CHURUMURI POLL: Assembly polls, UPA or NDA?

Friday the 13th, of May 2011, is clearly D-day in Indian politics.

The fate of the assembly elections in two States—West Bengal and Kerala—over which the Left parties have lorded over for decades will be known. While Kerala has been a five-yearly, on-off affair, it is Bengal that stands at the cusp. Will the Left step back from the abyss, or tumble over against Mamata Banerjee‘s Trinamul?

In Tamil Nadu, the ground zero of the 2G spectrum allocation scam—home of the DMK, A. Raja and Dayanidhi Maran, M. Karunanidhi‘s daughter Kanimozhi, and Kalaignar TV and Tamil Meiyyam and other dramatis personae—is facing an onslaught from Jayalalitha Jayaram and the AIADMK.

If the DMK-Congress pulls off a surprise win, and the Left is humbled in Bengal and Kerala, the assembly verdict will be a shot in the arm for the Congress-led UPA, which has been on the backfoot against a relentless torrent of corruption charges.

If the Left loses both States, it also means that the political centre well and truly belongs to the Congress and throws a big question mark over the BJP’s (and NDA’s) ability to capitalise on big issues like corruption.

What do you think is likely to happen? Is it advantage UPA or NDA? Is it a good thing for Indian democracy if the Left is wiped out from the political map? What does it say about the electorate if voters care two hoots for mind-numbing corruption? Or, are we all speaking too early?

(This churumuri poll allows you to post multiple responses)

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5 Responses to “CHURUMURI POLL: Assembly polls, UPA or NDA?”

  1. anil Says:

    Even if Congress looses, BJP cannot capitalise based on the corruption. BJP itself has a major roadblock in the form of Yeddy. If they replace yeddy, they may have something to boost about themself and get some points at the center. Otherwise, BJP and Congress, both of them are the two faces of the same coin.

  2. Goldstar Says:

    NDA is a non-factor in any of the polled states. So the question really is Congress+ or not.

  3. Simple Says:

    As of now, UPA is in power in three states. If it manages to retain any three out of five, it is status quo.

    If UPA wins 4 out of 5, it is encouraging news for UPA

    If it wins all 5 out of 5, BJP may well stop thinking of coming to power in 2014

    My political instincts tell me that UPA will win very very big in West Bengal (something in the region of 245 – no channel has predicted this big a sweep)

    Assam will go the Congress way – easily. Either a majority or comfortably close to majority.

    Puducherry seems likely to swing Congress way.

    Kerala and Tamil nadu are the tough ones.

    One thing is for sure, one can certainly rule out a Kerala Victory for LDF.
    Which means either it is a hung house or victory for UDF

    TN – is going to be very complex. The arithmetic is with DMK. So i would still bet on a small DMK win. Although the entire world is telling ADMK will win!

  4. twistleton Says:

    @Simple

    I have a feeling DMK will win too.

  5. twistleton Says:

    Feeling’s gone :D

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