It’s a free world. You can believe any number.

The ruling United Progressive Alliance is clearly ahead of the National Democratic Alliance, although neither alliance is united or national, and the Congress will emerge the single largest party in the 2009 general elections.

A pre-poll survey by AC Neilsen for Star News shows the Congress-led UPA almost 73 seats in front of the BJP-led NDA. Even if Laloo Prasad‘s RJD, Mulayam Singh‘s Samajwadi Party, and Ram Vilas Paswan‘s LJP desert the UPA, the alliance will end up with 210 seats, 24 more than the NDA.

A back-of-the-envelope calculation by editors of the Daily News & Analysis (DNA) newspaper (below) shows the Congress and its allies at 184, versus 177 for the BJP and its allies. Others account for 182.


Graphic: courtesy DNA

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5 Responses to “It’s a free world. You can believe any number.”

  1. Prashanth Says:

    Following States will throw surprise results..

    Gujarat – BJP may cross 20
    Jharkand – BJP may cross 9
    Karnataka – Congress will not corss 5-7, advantage BJP with 18 seats, gowda will be restricted to 1 or max 2
    DMK 24 in Tamilnadu is unbelieveable.. DMK may get no more than 8 seats..
    Delhi will change to 3 for congress 4 for bjp.

    One important thing all news channels/press is unawere of is number of urban seats has gone up significantly, almost 170 seats now, BJP always had urban voters, expecting BJP to win at least 1/2 of them and it manages to win another 90 other seats, BJP will emerge as largest party with not less than 180 seats. After delimitation, there is a lot of uncertainity with congress seats.

    Finally it may be a 1996 like situation, so called secular parties will join to form government to keep BJP out, 2011 Jan another set of polls for 16th loksabha BJP will win this election to form another coalition government..

    Any one has other openion please share..

  2. Hubbaliyava Says:

    DNA people are supporting only Congress or unpredictable UPA.

    just wait and see today the current is against congress. UPA allies them selves keeping away the congress.

    all these probabilities are only to bring confusion in the minds of urban voters or are they influencing urban to get out of the house and Vote???????????

    hopefully there intention is urban voters should come out of the house and Vote.

  3. Kingkhan Says:

    My prediction for Karnataka, if SMKrishna and the Cong bigwigs get their act together

    Cong -15-16
    BJP- 8-9

  4. Simple Says:


    In Gujrat BJP’s vote share and seats fell down in 2007 assembly elections compared to what they got in 2002 assembly polls.

    Clear indicator that BJP is on a downslide in Gujarat.

    People are fed up with more than 15 years of BJP misrule, and they want to change.

    BJP will come down in MP, Rajasthan, UP, Orissa.

    BJP will get zero in TN, AP, Kerala, WB, and 7 north eastern states

    The only bright spots for BJP are Assam, HImachal, Jharkand and Bihar, where they will increase their seats marginally.

    Karnataka, more or less, they will be stagnant, they will get what they got last time. around 18. but if JDS and Cong have a clandestine arrangement, thten even this tally will drop.

    All in all, BJP is expected to get less than 135 seats.

    Clear indicator, that in the past 12 years, BJP has been on a continous slide.

  5. B.N.Gururaj Says:

    The only certainty about psephology is that it is usually a cropper! Of course, nothing wrong with having fun with numbers, until the voter delivers them.

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