Harsha Bhogle in The Indian Express:

“Intentionally or otherwise, Vijay Mallya has unleashed a wonderful, but hitherto unknown, word into Indian cricket. We have always plodded along in Indian cricket and accountability was this word from another language that occasionally filtered through our barriers. We knew it existed, as we did at various times achtung and détente and glasnost or even shiraz and tom yum.”

Meanwhile excerpts from Vijay Mallya’s diary:

“Another loss. Got piss drunk. Broke some bottles of competitors’ booze and had a few swigs of RC. Blanked out. I hate cheap whiskey. Awoke to Rahul’s sms. Says he’s not going to play the game anymore. What a relief. Finally, I can replace that white elephant…. More bad news, I looked at Rahul’s sms again. He said he’s not going to play the blame game anymore. I hate cheap whiskey.”

Read the full diary: Excerpts from Vijay Mallya’s diary

Photograph: Mangalorean.com

Every terror attack, every serial blast, every suicide bombing—be it in Bali or Bombay; Manhattan, Malegaon or Madrid, London or Lumbini Park—elicits a pat, pavlovian response from non-Muslims. “Why don’t ‘moderate Muslims’ speak out against such atrocities?” “Why don’t ‘moderate Muslims’ condemn what is being done in the name of their religion?”

In one shot, an entire community is repeatedly and publicly placed in a petridish for its credentials to be inspected and initialled, unmindful of the fact that a vast majority are as innocent and as blameless as any other. Before long, the pseudo-patriots jump in, stereotyping and tar-brushing those who do not meet their requirements and laugh all the way to the votebank.

But how many non-Muslims bother to notice when “moderate Muslims” do actually speak up, speak out, and speak against what’s happening in no uncertain terms?

***

By K. JAVEED NAYEEM

The recent serial bomb blasts in Jaipur that have claimed almost a hundred innocent lives and left more than thrice this number badly maimed and scarred, both physically and emotionally, need to be condemned as an unpardonable crime against humanity, irrespective of the motives behind them.

Although the exact identity of the perpetrators has not yet been established, going by the speculations that are being floated quite liberally it is very likely that these blasts, too, like many in the past, will eventually be linked to some frustrated Muslim groups.

As a Muslim let me admit that while every Muslim is certainly not a terrorist, sadly most terrorists today turn out to be Muslims.

Although Islam, without any attempt by Muslims to propagate it, is the world’s fastest growing religion, it is still much misunderstood on many issues. Unfortunately, it is in relation to the issue of terrorism that it is most misunderstood today as many people wrongly think that it is a religion that not only just tolerates but also encourages terrorism.

This view, although very wrong, does have some reasons for its origin.

It is true that largely due to the pressure of very peculiar and adverse circumstances, radical Islamic groups have emerged of late, which have been resorting to terrorist strikes now and then to draw world attention to their causes which have been long neglected by the rest of the world.

Due to the means these groups have chosen to address their problems and draw global attention to them Islam continues to be much misinterpreted and much misunderstood as a religion of war and fanaticism.

Today Islam evokes on one hand, visions of mystical poetry, great architectural beauty and orderly masses of humanity turning five times a day towards the Holy Kaaba and praying with the discipline of a military parade. On the other hand, it also evokes images of unruly mobs on the streets confronting bullets and battle tanks with stones and bricks.

Until very recently it evoked images of young men hijacking planes and attacking embassies and consulates. But today it consistently evokes images of human bombs that blow themselves up with visions of instant spiritual salvation, without the least regard for pleasure or pain.

If we examine closely the pathogenesis of terrorism it is not hard to find that every act of terror is traceable to a sense of injustice and inequality.

The unfair handling of the Palestine problem and the continuing disregard to the basic rights of the Palestinians and the unnatural appeasement of the Jews by the western superpowers is perhaps the single most important factor in history that spawned the monster of terrorism in the modern world. Yet this does not mean that the Palestinians and their supporters are justified in the means they have adopted to achieve their goals.

While it was Palestine that introduced terrorism to the rest of the world, it certainly was Kashmir that did it for us here in India. Most Kashmiri Muslims and others sympathetic to their cause, notably Pakistan, view India as an occupation force that has no justification to hold on to the state that we wish to retain as the crown of our country.

Many Indians too, including surprisingly non-Muslims like Lokanayak Jayaprakash Narayan and Arundhati Roy, have expressed similar sentiments on more than one occasion.

One state’s freedom fighter and martyr is another state’s traitor or terrorist, depending on which side of the fence you stand and therefore the use of violence by the state is as much and in fact a more heinous crime than the use of violence by aggrieved individuals under repressive regimes.

Similarly, the encouragement of many despotic rulers by the terrorism-sensitive superpowers and their non-interference in freeing the meek and the weak from their clutches smacks of gross double standards. Islam condemns this and although it allows the use of legitimate fore to protect ourselves from oppression, terrorism that targets the helpless and the innocent, is an act that can never be condoned, whatever may be the sense of frustration or justification in the minds of the perpetrators. Not even the plea that there was simply no other way will hold.

Due to its effectiveness, terrorism has today no doubt become the attention-drawing scream of all wronged people whose voices have been long suppressed by the so-called civilized nations. But let the Muslims and the non-Muslims alike understand that terrorism has no sanction in Islam whatsoever and therefore it can never become our weapon or even our means to draw attention to our problems or to achieve our goals.

Contrary to popular opinion, Islam is a religion that has at its core the concept of universal love, goodwill towards fellow human beings and tolerance towards other religions and faiths. Unlike the often over-painted picture of forcible conversions to its fold, history is replete with examples of incidents where people from the time of the prophet to the present day have turned to Islam voluntarily, touched by the fine ideals it has preached or by the exemplary character and conduct of its prophet.

While it may be necessary for Muslims by their behaviour and conduct to let these values become known to non-Muslims, it has become more essential to remind ourselves about how these should be the guiding principles in our own lives and in our interaction with the rest of the world.

Today, any exercise that helps to increase understanding between Islam and the world at large, with a view to easing the tensions that exist between the two, is not only worthwhile but also most essential.

Ongoing terrorism has now placed the greatest burden of doing two of the toughest possible things on the shoulders of educated mainstream Muslims. One, of letting the world know that Muslims too are guided by all the good that is enshrined in their religion and more importantly, of also letting the radicals among them know that any violent means to address our problems and frustrations have no place in a civilized world.

It is said that enlightened minds are the ones that have the vision to see beyond the unseen. I am glad that here in our city, Mysore, the Central Muslim Welfare Council which thankfully represents the voice of at least twenty broad-minded and progressive Muslim organisations has condemned this most recent act of terror.

I wish all Muslims, individually and collectively adopt and support this stand. This condemnation is what is most essential to at least initiate if not to effect a change in the attitude of indifference on the part of Muslims to what is happening in the world around them.

(K. Javeed Nayeem, MD, is a practising physician who writes a fortnightly column for Star of Mysore, where a shorter version of this piece originally appeared)

Also read: Where has our compassion and tolerance gone?

Good news about Muslims makes bad news?

Firoz Bhakt Ahmed: ‘Muslims must come out against terrorism’

From television studios in Delhi to advertising agencies in Bombay—and the drawing rooms of Bangalore—unanimous conclusions are being reached over caviar and foie gras that Haradanahalli Doddegowda Deve Gowda is the kaddi in the Karnataka kabab. But can the former prime minister be written off so easily, exit poll or no exit poll?

Photograph: via V.R. Chandar

An exit poll of the second phase of the elections held today conducted by NDTV says the BJP will get betweeen 32-42 seats, Congress 15-20, JDS 8-12. If the trend continues, Prannoy Roy says the BJP may be able to form the government on its own. The fieldwork for this poll was done by IMRB in 22 constituencies with a sample size of 9,447.

However, another exit poll conducted for Suvarna News, New Indian Express and Kannada Prabha, says BJP will walk away with 35 of the 66 seats which went to the polls, followed by Congress with 20, JDS with 8 seats, others 3. The exit poll was conducted by C-Fore in 50 constituencies and the sample size was around 7,000. By its reckoning, it’s going to be neck and neck between Congress and BJP.

The C-Fore poll says:

# In Hyderabad-Karnataka, of the 13 seats, the BJP will get 7 seats, Congress 3, JDS 2, others 1.

# In central Karnataka, of the 32 seats, BJP will get 14 seats, Congress will get 10, JDS 6, others 2.

# In coastal Karnataka, of the 21 seats, BJP will get 14 seats, Congress 7.

An NDTV exit poll of the 89 seats in the first phase of elections had predicted BJP will get 31 seats, JDS 30, and Congress 23. Together with the second exit poll, the BJP will end up with 63-73 seats, Congress 38-43 seats, and JDS  38-42 seats. Which means, of the 69 seats that go to the polls in the third and final phase of polling, the BJP will have to bag a minimum of 41-51 seats to form a  government on its own.

A C-Fore exit poll of the 89 seats in the first phase had predicted 39-42 seats for the Congress, 24-27 for the BJP, 20-23 for the JDS. Read together, the BJP will end up with 61 seats from the first two phases, Congress with 60, and JDS with 29. Which means, of the 69 seats that go to polls in the third and final phase of polling, the BJP will have to bag a minimum of 53 and the Congress with 54 each to form a government on their own.

The new Bangalore International Airport will open at the crack of 23 May 2008. That’s official.

And the existing HAL airport will close at the end of 22 May 2008. That’s official, too.

This, despite mounting public opinion to keep the old airport open. This, despite the High Court of Karnataka directing the Union of India, the Airports Authority of India, and Bangalore International Airport Limited (BIAL) to renegotiate the terms of the contract which barred airports in a 150-km radius of Devanahalli. And this, despite the Supreme Court of India endorsing the HC’s call for renegotiation.

What kind of a case was made by the “State” during the renegotiations is not known since there are reportedly no minutes of the two rounds of meetings. But the last-minute demands and Public Interest Litigations (PILs) to retain the HAL airport for short-haul flights have raised a variety of questions on those asking them, their motives, their logic, and their business ethics.

V. RAVICHANDAR, a former member of the Bangalore Agenda Task Force (BATF), responds to criticism on churumuri.com on the backpedalling on the closure of the old airport.

***

By V. RAVICHANDAR

First, a confession. Till November last year, I was for honouring the sanctity of the contract with Bangalore International Airport Limited (BIAL) and closing down the old HAL airport.

I have since revised my view and I shall present my case for being a “turncoat” shortly.

A disclaimer: asking for HAL airport to remain open does not mean one is anti-BIAL. BIAL is the future and is needed for the city. But HAL can co-exist with BIAL being compensated.

These are the reasons why the HAL airport should remain open even when the BIAL airport becomes functional (and none of them is about connectivity at all) :

# Future proofing is in the public interest: The capacity of BIAL is 12 million passengers. We are currently at 10.5 million passengers annually and we will reach current capacity by middle of 2009. With one runway the capacity can go to 14-15 million passengers, a number that will be reached by mid-2011. The new runway (if it does come up) will not be before 2014 (admitted by BIAL and the government). So expect shortage in capacity between 2011-14. I am not even referring to cargo which is reasonably messed up in the short term for the next year at BIAL.

# Hyderabad isn’t Bangalore: One argument being heard for the closure of HAL airport is that Hyderabad closed Begumpet airport, so what is the big fuss?

The situation in Hyderabad and Bangalore is not comparable. Hyderabad has a current demand of 6.5 million passengers and an airport with a capacity of 12 million passengers.

GMR has built the Hyderabad airport on a Memorandum of Understanding with the government of Andhra Pradesh; BIAL has built the Bangalore airport on a contract obtained after a global tender floated by the government of Karnatka.

# Keep working assets alive: For a rapidly growing economy like India’s, conserving working infrastructure assets makes sense (I do sound like Prakash Karat here). Closing down a working asset especially when it is known that we are going to run into a capacity constraint seems a silly thing to do.

And spending Rs 4,000 crore of public money on a high speed rail link from KSCA for a Rs 2,220 crore airport project is questionable when alternatives exist. And this spending for the fat cats is not going to go down well with aam aadmi.

# Infrastructure monopoly isn’t good: A private sector monopoly in the infrastructure sector is not in the public interest particularly in the absence of a strong regulator. As it is, in Hyderabad, two-wheelers are not allowed into the new airport and a passenger cannot take a private taxi not licensed by the Hyderabad airport. Do we want that situation here?

I think a duopoly will keep both parties honest in the interest of citizens. Two airports will strengthen State competitiveness, investments, job creation, etcetera.

# Tamil Nadu will steal Bangalore’s thunder: Closing HAL airport will be a self-goal. Expect Tamil Nadu to announce a Hosur airport in due course post final closure. And expect that to join Hogenakal as an issue sometime down the line.

Hosur may be within the 150 km radius of Devanahalli, but the compulsions of coalition politics can move mountains in our country. As it is, the Sitaram Yechuri panel has said the 150 km radius clause should be scrapped, and airport developers should accept realities of India, instead of expecting to be given a free run.

***

The contract with BIAL is not cast in stone.

For example, in a recent contract for Peru airport, 70-odd conditions were renegotiated.

The Public-Private Partnership (PPP) models are imperfect and they are being honed with each experience.

The global tender when it was first floated for BIAL did not have the closure of HAL airport as a promise. It was in 2004, just before the concession agreement was signed, that BIAL insisted on it. And the Ministry of Civil Aviation agreed.

***

I realize a suggestion such as keeping HAL airport open at this juncture has consequences. Let me deal with them:

# It is not my case that HAL be kept open and BIAL can take a walk. BIAL is in the driver’s seat with the contract. I am for users of HAL airport compensating BIAL on terms to be decided—the general public should not be made to pay for it.

I think market can decide the demand and adjust supply accordingly. For instance, the fare to Bombay from HAL airport can be Rs 5,500 and from BIAL to Bombay, it fare can be Rs 4,200. The difference is given to BIAL. This can be decided by auctioning slots too. BIAL could be made a shareholder in a HAL airport Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV).

# A point that is made is that renegotiating the terms of the contract with BIAL will hurt PPP. I don’t think so. Business will come where money is to be made and India is gold rush territory. It will suffer if there is arbitrariness in the decision to keep HAL open. If there is compensation to BIAL, then rule of law applies.

# BIAL claims they will make huge losses and folks have bid at the airport expecting a monopoly. A public hearing on finances should help get a sense of the “loss”. In their original projections, they expected less than 7 million passengers this year. If it is proven BIAL will be financially devastated, then HAL airport should not be kept open.

Finally, I repeat it is not about connectivity and travel time to BIAL which will be a hassle in the short term. It is about a few other issues I have tabled. You may or may not agree.

I rest my case.

(V. Ravichandar is chairman and managing director, Feedback Consulting, a research based consulting firm)

Photograph: Monica Mascarenhas Prabhu / BIAL Communications

Also read: PPP is where public is a puppy of the private

5 + 1 questions for M/s Ramanathan, Misra & Co

In the 66 constituencies going to the polls today in the second phase of elections to the Karnataka legislative assembly, there are just 14 women candidates; 49 candidates with a criminal record; and 372 candidates whose assets in all exceed Rs 902 crore, according to a report prepared by the Karnataka Election Watch committee of the Association of Democratic Reforms (ADR).

Among the major parties, the BJP has 13 candidates with a criminal record, the Congress 9, JDS 8, BSP 7, and other parties 12. There are 6 candidates who are charged with murder or attempt to murder.

There are 14 women candidates. The BSP has 4, BJP 2, Congress 2, JDS 2, JDU 2 and others 2. In the first phase there were a total of 17 women candidates from the major parties for the 89 constituencies. The total percentage of women is less than 5% as in the first phase.

The total assets declared by all the 372 candidates considered by KEW for phase 2 was an impressive Rs 902 crore, with average candidate assets of Rs 2.42 crore. The Congress led the parties with total declared candidate assets of Rs 470 crore and average candidate assets of Rs 7.35 crore. The BJP candidates had total assets of Rs 249.8 crores and average of Rs.3.78 crore; JDS Rs 77.9 crore and Rs.1.28 crore; BSP Rs 40.6 crore and Rs.0.64 crore.

The three major parties account for 88.5% of total candidate assets with average candidate assets of Rs.4.18 crores. Clearly, elections have become a rich man’s game. There are 5 candidates who have declared “Very High” assets of over Rs 30 crore. Of these, 3 are from the Congress, 2 are from the BJP. Compared to phase 1 which included Bangalore, the number has come down from 14 to 5.

# Anil Lad of the Congress is the richest among the candidates in the fray with declared assets of Rs 172 crore, jumping 2,343 per cent since 2004.

# R.V. Deshpande of the Congress, whose assets since 2004 have jumped 2,091 per cent, has declared assets of Rs 116.29 crore.

# The assets of G.S. Manjunath, the BJP candidate from Chitradurga, have shot up by an eye-popping 2,125 per cent since the 2004 elections.

# The BJP candidate from Holalkere, M. Chandrappa, has seen his assets grow by 2,107 per cent. The assets of his Congress rival H. Anjaneya (in picture) have grown by—hold your breath—81,465 per cent, according to KEW.

Then there are 17 candidates who have “High Assets” between Rs 5 crore and Rs 30 crore. In spite of having such high assets, some of them have not declared their IT PAN numbers as required by the Election Commission.

As many as 74 candidates reported a very steep increase in total assets between the 2004 Assembly Elections and this election. The average increase in assets was a huge 465.6%.

There are 49 candidates with a criminal record. Among the major parties, the BJP has 13 candidates having a criminal record, BSP has 7, the Congress 9, JDS 8, and other parties 12. There are 6 candidates who are charged with murder or attempt to murder.

Of the 372 candidates considered in phase 2, 31 had post-graduate degrees, 26 had technical degrees (like BE, etc), 6 MBBS, 47 LLB, 97 graduates, 48 PUC, 49 matriculates, 35 non-matriculates. The rest did not mention their educational qualifications. The number of candidates who were 60 years old or more was 41, between 45 and 60 was 171, and less than 45 was 160.

KEW’s conclusion: The overall quality of candidates leaves much to be desired. The criminal records in particular are a little alarming. Unless this trend is checked, elections, democracy and overall governance will suffer. A lot of candidates are industrialists from the real estate, liquor, mining and other businesses. Unless business interests are aligned to citizen interests this raises interesting questions about governance and democracy. The average assets of candidates from the major parties was Rs.4.18 crores which means that the parties have turned their back on candidates with low assets. A lot of candidates have reported huge increase in their assets. This also needs to be investigated so that public trust is restored.

(Karnataka Election Watch (KEW) is part of a nationwide movement to improve democracy. It is a citizen-led non-political, non-partisan effort. This time several NGOs activists and civil society organizations in Karnataka are participating in this effort.)

Photograph: Karnataka Photo News

Swapan Dasgupta writes in The Telegraph, Calcutta, that by taking its cue from IT honchos and by directing its ads at “non-voting classes”, the Congress in Karnataka appears to have lost sight of the fact that while IT is economically important, it is electorally a big zero:

“For the Congress the stakes are very high. A win in Karnataka will rejuvenate a tired Manmohan Singh government in Delhi. It is calculated to galvanize Congress activists in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi which vote in December. There is even a suggestion that a good Karnataka result could resuscitate the Indo-US nuclear deal and trigger an early general election.

“For the BJP, Karnataka is an important test of its national credentials. It has sought to blend anti-incumbency against the Centre with an indictment of 50 years of Congress rule in Karnataka…. If the BJP performs well in Karnataka and forms a government, it will reinforce the importance of strong regional leaders in the party. As the epicentre of contrariness, Karnataka may contribute immeasurably to the transformation of the BJP from being a Delhi-controlled party to a more federal outfit.”

Read the full article: The contrary state

Also read: Who are the IT guys backing in poll?

And don’t forget the fact that it’s a Saturday

R. KANNAN and S.S. KARNADSHA write: Voters in 66 constituencies in 10 districts go to the polls tomorrow in the second phase of the elections to the Karnataka Assembly. And churumuri.com is pleased to offer its second, amateur, grassroots survey of how it is likely to turn out for the parties.

Our short term reading: BJP 31, Congress, 26, JDS 9.

Our medium term prediction: It’s going to be a hung assembly.

Like in the first churumuri.com survey (see full methodology below), we travelled to at least one constituency in six of the 10 districts going to the polls tomorrow. For the other districts, we relied on a variety of sources over the telephone, and also took into account media reports.

Unlike other opinion polls and pre-poll surveys, which only give a random seat count, we pinpoint the likely winners in each of the 66 constituencies.

Among our key findings are:

# It is going to be 50-50 for the Congress and the BJP in the communally hot coastal districts despite Narendra Modi’s campaign, and a CNN-IBN-CSDS-Deccan Herald finding.

# B.S. Yediyurappa looks more likely to overcome S. Bangarappa in the battle of former chief ministers in Shikaripura despite Congress and JDS not putting up candidates.

# M.P. Prakash the former deputy chief minister, who hopped over to the Congress from JDS is likely to be trounced in Harapanahalli.

# Mine baron Anil Lad is unlikely to break the stranglehold of the Reddy brothers in Bellary city despite his jump to the Congress and Diwakar Babu’s return to the party.

# M.P. Renukacharya is set to return to the assembly from Honnali despite the scandal surrounding his involvement in the nurse Jayalakshmi.

By our reckoning, after the first two phases of polling, the Congress will end up with 67 seats, the BJP with 52, and JDS 30. The half-way mark in the 224-member Karnataka assembly is 114. Which means of the remaining 69 seats in the third and final phase of polling, the Congress will have to bag 47 and the BJP 62 to form a government on their own.

Which also means JDS, which has 30 seats from the first two phases by our count, will again play a very key role in the formation of the next government, as predicted by H.D. Deve Gowda. Either one of the two big parties will have to swallow its pride and tie up with it again, or there will have to be defections en masse from the JDS ranks.

Only Suvarna News (through C-Fore) has conducted an exit poll of the first phase and a pre-poll survey of the second phase. By C-Fore’s reckoning, Congress will end up with between 59-67 seats, BJP 60-66, and JDS 25-31 at the end of the two phases of polling. By that count, Congress have have to bag 47 of the remaining 69, and BJP 44.

Statistically, anything is possible, but how likely?

***

CHITRADURGA: Congress 4, JDS 2

Chitradurga: Congress, G.H. Tippa Reddy
Hosadurga: Congress, B.G. Govindappa
Hiriyur: JDS, D. Yashodhara
Challakere (ST): Congress, Sashikumar
Molkalmuru (ST): JDS, G.M. Tippeswamy
Holalkere (SC): Congress, H Anjaneya

***

BELLARY: Congress 3, BJP 6

Bellary (ST): BJP, B Sriramulu
Hadagali (SC): Congress, P.T. Parameshwara Naik
Hagaribommanahalli (SC): BJP, Nemiraj Naik
Vijayanagar: Congress, H.R. Gaviappa
Sandur (ST): Congress, E. Tukaram
Siraguppa (ST): BJP, M.S. Somalingappa
Bellary city: BJP, G. Somashekara Reddy
Kampli (ST): BJP, T.H. Suresh Babu
Kudligi (ST): BJP, B. Nagendra

***

DAVANAGERE: Congress 3, BJP 5

Jagalur (ST): BJP, H.P. Rajesh
Harapanahalli: BJP, G. Karunakara Reddy
Honnali: BJP, M.P. Renukacharya
Davangere North: BJP, H.A. Ravindranath
Davangere South: Congress, Shamanur Shivashankarappa
Mayakonda (SC): BJP, Basava Raja Naik
Harihar: Congress, Dr. Y. Nagappa
Chennagiri: Congress, Vadnal Rajanna

***

SHIMOGA: Congress 3, BJP 3, JD(S) 1

Shimoga rural (SC): Congress, Kariyanna
Shimoga: BJP, K.S. Eswarappa
Bhadravathi: JDS, Appaji M.J.
Soraba: Congress, Kumar Bangarappa
Tirthahalli: BJP , Araga Gnanedra
Shikaripura : BJP, B.S. Yediyurappa
Sagar: Congress, Kagodu Thimmappa

***

CHIKMAGALUR: BJP 4, JDS 1

Sringeri: BJP, D.N. Jeevaraj
Moodigere (SC): BJP, M.P. Kumaraswamy
Chikmagalur : BJP , C.T. Ravi
Tarikere: JDS, H. Omkarappa
Kadur: BJP, Dr. Vishwanath

***

UTTARA KANNADA: Congress 3; BJP 3

Haliyal: Congress, R.V. Deshpande
Kumta: BJP, Sashibhooshan Hegde
Karwar: Congress, Anand Asnotikar
Bhatkal: Congress, J.D. Naik
Sirsi: BJP, Vishweshwara Hegde
Yellapur: BJP, Veerabhadra Gowda Patil

***

DAKSHINA KANNADA: BJP 4, Congress 3, JDS 1

Belthangady: Congress, Vasanth Bangera
Moodabidiri : JDS, K. Amaranatha Shetty
Mangalore City North: BJP , Krishna Palemar
Mangalore City South: BJP, N. Yogeesh Bhat
Mangalore: Congress, U.T. Khader
Bantwal: BJP, Nagaraja Shetty
Puttur: Congress, Bondala Jaganatha Shetty
Sullia (SC): BJP , S. Angara

***

UDUPI: Congress 2, BJP 3

Baindur: BJP, K. Lakshminarayana
Kundapura: Congress, K. Jayaprakash Hegde
Udupi: BJP, Raghupathi Bhat
Kapu: Congress, Vasanth Saliyan
Karkala: BJP, V. Sunil Kumar

***

RAICHUR: Congress 3, BJP 1, JDS 3

Raichur rural (ST): JDS, Raja Rangappa Naik
Raichur: BJP, A. Papa Reddy
Manvi: Congress (ST), G. Hampaiah
Devdurga (ST): JDS, Shivana Gowda
Maski (ST): Congress, Timappa
Lingasagur (SC): JDS, T.L. Naik
Sindhanur: Congress, Hampanagouda Badarli

***

KOPPAL: Congress 2, BJP 2, JDS 1

Kushtagi: Congress, Amaregouda Byappur
Gangavati: JDS, Iqbal Ansari
Yelaburga: Congress, Basavaraj Rayareddy
Kanakagiri (SC): BJP, Shamanna Hulagappa Narinala
Koppal: BJP, Andanappa Agadi

***

METHODOLOGY: How did we crunch these numbers?

1. We went to at least one constituency in six of the 10 districts.

2. We studied the voting pattern of each constituency since 1978 using Election Commission data.

3. In the case of constituencies that have been newly created or spiked due to delimitation of seats, we have examined the chunks that have moved or have been clubbed together.

4. We have looked at each contesting candidate and have drawn a winnability graph keeping local factors in mind. Aspects like personal charisma, nurturing constituency with development projects, and also party-hopping have been factored in.

5. We have cross-checked our lists with strategists of all major political parties. We have discounted their claims when they have been bombastic and accommodated them when they have been realistic.

6. We have studied the percentage of votes polled by each party and the victory margins of all seats in the 2004 election. We have given the benefit of doubt to the runner up in 2004 elections if he has lost by a thin margin and is contesting again. In some cases it is the runner up political party that gets this advantage although they have changed the candidate.

7. Due to the strict EC poll code we have given very little chance to new faces and parties entering a constituency for the first time. We believe that the process of new faces or new parties getting registered in the minds of voters has not happened.

8. We have checked the BSP factor by looking at their presence and performance in all constituencies in the 2004 elections.

9. Although there is a close contest in some constituencies we stick our head out and give only name per constituency.

Also read: CHURUMURI POLL: Congress 41, BJP 21, JDS 21

E.P. Unny, the political cartoonist of The Indian Express, is on the campaign trail in Karnataka, drawing realtime sketches, and turning in insights in prose which itinerant political reporters and correspondents all seem to have decided is beneath them.

From a rally in Anavatti in Shimoga, where S. Bangarappa is campaigning for younger son Madhu Bangarappa against his elder son Kumar Bangarappa, Unny writes:

“Even as the Dad & Darling Son Show gets going, part of the gathering switches towards the helicopter. Evidently the flying machine is a lot more appealing than the bicycle, Bangarappa’s party symbol. Many in the crowd including the ones who turn chopper-wards are wearing a red cap with the bicycle graphic on it.

“One such cap is handed over to Bangarappa as he ascends the dais. He fidgets with it for a while, keeps it aside and sits down to comb his hair. Why should he conceal his fine crop of jet-black hair? Nearly as old as Deve Gowda, at 76, among the many things he has defied is age. Not that he should have any ideological qualms about the red cap itself.

“When the colour runs, it could turn into a lily white Congress cap.”

Read the full article: Battle of the brothers, father thrown in

MATHIHALLI MADAN MOHAN writes from Hubli: The Election Commission may be harbouring under the belief that it has been able to curb the flow of money in the current election through the strict implementation of the model code of conduct.

And the middle-classes may be thrilled to bits that election expenditure has been brought down considerably. But ask serious candidates in the fray and they will tell you that the situation is exact opposite.

Neither has money circulation come down nor is there any drop in the expenses.

In fact, the situation is otherwise.

Many of the candidates feel that election expenses are on the rise despite, possibly because of, the model code. Instead of the old system, where the candidates had accounts in select bars and hotels for meeting the expenses of hangers on, the latter now want their pound of flesh in cash.

“Give us the money and we make our own expenses,” is their new mantra, and the candidates are hardly in a position to say no.

In previous elections, especially pre-1994, “Kattala Raat” (the dark night)—the 48 hours from the end of campaigning to the beginning of polling—was the sunrise period as parties and politicians dangled a variety of blandishments to get voters to plump for them.

But after T.N. Seshan’s model of conduct came into force, the “Kattala Raat” dawns much earlier. The nefarious activities are no longer confined to the last 48 hours before the close of poll as it used to be earlier. “Now every day is a Kattala Raat, where the money has to flow” say the candidates.

During the visit of L.K. Advani, the question arose as to where the curbs placed by the EC had brought down the expenditure. “No, Sir, it has gone up instead” was the refrain of many a candidate who met the BJP leader.

This impression is also shared by the Congress, where in some places money power continues to be openly flaunted, curbs or no curbs by the Election Commission, and the candidates are getting away, much to the chagrin of others in the field.

***

Ravi Krishna Reddy, the NRI techie who stood as an independent candidate from the Jayanagar constituency in Bangalore, has meanwhile written to the Election Commission on the issue.

To:
Chief Electoral Officer
(Karnataka State)
DPAR (Elections), Old KGID Building Annexe
Dr. B.R. Ambedkar Veedhi
Bangalore – 560 001

Subject: Cruel Joke of Election Expenditure Limit and Distortion of Poll Symbol by Election Commission

Dear Sir,

I, Ravi Krishna Reddy, contested from Jayanagar constituency as an independent candidate to protest against immoral and unethical political practices, and the growing use of money power in Karnataka’s democracy.

My candidature was meant to show that there is place for an alternative model of electoral politics, which is legal, ethical and value based.

When there are innumerable examples of MLA candidates spending crores of rupees for just an assembly election, I was convinced that the only way to fight these illegal and unethical practices was by public participation and fighting the election with public funding.

I had raised Rs. 4,22,000 (approx) from the public, starting with Rs. 10 donated by a 70-year-old, poor woman of Ragigudda jhopadi, to 105 other Indian donors from across the world. To this, I added my own contribution of Rs. 23,000. In all, I spent Rs. 4,45,291 for the election.

Hope you, too, have noticed this as this information was made public as soon as the election was over.

My preamble is relevant because I am told by officials in the Jayanagar constituency‘s Returning Office that I am the only candidate who spent more than Rs 4 lakh in this constituency! According to them, all the other candidates have “shown“ their expenses to be less than 4 lakhs!

I ask in wonder: how is this possible?

Because, I have seen rallies taken out by political parties in this constituency, with hundreds of workers, on multiple occasions. On two occasions, I myself witnessed rallies at Jayanagar shopping complex in which the current MP waving at the public from the rooftop of a van. Hundreds of daily-wage workers, many four-wheelers, and innumerable motor bikes were all part of this procession.

I was also present in the same premises when a candidate was having lunch with hundreds of poor, daily-wage workers inside a big marriage hall. Special, colorful, expensive handbills and booklets were distributed by the candidates all across the constituency.

Isn’t it a cruel joke to say that even after all these expenses, none of the candidates have spent more than Rs 4 lakh?

Hasn’t the EC officials taken videos of these processions and noticed the publicity materials of the candidates and its worth?

After noticing all this, I strongly believe that the Election Commission has not fulfilled its duty responsibly and legally. Without keeping a tab on candidate‘s expenses, I believe EC has sent an open message to all the candidates across the country and that message is: “Spend as much as you want, but let your expense returns be within Rs 10 lakh. We do not verify any details. The ceiling of 10 lakhs is just on paper and is of no significance whatsoever.“

I am concerned that the EC is not taking any measures to enforce the expenditure limits and this legal limit is a farce. I have to say with deep regret that EC is not doing any justice to law-abiding citizens of India, who want to contest the elections, rightfully and legally.

At this moment, at least for the third phase of elections, I strongly urge you to deploy observers behind candidates and their workers to make sure that they won’t cross the expenditure ceiling, and thereby provide justice to the candidates who respect and abide by the law.

***

Along with this, I also would like to draw your attention towards the complaint that I have lodged with the RO of Jayanagar constituency. The EC allotted “Nagara” as my poll symbol. But, the symbol that was printed on the ballot box of EVM was something else. We spent almost Rs. 30,000 for street plays and the display of actual Nagaras.

We organized these street plays in the constituency where low-income, uneducated voters are in large numbers. (As a matter of fact, some of the Tamil speaking voters were constantly reminding us that ‘Nagara‘ is the symbol of one of Tamil Nadu’s political parties.) But, on the day of the election, the symbol that was on the ballot box next to my name was something other than the officially allotted ‘Nagara‘ symbol.

Some news reports quoted the RO as saying, “It is not a major blunder.”

I strongly protest against this kind of irresponsible statement. This was an error and the RO should have considered what the law says for such a situation, instead of opining whether it is a major or minor blunder.

So, hereby I request you to kindly let me know what measures you have taken. Otherwise, I may have to consider exploring my legal options. Before I take that extreme measure, I believe getting these details and being educated by you regarding my choices are within my rights.

The fact that I was the candidate who has spent the maximum amount of money in this constituency and this campaign was run by the hard-earned money of ordinary people compels me morally to demand answers and seek justice.

Sincerely

Ravi Krishna Reddy
Independent Candidate
Jayanagar Assembly Constituency
Karnataka

Also read: Is every election null and void even before the poll?

My dear IT brothers and sisters of Karnataka

In The Telegraph, Calcutta, Mukul Kesavan compares Twenty20’s threat to Test cricket with bhangra pop’s to classical music. Without serving a long apprenticeship to an ustad or a guru from a classical gharana, some young men may end up becoming Indian idols, but despair not, says Kesavan.

“The follower of Test cricket can learn something from the survival of classical music in a world dominated by film music in India and pop music abroad. The three-minute song might be king, but symphonies survive, ragas are revived, sangeet sammelans thrive, Madras hosts its annual sabhas and classical musicians remain regulars on the Republic Day honours’ lists. If classical music, its virtuosos and its audience have survived the constantly foretold Death of the Gharana, perhaps Test cricket will survive the rumoured demise of the first-class game.”

Read the full article: Fear and loathing

Also read: The beginning of the end of Test cricket is here

Drinking water is the main issue before the people of Karnataka, as evidenced by one of the opinion polls, and as this woman pedalling to fetch a few buckets in K.R. Puram in Bangalore will vouch. But how many parties, and how many politicians, and how many anchors and analysts, are talking of it as the airwaves are grabbed by  amorphous and abstract formulations in the election season?

Photograph: Karnataka Photo News

E.R. RAMACHANDRAN writes: I saw the Ace Political Expert (APE) at the entrance of the Press Club. Since APE is in great demand in the election season and hard to get, here is an opportunity not to be missed, I thought. He agreed to join me and we sat in a quiet corner.

I called the waiter to place our order.

“I will have Black Dog whisky with ice. No soda,” APE told the bearer. I was surprised. APE is normally a fish in a beer bowl. I ordered Vijay Mallya’s Kingfisher for myself; chicken tikka and salted peanuts as accompaniments completed the orchestra.

After couple of sips, I asked APE: “Who do you think will win this election?”

APE took a swig from the second glass of whisky, thought for a while and said, “It’s got to be Congress this time. Yuvraj, sorry Rahul, himself came and campaigned this time. If you add that to Rs 60,000 crore announced by Chidambaram and factor in Ambika Soni’s promise of classical status for Karnataka, it’s Congress all the way. No doubt about this.”

I was amazed at the power of his acumen—the power to see through and connect seemingly unrelated events.

The waiter sauntered along. Before I could bark “repeat”, APE ordered XXX rum, double. I asked for Kingfisher again, keeping in mind the losses incurred by Mallya through his Royal Challengers. I didn’t want him to sack the UB CEO after Charu Sharma.

Fish fingers and Raja’s special was what APE wanted along with the drinks.

“What about the BJP? How will they fare this time?” I asked.

APE lifted his glass, considered my question from all angles, chewed the fish stick with satisfaction and after a carefully measured small sip said: “Now that you ask me, yes, I would say. Advaniji’s biography, no matter what Murli Manohar Joshi thinks of it, that and the new found camaraderie between Ananth Kumar and Yediyurappa, makes them hot favourites. If you add the great injustice done to them by JDS, and a “mini-Modi wave” among the upper castes, I should think BJP will form a government all by themselves,” he banged the table emphatically.

This brought the attention of the waiter for the next order.

APE went to the toilet and I noticed he didn’t exactly walk in a straight line when he came back to his chair.

“I will have chilled white wine and Dutch cheese, if you have it. I don’t want any more hard liquor.”

His words were also like his walk and the little liquor league which APE had embarked on, looked like a cross between Mallya’s Royal Challengers and Deccan Chronicle’s Deccan Chargers. Only God knows what they were up to, how they would get along, and where they were going.

“Do you feel JDS has any chance at all,” I asked APE who was holding the wine glass in one hand and the chair next to him for support.

“Nobody in their shenses would ever ignore JD(eSh),” he slushed. “The phather-son combo is the bhest phor all thims. Their pujas and homas and 30 per shent reservation in IT, BT and bitty sectors might yet make them a dark horse. They may still make the government both here and at the Centre!”

By now it was clear the APE had lost all the marbles in his head. I grabbed a jug of water from the passing waiter poured it into his glass and asked him to drink that.

After he drank two glasses of water, he put the glass down. His eyes shone as he made a gesture with his hand.

“It’s all clear now. Nobody will get a majority. I think all the three parties will come together and form a regional government. It will be called the Government of United Farmers and IT. In other words, an UNFIT Government.”

With that APE collapsed on his chair. I carried him with the help of a bearer, put him in the back seat, and started the car.

The curbs of the Election Commission have killed the “election industry” of sign board painters, banner makers, illicit liquor brewers, etc. But it continues to be boom time for psephologists, astrologers, pollsters, experts and assorted analysts to peddle their wares.

When the first phase of polling ended at 5 pm on May 10, reporters and editors received a mass-mail from the delightfully appropriate “Creative Centre for Politics Studies” with its summer capital in Srinagar (Bangalore). An attched PDF file contained the findings of its “exit poll”.

“We, the COPS invigilators conducted exit poll survey in all 89 assembly constituencies of first phase of elections in Karnataka,” wrote co-ordinator M.C. Hemant Gowda (mobile phone number: 98805-94318). The exit poll gave 32 to the BJP, 30 to the Congress, 25 to the JDS.

Not very different from other opinion polls, you might say. Probably.

Polling ended at 5 pm.

The exit poll findings were mailed at 5.13 pm.

M.K. VIDYARANYA writes from Chikkodi (Belgaum district): Whether it likes to admit it or not, for all its posturing otherwise, the BJP has a fundamental disconnect with Muslims. Not only does it have a problem in attracting Muslim leaders, it has a problem in wooing Muslim voters.

Not here.

Here, the minorities seem to have no trouble in carrying the party flag. But it is not because they have developed a sudden infatuation for the saffron party, but because of the candidate, Ramesh Jigajinagi—a fivetime MLA and three time MP, who joined the BJP at the time of the 2004 general elections.

Says Jigajinagi, “I learnt the art of taking every one along from my mentor and political guru, Ramakrishna Hegde. When I became an MLA in 1983, Hegde taught me to take every one along and deal with problems and issues dispassionately without considering their caste or creed. It’s a dictum I follow to this day.”

The proof of the pudding is this pada yatra taken out yesterday, with Jigajinagi at the helm.

Photograph: M.K. VIDYARANYA