But If they are allowed, that would close down other industry which employ (may be) 75% of the population.

    This is how Capitalism works.

    Most critics of Capitalism do not know the abcd of Economics and they simply say blah.. blah.. blah… to get attention. But I know our friends at Churumuri have good intelligence and knowledge. I welcome them to post some content at least. Some argument at least supported by facts. At least thousands of others who are going to read these pages wont under estimate them. Please type something here providing sources to prove your point. Let us have a meaningful debate. Throwing abusive words and then run away is so easy. But we can really show the willingness and ability to study and discuss. Please. This is only a request.

    If any one find out why Mukesh Ambani company is making these huge profit, then they can understand how the Capitalism works. But if any one needs to understand they should have the minimum ability to think. I dont think anyone lacks the ability to think here. However, when people are guided by deep rooted prejudices, they become blind. People tend to see not the reality, but emotionally coloured version of reality. But we all suffer because of this lack of ability to see what is obvious.

    It is so easy to come with an answer like this:
    “I am not interested to discuss isms and economic system. shit, fxxx, crxxx.”

    The discussion is meant for those who can read and understand.

    I can see a pattern of behaviour. When some one tries to give honest answers by providing facts, and supporting sources, Why run away,?. After two or three weeks, when the old pages go out of visibility once again ask the same old questions and again run away without giving repies. Let us be frank and let us have some meaningful discussion. Please.

    Just a friendly request. Thanks in advance my friends…

  31. Vinay Says:

    Shemej:

    Again, I have not read your full post, I skimmed through it. The reason we “run away” is, we have full-time jobs and are busy people, who don’t have the time to read three pages of text where one would have sufficed.

    What I gathered from your post while skimming through it is, you are talking about crony capitalism, whereas I am talking about free market enterprise with regulations. You keep talking about Ambani, while I talk about Captain Gopinath and similar people. I am talking about entrepreneurs and you are talking about crony capitalists.

    Before preaching economics to the whole wide world, you need to understand the difference between these two terms. And you also need to stop this Marxist/Islamic line that “socialism is the only truth, but socialism has never been implemented in true fashion anywhere in the world, so don’t give me any socialist country examples, I will do it in India and show you what real socialism is, allow me to experiment on you”. Thanks, but no thanks. Keep your experiments to yourself, allow entrepreneurs to flourish, allow the market to flourish, have strong state regulators, and stop the socialism nonsense.

    Increase the size of the pie, stop trying to distribute the existing pie.

  32. Shemej Says:

    “you are talking about crony capitalism, whereas I am talking about free market enterprise with regulations”

    Okay. Accept your view.

    Show me a single capitalist country, where capitalist built their business empire with pure entrepreneurship and WITHOUT CRONY CAPITALISM.

    Just a single example is enough. Anywhere in the world. I will stop supporting Socialist principle.

    From the whole universe. Any time in the history. Please. It will be a great service to this humanity, if any one give a single example.

    The only advantage for Capitalism (and its latest form that is finance capitalism –) is that it has enough resources. It controls all the technology. It denies technology to other countries and people.

    When Transnational Corporations control all the resources of the world and all the technology, and deny resources and technology to 99% people of this world, it can create a false impression that, for all development that is happening in the world, Capitalism is responsible.

    I have already discussed these things earlier. Still repeating.

    Vinay says: I have not read your full post, I skimmed through it. ….. who don’t have the time to read three pages

    Okay. Accepted.

    Not able to read something is not a criminal offense. However, not having the proper understanding about a subject and then insisting only “WHAT I SAY IS RIGHT” is not a healthy attitude. (please read your own old posts. See the language that is used. I dont want to comment on that.). As I said earlier, every one here is intelligent. But no one wants to take the pain to understand the real facts. The reason?

    Not that they dont have the time. I am also doing one full time job, also helping to do a small work which no way concerned with my personal life, Plus posting comments here. I dont read all comments in Churumuri. But I dont normally comment on matters which I dont understand. I keep quiet. Simple. Imagine Churumuri editor editing a National magazine and find time to edit his blog. See Arvind Kejriwal was a full time employee earlier when he first took up society issues. I consider myself extremely selfish and greedy and a person without social commitment compared to all these great people.

    Now read the words of some one who had the whole life time to read and understand what is capitalism. He is not a Marxist. Luckily for him his father kept giving him money till he was in his 40th age. So that he could study how capitalism works. You can trust his words:

    “”…….As the organisation of investment markets improves, the risk of the predominance of speculation does, however, increase. In one of the greatest investment markets in the world, namely, New York, the influence of speculation (in the above sense) is enormous. Even outside the field of finance, Americans are apt to be unduly interested in discovering what average opinion believes average opinion to be; and this national weakness finds its nemesis in the stock market. It is rare, one is told, for an American to invest, as many Englishmen still do, “for income”; and he will not readily purchase an investment except in the hope of capital appreciation. This is only another way of saying that, when he purchases an investment, the American is attaching his hopes, not so much to its prospective yield, as to a favourable change in the conventional basis of valuation, i.e. that he is, in the above sense, a speculator. Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. The measure of success attained by Wall Street, regarded as an institution of which the proper social purpose is to direct new investment into the most profitable channels in terms of future yield,…….”

    Quoted from “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” – John Maynard Keynes (emphasis added throughout)

    Do you think Keynes was a fool who didnt understand Capitalism and Economics?

    If Vinay doesnt have the time to read three pages, so is the case of hundreds of thousands of people who invest in Stock Market. No one tries to understand what is happening there. It is almost a blind belief. Crooked people can easily manipulate “innocent” people like Vinay.

    When Keynes says speculation is opposite word of entrepreneurship, we need to understand– There is not a single country on earth, where capitalism works without Speculation.

    What is the biggest strength of Capitalism? Nothing but control on resources, capital– in simple terms money. They have money. They buy everything with this money.

    When Transnational Corporations have “money” they can buy anything.They can buy technology, human resources, media, news, top bureaucrats, Govt heads. They control technology using intellectual property rights. And deny resources and technology to other nations.

    People who dont have time to read three pages mistake this as “progress and development”. But everyone want to become rich. People dream luxury life. They always like people who talk about making money. They consider Reliance ambani as hero just because Ambani allow multiply their investment.

    People who dont care to understand the dangers of this model, hate anyone who criticise Ambani. They hate any one who say Socialism and criticise capitalism.

    A few years back, when I said Outsourcing model can not save India, people criticised me (including Vinay- who was angry with me – Read here — http://churumuri.wordpress.com/2011/08/13/has-the-it-boom-quelled-bangalores-tensions . Now what is the case? Why Infosys is crumbling? Why didnt people understand the problems earlier? Whey they resign only now?

    Why I cant show a Socialist Country in the world?

    Simple- Socialism is a system people want to build in the future. I cant see something in the future. I can only show Capitalism is not solution to the problems of this world.

    Same as Democracy is an evolving system. Where is democracy in India? Narendra Modi mass murdering people of one community and play with the insecurity feeling of other community is Democracy? Mayawati playing with the sentiments of a particular caste group is democracy? We are living in a feudal system and we are building a democratic future.

    When we say India is a Democratic country that doesnt mean India has Democracy. But India is committed to democratic principles and we are trying to build a democratic way of life. It would take years, decades and centuries for people of this country to build democratic culture. Only when TN Sheshan came as election commission, the election was conducted properly here. Only when Vinod Rai came, CAG started functioning. Even now CBI is not independent. India’s democratic institutions are in a very primitive form.

    There were some Socialist experiments in the world. It would take hundreds of years to build a socialist society. But people, countries can accept socialist principles. But that is no where. What socialism exists in South American countries? They are all Capitalist countries. But they understand the evils of Capitalism and want to move towards socialism. yet they implement Capitalist policies.

    One reason is that, it is not possible for poor nations to isolate themselves from the developed Capitalist world. USA has all military power, they control technology. They control energy, they control resources.

    When some one warned Kalidasa, “if you cut the same branch, why dont you understand you wold fall down”. Kalidasa shot back. “How do you know? Are you an astrologer to predict the future?”

    Human beings greatest ability is to visualise what may happen in the future and take the right steps. Not all that we anticipate or plans may happen exactly like that. But to say: “You show me socialism first. Then ask others to believe in Socialist principles”

    I dont want to comment. Simply because I dont belive in offending people. Every one has certain strengths. Who am I to question others beliefs and blind-beliefs.

    I can only say (without any intention to slight any respected friends here) : Jai Kalidasa !

  33. papaba Says:

    what about the heavy baggage of corruption and illegal amassing of wealth cases against Jayalalaitha? wont it be a dead weight? So Modi is the only tallest leader who can deliver.

  34. Doddi Buddi Says:

    I am wondering whether Shemej is Arindam Chaudhury!!

  35. the colonel Says:

    “So Modi is the only tallest leader who can deliver.”

    1. Pathetic if we have only One Tall Leader.

    2. Deliver. But what will he deliver?????

    3. Narration of my personal version of history is a Godse.

    4. From a chai walla to a loha monger.

    5. So next we have a rikshawallah.

    6. Justice Katju was RIGHT.

    7. There is no end of meglomaiac’s . They Definatly have millions of followers.

    8. You are one of them.

  36. Deepak Says:

    @the colonel is probably a colonel who was not never seen a battlefield, so he unleashes his frustrations on us. Farzi colonel can keep singing paens to corrupt parivar and fraud anarchist Farziwal; India will elect Modi as PM and he can keep wailing.

  37. Doddi Buddi Says:

    Sorry Colonel, you sound like a sad twat! Justice Katju was neither judicious nor had any intellect to get on with the real world!

  38. golisoda Says:

    waste of time to discuss this. The decision of people can change until the second at which they press the button to cast vote.

  39. the colonel Says:

    @the colonel is probably a colonel who was not never seen a battlefield, so he unleashes his frustrations on us. Farzi colonel can keep singing paens to corrupt parivar and fraud anarchist Farziwal; India will elect Modi as PM and he can keep wailing.

    Sorry Colonel, you sound like a sad twat! Justice Katju was neither judicious nor had any intellect to get on with the real world!

    “So Modi is the only tallest leader who can deliver.”

    1. Pathetic if we have only One Tall Leader.

    2. Deliver. But what will he deliver?????

    3. Narration of my personal version of history is a Godse.

    4. From a chai walla to a loha monger.

    5. So next we have a rikshawallah.

    6. Justice Katju was RIGHT.

    7. There is no end of meglomaiac’s . They Definatly have millions of followers.

    8. You are one of them.

  40. Deepak Says:

    Poor @the colonel has lost it. Probably he was hoping to be AAP candidate for Bangalore South and be the giant killer who will defeat Ananthu and Nilu. Looks like his master Farziwal has cheated him – that explains the frustration. No problem colonel sa’b change your outlook, like all patriotic army men (assuming you are both) go to BJP, you may still find redemption :)

  41. Gaby Says:

    One of the rare occasions when I agree with the Colonel- on his assessment of the height of political leaders, particularly on “what will this tall leader deliver”. I don’t mind a chaiwalla or a academic scholar or even a rickshawwalla being The Leader.

    Reality is this man is the loudest in a group of pygmies- clown prince, loud mouth and toddler having a tantrum gang of leaders.

    DB is also right- Katju is a joker- not even an entertaining one at that.

  42. the colonel Says:

    Dear Deepak,

    You are out on a limb along with db.

    1. You dont know me at all and then you go out on a rant. Keep ranting.

    2. you cast aspersions freely .

    3. If you have a daugher, will she or has she joined the army.

    4. Tell me how long does it take a man with a burning tyre around his neck to die.? there is no cong or bjp fire? both are to say politely,crap.

    5.my past, present and future actions thankfully are not guided by your know it all.

    Keep crapping from your oral cavity, you upside down (like a bat),
    mental midget.

    5.and you were allways missing.

    and finally YOU Make No IOTA of a diff.

  43. Deepak Says:

    @colonel <> are you talking about your hero Farziwal? Anyway continue living in your delusional world till May 17th, after that anyway you will have to come back to earth.

  44. Doddi Buddi Says:

    Colonel it is obvious you belong to the ‘Puliyogre Regiment’ ! You still are a sad twat and a cynic. India needs gutsy leaders not ‘Sarees draped over a rice bag’ selling Idlis at subsidized ratea! No wonder the defence forces are in such a bad state with officers like you!

  45. Gaby Says:

    DB, and pray who is that gutsy leader you are yearning for ? Indira Gandhi in 1975 or Rajiv Gandhi 1987-90 or Modi in 2002.

    All we really need is a government that will not encourage corruption with enthusiasm and also take a few much- needed decisions for development and governance. Sadly there isn’t anybody to do this.

  46. Doddi Buddi Says:

    I am rooting for Modi; that is why there is so much opposition to him. Indira got lucky with the War; Rajiv was a novice when he appeared still a greenhorn when he departed abruptly. Strangely it is the ‘honorary congressmen and congresswoman’ of BJP who are opposing Modi in the likes of LKA, MMJ and SS!

  47. Shemej Says:

    Modi’s men keep attacking and threatening those who criticize him/his group–

    http://time.com/16197/india-siddarth-vardarajan-attack/

    However, Modi’s popularity started falling according to the latest election surveys. But, NDA’s over all projected seats remain more or less same. According to latest projections, NDA may get around 220 seats. They need another 50 seats to form government.

    When Jayalalitha broke ties with Left Parties in Tamil Nadu, she rang up Mamata Banerjee and NOT Narendra Modi.

    Well, I have been keep arguing that next Prime Minister may be from a third party supported either by BJP or Congress.

    All election surveys shows that, BJP doesnt get any positive votes. But the negative votes are going to BJP. This is because, India had its worst government which failed in all fronts– Manmohan Singh is the chief of Election campaign mangers of Narendra Modi.

    Interestingly in the Jat Mainland of Uttar Pradesh, (where communal riots were organized by Modi’s followers), Narendra Modi’s popularity is falling. Arvind Kejriwal is doing good here.

    If NDA ever form a government after 2014 Loksabha elections, that could only because of the seats they win from two States– Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. In Eastern Uttar Pradesh BJP is doing unexpectedly well at present, according to surveys. But there are problems waiting– According to latest surveys, other opposition groups are losing support base in both states. If RJD and BSP lose their base, anti-BJP votes may get consolidated. Nitish has the potential to attract upper caste voters too (though he fails to do that in Loksabha election, but he leads in Assembly poll predictions). AAP can win some upper caste votes in urban Uttar Pradesh.

    Recentsly lakhs of people read about “Narendra Modi Wife” online. When we type “Narendra Modi” in google, the search engine autocomplete throws up “Narendra Modi Wife…”

    BJP and Modi started campaigning early and was leading early. But when the elections are approaching, their popularity is diminishing. If it is a temporary phenomenon? We dont know.

    One thing that is very clear — BJP doesnt exist in South India and East India. All that it gets is from West India and North India. Where caste politics and feudal relationships get mixed with Politics. These states were called BIMARU states or cow belt of India earlier. Unfortunately the educated, sophisticated sections have to bear with the leaders of rabid communal elements, thugs and their internet campaigners. But that is how we learn and grow up as a Nation. There is nothing wrong in that. Once Janata Party was strong in Rajasthan. But after RupKanwar did Sati in Deorala, all local Janata Party leaders jumped to BJP, as Janata central leaders condemned the cold blood murder of a Widow.

    If NDA forms a govt by backing either Jayalalitha or someone like that, will that last long? What benefit BJP will get out of this? As I indicated earlier, any govt that is formed after this election would not last more than 2 years. And some group would be voted to power with absolute majority in the Loksabha election either in 2015 or 2016.

    According to reports almost all leaders in BJP are getting ready to revolt if BJP fails to form the government. There are clear evidences against BJP leaders in the Muzaffer Nagar riots. There are evidence against Amitshah for his involvement in murder. There is the case of “Madhuri” and related solar scam.

    There is only one way Narendra Modi can overcome all these troubles. That is by manipulating majority by “Operation Kamala”.

    As of now, the word “Arvind Kejriwal” ‘s online popularity is slightly more than the combined popularity of phrases “Rahul Gandhi” and “Sonia Gandhi” .(and half the popularity of the phrase “narendra modi”) This means, Aam Aadmi party would perform better than Congress in urban India. But Congress may win more seats in rural India.

    This has one meaning– Congress with less than 90 seats would be abandoned by its local leaders before the 2015/2016 election.

    Arvind Kejriwal has given a clear indication how he is going to counter Narendra Modi. Modi enjoyed challenging a naive Rahul Gandhi for open debates. But Kejriwal exposed all Modi’s lies, in a brilliant political gambit. From Economists like Amarya Sen , media like India Today, to ordinary citizens and netizens, every one keep pointing out that Narendra Modi’s claims about “Gujarat’s impressive development” were completely baseless. Read here — http://www.truthofgujarat.com/topics/myth-of-development-in-gujarat/page/2/ Yet, he continued to spread the same lies just because his political opponents (Congress) was clueless how to counter it.

  48. Vinay Says:

    Shemej:

    Cry your heart out, Modi is coming to power this time.

    People like you put all the blame for communal riots on “fascist RSS and Hindu organizations”. Actually, indirectly, it is people like you who are responsible for communal riots in the country.

    Let alone Muzaffarnagar and UP, can you tell me who was “responsible” for Bangalore’s riots in 2007? What is your “brilliant” analysis there, I want to know.

    And try to keep your response to under 1 page of text, please.

  49. Deepak Says:

    I miss Simple on this forum but Shemej seems to be an advanced version of good old simple. Every line in his anti-Modi rant is a lie. Just because Congress New Network made a poll which says BJP will cross 200 seats but yet Modi’s popularity has come down. All other polls including expert analysis by likes of Surjit Bhalla, Minhaz Merchant, etc predict 270 for expanded NDA. So Shemej’s dream of BJP failing to get 272 will never happen. And Jaya is a smart lady, she will not support Modi openly, but won’t attack him. In case BJP fails, she wants to have a plan B of becoming third front PM.

    And your lie about Muzzafarnagar has been blown away, The SIT has indicted BSP MPs and not one BJP MP has been indicted. This inspite of govts hostile to BJP being there in UP and Delhi.

    And Shemej’s mungeri lal sapna about Kejriwal is laughworthy. He is plainly an anarchist joker with no agenda, no vision and every single day his antics are losing voters. Please mark my words, AAP will cut Cong votes and help BJP and AAP will get 5-10 seats only.

    And as far as Gujarat’s records, false prophets can continue ranting, people of Gujarat and India know the truth and will show their support for Modi in the elections. The simple fact that shameless Scindia cancelled an awards program because Gujarat had won the award shows the desperation of anti-Modi camp which is trying its best to defame Modi.

  50. Shemej Says:

    “People like you put all the blame for communal riots on “fascist RSS and Hindu organizations”. Actually, indirectly, it is people like you who are responsible for communal riots in the country.

    This is the average Modi fans’ intellectual level. (No offence meant. I dont use the word intelligence… But “intellectual level” – please note the difference. I respect Vinay.)

    Just go though hundreds of pages published by Modi fans. Can any one show me a single line, a single line, which provides any insight about anything?

    And Jaya is a smart lady, she will not support Modi openly, but …In case BJP fails, she wants to have a plan B of becoming third front PM.

    That is exactly what I am saying. And when I say that simple fact, Modi fans vehemently protests and start abusing me, then finally come to the conclusion that there is a chance Modi NOT becoming Prime Minister, and in that case, Jaya wants to become the Prime Minister.

    Sardarjee was on a honeymoon trip.While his taxi driver was driving , the petrol tank ran empty and the car came to an abrupt halt. After trying for some time, driver politely requested Sardarjee: “Saab… there is no other way, can you kindly get down and push the car from behind, please?” Sardarjee, felt humilated as taxi driver asked in presence of his nayi patni…

    He became furious and started abusing the driver: “Baddi.. mag** , ku**e ka bac**a, Mungeri Lal, Joker, False Prophet, Shameless fool, Simpleton, Lier, Bakri **, How dare you asked me to push the car? And you idiot decided to sit inside the car? Suv*** ba**”

    Then Sardarjee declared: “Now I will dictate what you should do. You sit inside the car, I will push it from behind !!”

    Our long time friend says: “Jayalalitha wont become Prime minister, stupid ! But, in case BJP cant come to power, Jayalalitha has a B plan to become Prime Minister.”

    ——-

    Well, I am not here to predict who will become the Prime Minister or not. The fact remains, BJP got just 18% votes last time. It may increase it. No doubt. BJP ruled India earlier too. If it comes to power once again, so be it…

    But I have never seen such crude political tactics to become Prime Minister.

    I have posted the links earlier to show that in Muzzaffar Nagar, Muslims were raped. It is the medical report.

    And who raped Muslims according to BJP fans? “They themselves stood in the wind, in an empty place… Invisible, super natural elements were flying in the air . They got them raped by nobody.”
    —–
    I can only see the reality ahead and comment. Most experts predict a hung parliament. And I endorse that view. Some of us can argue, this leader or that leader can win the support of other parties… Well, they are only prognoses. Let us wait and see.

    Let me agree that BJP can get absolute majority, if that is what BJP fans want me to do…. But it is a great tragedy that, we fail to denounce the rape of innocent Muslim villagers? I am also a Hindu. But I never knew people can become hopelessly heartless and inhuman… I am sorry.

    How much time it would take for the BJP fans here to type two lines and condemn the Hindutva Rapists in Muzzaffer Nagar? Let me ask a simple question. If you dont condemn the rapists, are you not indirectly admitting that “Rape is an important strategy of political campaign”?

    It was Vir Savarkar who coined the word Hindutva. (Which is different from Hinduism. Hindutva = Political Hinduism. It is the same Vir Savarkar, who first discussed about using Rapes as political weapon.

  51. Vinay Says:

    Shemej:

    With your latest post you have proved that you are a hypocrite and a big liar. You have written one page of text again, but have not answered the question I asked. If you cannot answer the question, you could at least admit that you don’t know the answer, and I would have educated you.

    The problem with people like you is that you put all the blame for communal riots and rapes on “Hindutva elements” and speak as though “RSS and BJP people are going and instigating riots and raping people”.

    This shows your intellectual level. Clearly, you have no idea how riots happen in India. One needs two hands to clap. Muslim mobs are as responsible as Hindu mobs, and they indulge in equal amount of rape and destruction and killing. It appears that Muslims got the worse deal in the end by absolute numbers, but in proportion to their population, that is certainly not the case. In every riot, Hindus are killed and raped in greater numbers than Muslims, when you take the population percentages into account.

    People like you, who paint Muslims as innocent lambs who are forever victimized by the evil Hindus, are the real problem in India. That is why I said that people like you are the ones who are indirectly responsible for communal riots, with your head-in-the-sand lying and hypocrisy.

    That is why I asked you a simple question: forget faraway Muzaffarnagar, which you have never even visited in your life. Tell me what happened in the Bangalore riots of 2007. Let us see what your take is, on those riots. I want to see if someone who types pages and pages of text, has even an iota of idea about the dynamics of violence and society, or if he just pushes his pet “hate Hindutva” agenda.

  52. Shemej Says:

    I just have randomly gone through the Churumuri pages to find out how many times Vinay had used these different foul words in the past.
    This is what I got. Remember, this is only a partial list.

    After reading all these comments, I realized that most of the online authors whom Narendra Modi fans keep abusing are respected authors who have very good analytical skills.

    Now I feel proud to be a Communist. (Note: I am not supporting two main official communist parties and Naxalites), and I am proud I have been consistently opposing Modi’s politics of hatred. At the same time, let me clarify that most of the respected people who are at the receiving end of these abuses are, it appears, are not communists. However, I value their opinions, even if they disagree my views.

    Well, I dont have any ill feeling against our good friend Vinay either. Do I feel sympathy for him? May be. But I am not sure. But definitely I dont dislike him (or any of our Modi fans in Churumuri, for that matter.)

    I request other readers to go through the above comments copied from other pages of Churumuri and to reach their own conclusions.

    Kindly read below:
    (Notes within brackets are added by Shemej for clarity)
    —————
    Does Mukesh Ambani run India?
    You are a bigger threat to the state than Ambanis or any politicians. (To Sri. Praveen Kodabagi)

    “poooor people are getting more poooor” is a bloody lie.

    Only a shameless liar will reject this fact (that India was helped by Ambani and corporates )

    As long as you are not a poisonous socialist, you are not a threat

    —————
    If a Kannada literary don can warn of repairee…
    Vinay: he is a liar and a hypocrite (some auto driver )
    —————
    Most opaque politicians in the democratic world
    If you don’t want to be considered as a blatant hypocrite

    —————
    Why Ram Pyari couldn’t take her daughter home
    Vinay: where would you want them to work, you hypocrite? (To one Mr. Murthy)

    —————
    An English game consciously murdered by Indians?
    Vinay: It does look like you’re the asshole here (to on author with handle Sisya)

    —————
    Living together is no offence, it’s a right to life
    Vinay: The real insult to taxpayers’ money has come from those holier-than-thou assholes who filed suits
    —————
    CHURUMURI POLL: Is Mani Aiyar ‘anti-national’?
    Vinay: but he’s an asshole to “hope” for the CWG to be “unsuccessful”. (Manishankar Iyer)
    —————
    Should a chief minister fall at a godman’s feet?
    Vinay: Like I said in the other post, thats a question of perception, asshole.
    —————
    Why Ram Pyari couldn’t take her daughter home
    Vinay: Mani Shankar Aiyar is an asshole – seriously

    —————
    Living together is no offence, it’s a right to life
    Vinay: I see where you’re coming from. No dumbass, we should NOT be (to one author with handle Piats)

    Vinay: How old are you dumbass? Or are you mentally retarded by any chance?

    —————
    40% Infoscions’ parents haven’t passed Class X
    Vinay: People who take pleasure in slamming Infy are dumbasses
    —————
    Most opaque politicians in the democratic world
    Vinay: Only a dumbass will call it
    Vinay: I repeat: Only a dishonest dumbass will not give credit to NDA
    —————
    Rotten apples in the name of the good lord
    Vinay: Anonymous Guy: you are a confused dumbass.
    —————
    CHURUMURI POLL: Girls drinking beer not Hindu?
    Vinay: Asoka, you are one big dumbass.
    —————

    Well, in 2007, there were two instances of communal riots in Bangalore, both of them are connected to each other some way. The first one was instigated by Muslim fanatics and the second one was organized by RSS-BJP. In both cases ordinary Hindus and Muslims didnt participate, but were mere victims. In the first instance, a group of people (who were organized under a Muslim Identity based political group) were responsible for communal riots. That was purely a political violence. Ordinary Muslims didnt participate. All were goons who did violence in a pre-planned way.

    In the second instance, RSS workers under the banner Virat Hindu, some Militant Hindutva Political front organized violence. No ordinary Hindu participated. Many innocent people became victims.

    According to police, the first violence statred as there were provocative posters pasted by this Virat Hindu -RSS group, to instigate communal passion and the some of those who assembled for Muslim Political Gathering tore down these posters and violence was started.

    According to various reports, this was part of RSS strategy, to put pressure on the coalition partner (BJP was ruling along with Janata Dal (S) and to get political mileage.

    Any one can see they both were organized political meetings AND NOT RELIGIOUS MEETING.

    NO HINDU OR NO MUSLIM PARTICIPATED. Only Militant-Political Hindutva members and Militant Political Islamist groups participated.

    Hindu is not same as Hindutva, which is political Hindu. Political Islam is not Islam.

    I had asked in Churumuri pages itself, in the past to ban all organizations including RSS, Bhajrang Dal, Jamaat E Islami, Popular Front, SDPI, BJP, VHP, SIMI etc if the ban is going to be viable. At least their leaders should be given life imprisonment if the ban can not be imposed effectively.

    There are any number of studies about Communal Riots in India. Any one can go through the Inquiry commission reports. If there is one organization which planned, fiananced and organized most of these Communal Riots, it is Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.

    How can majority of the Inquiry commission reports from 1947 to this date which were headed by respected judges and other people belonging to Hindu community, who lived at different period of times, can come to the same conclusion that, most of these riots are organized by Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh?

    The greatest Hindu ever lived in the 20th century is undboutedly Mahatma Gandhi. (he may have so many negatives– but no one doubts if he was a Hindu or not. In fact, Mahatma is the first person who started mixing religion with politics – in that sense he used communal politics– But NOT THE RABID COMMUNAL politics that RSS and BJP champion now.

    In the words of another great Indian, Sardar Vallabhai Patel, Mahatma Gandhi was murdered by Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.

    In a letter sent to RSS head Guruji Golwalkar, by great Vallabhai Patel, he blames RSS saying, RSS distributed sweets to celebrate the assassination of Mahatma.

    These people have only one thiing in their brain. They kill, spit hatred, express violence even in writing.

    Remember, Vallabhai Patel was sympathetic to RSS earlier, he actually wanted RSS to join mainstream. But he banned RSS because it assassinated the Head of Our Nation, Mohan Das Karamchand Gandhi.

    In a country, when these evil forces kill every Hindu who advocate harmonious relationship between Hindus and Muslims, no wonder, they will kill Muslims to satisfy their thrist for blood.

    Kindly read my earlier posts about RSS at the thread – http://churumuri.wordpress.com/2013/08/21/raksha-bandhan-in-the-hindu-saffron-brotherhood/

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