Posts Tagged ‘Exit Polls’

CHURUMURI POLL: How many seats for Modi?—II

19 December 2012

The exit polls for the Gujarat elections are all gung-ho, predicting between 118 seats on the down side and 140 plus on the upside for the BJP under Narendra Modi in the 2012 assembly election, and not surprisingly some media houses are already in celebration mode.

But the satta bazaar is less sure. According to a report in the Economic Times, bookies think that while Modi will retain power, he will not cross 100 seats in the 182-member assembly and will most certainly not overwhelm his 117 tally in the previous assembly election.

After the first round of polling, Gujarat’s most important Congressman is said to have told a Congress functionary “we are through”. And after the exit polls came in, a Union minister and a prominent Congress general secretary are both believed to have told a published journalist that there was no way Congress would get “less than 70″, meaning Modi could be looking at a tally of under 117.

On the other hand, India’s bestknown business journalist said after a tour of Gujarat last week that 140 was on the cards for the BJP. And a BJP functionary says that while talk of 90 is ridiculous, she is also wary of euphoric numbers of the sort the exit polls have been touting, like 140.

And so it goes on.

How much do you think Narendra Modi will score tomorrow?

Also read: How many seats for Narendra Modi?—I

How the exit polls got it wrong in 2004 and 2009

Every news channel is a winner in great poll race

 

How CNN-IBN got the Uttar Pradesh exit poll right

It’s their opinion that they have done an exit poll

17 May 2009

Exit polls are said to be more reliable than opinion polls in gauging the mood of the electorate since pollsters catch respondents immediately after they have cast their ballot.

But for the second successive time in five years, mainstream Indian media organisations have fallen flat on their faces in their “exit poll” projections, throwing a big question mark over the authenticity of their claims, the reliability of the pollster’s methods, and their use as a media device.

Obviously, the size of the country, the size of the electorate, the multiple parties and issues involved, etc, making prediction an immeasurably difficult task, but the consistency with which polls are getting it wrong throw a big question mark over the role the media is performing in our democracy: do they have their ear to the ground, catching the pulse of the people whose eyes and ears they are supposed to be.

Or have they become a megaphone for uninformed news, views and gossip, no different from a roadside tea shop.

***

In 2004, all the exit polls predicted a return to power for the NDA giving the ruling alliance a lead of 40-90 seats and more; in the end, the BJP-led alliance fell 32 seats below the predictions and was routed by the UPA.

In 2009, all the exit polls predicted a thin lead for the ruling UPA; some predictions sighted a single-digit margin between the two alliances. In the end, the Congress-led UPA ended up almost 100 seats ahead of the NDA.

***

2004 Elections

NDTV-Indian Express: NDA 230-250, Congress + allies 190-205,

Aaj Tak/ Headlines Today: NDA 248, Congress + allies 189

Zee News: NDA 249, Congress + allies 176

Star News: NDA 263-275, Congress + allies 174-186

Actual tally: NDA 187, Congress + allies 219

***

2009 Elections

NDTV: UPA 216, NDA 177, Third Front 15

Star News-AC Neilsen: UPA 199, NDA 196

CNN-IBN-CSDS: UPA 185-205, NDA 145-160

India TV-C Voter: UPA 189-201, NDA 183-195

Headlines Today: UPA 191, NDA 180

The Times of India: UPA 198, NDA 183

Actual tally: UPA 256, NDA 164

An exit poll that defies the Election Commission

13 May 2009

The exit polls of the elections for the 15th Lok Sabha will start rolling out this evening. But before NDTV, CNN-IBN and Star News can tell us how we voted, the “widely respected art house” Mindry is out with its own exit poll.

Tongue firmly in cheek, interviewer “Sagarika” calls up a BJP leader in Peru for his reactions.

Sagarika: You and your party have nothing to cheer about our poll? What is wrong?

Venkaiah Naidu: Nothing’s wrong. BJP is strong. This programme is getting too long.

Sagarika: Do you still think BJP will win this fight?

Venkaiah Naidu: BJP’s future is bright. We will win this fight. Congress will be out of sight. I’m sorry to see your plight. I’m going to take the next flight. I wish you good night.

View the entire video here: Opinion poll

Visit the blog: Mindry


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