Why does the BJP persist with Operation Kamala?

MATHIHALLI MADAN MOHAN writes from Hubli: One puzzling aspect of the political scenario in Karnataka has been the ruling BJP’s penchant for poaching the members of the opposition.

One could understand their dilemma during the time of the formation of the government, or even the recent trust votes, when there was uncertainty over the numbers.

But why should it persist in this endeavour, when, for all practical purposes, the B.S. Yediyurappa government finds itself safely ensconced in power and when it could attract adverse comments, giving a handle to its detractors?

One can immediately point to the two pending petitions challenging the disqualification filed by the five independents and 11 BJP legislators separately and argue that the BJP probably wants be on guard to ensure that it is safe in case of any exigency. But a closer look at the ground realities reveals that the fears are misplaced.

As far as the first case pertaining to the independents is concerned,  it is true that the situation is a bit tricky, since the independents cannot be treated on a par with the party legislators technically in the matter of disqualification. In the event of the high court annulling the speaker’s action,  the BJP has hardly anything to worry; it has already fortified itself against such a possibility.

Let’s come to the second case filed by the 11 BJP legislators.  Here, too, the BJP’s anxiety over a possible adverse verdict appears to be misplaced.

What happens in that contingency is that the concerned legislators return to the fold of the parent party and do not under any circumstances swell the ranks of the opposition. And they hardly get any chance of acting openly against the government on the floor of the house, because of the Damocles’ sword of disqualification falling on them once again.

And the only option they have is to pursue their agenda for the change of the leadership within the party forum, where they have hardly any chance of success.

Having had the foretaste of what it means to be disqualified, they would be in chastened mood and would be averse to carry the game of political adventurism once again. They would be happier to retain the membership of the legislature rather than taking one more risky step again.

But once thing is sure. Their career in politics for all practical purpose is over for most of them.  In the BJP, they would surely find themselves in the dog house. Since most of them happen to be political novices, the non-BJP parties may not have much use of them later on, once their utility is over.

If the BJP has launched the second phase of the Operation Kamala, with a view to hoisting the opposition with its own petard, as it were, in a bid to avenge the predicament it suffered  as a consequence of the opposition’s action in weaning away a group of legislators, it is a different cup of tea.

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3 Responses to “Why does the BJP persist with Operation Kamala?”

  1. Tarlemaga Says:

    Nandan’s UID can be a solution to this money trial. Any money floating can be tracked through latest BIO-METRIC technology and Interpol notice can be provided.

    You dont have to conduct raids. All money will be identified through UID. Accountability of every penny will be decided by the ruling party and CBI.

    Of course IT department will have access to the wealth of information.

  2. Subash Says:

    Operation kamala

    I could not get the gist of the article.From whatever i got,I would like to put forward my points.

    BJP as a party is more likely to loose than gaining because,BJP has no good candidates from the constituencies where the rebel candidates stood.hence these seats are likely to go to either JDS or congress in next elections which could hurt BJP badly where every seat is going to be important.

    definate to loose

    Y sampangi – was a first time winner in KGF.This seat was generally fought between Bhaktavatsalam(JDS) and Rajendran(CPI).But addition of few more kannada/telugu villages to this constituency changed the nature and he won through small margin.Please note that he was able to garner only 23% and yet was able to win in this multi-faced competition seat. Very unlikely that he will get seat in BJP and likely so in Congress.Kumaraswamy will be thinking twice before he gives ticket to him since bhaktavatsalam is also in JDS.he has spoiled his image due to bribery case also.He is a almost certain to loose despite of party he stands for.What does this mean for BJP. BJP was quite lucky to get this seat last time and might loose this seat next time as sampangi is definatly going to hit BJP’s vote base than JDS or CPI.

    Sure to re-elected again

    Shankarlingegowda is no political novice.He is four time winner. If supreme court(not just high court) favors him,he is most likely to throw resignation and join JDS. This seat is a vokkaliga bastion where candidates of all party are likely to be vokkaligas.Shankarlingegowda started with journey and won due to pro-wave BJP wave and atal behari vajpyees wave and now has created his own charisma in constituentcy.Now there is no vajpayee wave or Pro-BJP wave which swept he ation once.And with increasing anti-bjp stand spreading in vokkaliga dominated areas,he is more likely to be re-elected again and comfortably. even if he looses,he is likely to loose against Vaasu of Congress.So BJP which had won this seat four times may loose this seat next time.

    Narendraswamy – mallavalli constituency candidate had stood for Congress two times and had lost against Annadani of JDS.Only last time when Congress rejected him the seat he stood as rebel and won. He is most likely to be given seat by congress and even if congress denies it,kumaraswamy will definatly give seat.He still stands tall chances of re-electing again.He is supporter of Siddaramiah and maintains the blessing of him.The two things which are in favour of him are the sympathy feelings for people towards him(way BJP treated them) and Combined blessings of Siddaramaiah and Kumaraswamy.he is most likely will be re-elected.

    Jarikiholli – Has won thrice, and has considerable political influence.jarikiholi family members be it satish,ramesh have been consistent winners. The only point which is against him is his role in removing yedyurappa who currently stands tall in minds of lingayats.Huge presence of Lingayats in his constituency(20%) could hurt him,but yet he is expected to win.Sugar lobby is very strong in belgaum and hence he is likely to win again.

    Asnotikar – Won in karwar.Comes from Asnotikar’s family which has huge influence in karwar region. He is definate to win here if he stands on congress ticket and might struggle if he stands in other party.Irrespective of verdict either he or his mother shubhalatha asnotikar might stand for elections.His only rival Ganapathi dumma ulvekar has not been able to give a dent to asnotikars family.If asnotikar is denied ticket in BJP,ganapathi might jump for congress ticket since it has good base here along with despandes influence.So it is pretty tough for BJP to retain this seat irrespective of courts verdict.

    May win or may loose

    Bellubbi – 4 time MLA. This is one seat where BJP has good chances of retaining the seat.

    Nagaraj – first time MLA of nelamangala.he got 26% of votes to win,says something about multi face competition of constituency. Has seen most of times among rebels.Has not done any significant work. His only saving grace could be is, JDS has no good candidates after shankar naik joined JDS some years back.So hence might get seat from JDS and if some caste based voting happens,he might sail in.

    Will post rest of my analysis tomorrow.

  3. sunil Says:

    Siddu and kumara has agreed to fight the by-election together. If JDS-Congress Tie-Up, BJP has no chance of saving the govt / election.

    The vote share combined by these two parties in last election is hugely higher than BJP.
    In fact, congress got the highest votes in last assembly election.

    Yeddi will have to go home.

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