CHURUMURI POLL: Who’s ahead in Karnataka?

From a Karnataka perspective, the 2014 Lok Sabha election has been a roller-coaster ride.

After the Congress’s thumping return to power in the 2013 assembly elections, the party believed it would repeat its showing in the general elections, thus making up for what is certain to be a serious rout in the Seemandhra region, following the noisy creation of the Telengana state.

The populist decisions undertaken by the Siddaramaiah government was also supposed to help to add to the Congress tally in Karnataka (Congress bagged 8 of the 28 seats, against the BJP’s 18 and the JDS’s two).

But the return of B.S. Yediyurappa to the BJP, and the re-inclusion of B. Sreeramulu, has altered the conventional wisdom on top of the headwind that Narendra Modi brings to his high-voltage campaign. The opinion polls are divided in what is in store in the state, except to suggest that the Congress might not get as high as it thought it would and the BJP as low as many thought it would.

So, what do you think would be the final score?

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11 Responses to “CHURUMURI POLL: Who’s ahead in Karnataka?”

  1. Shemej Says:

    Karnataka will remain the only major state, apart from Assam, where Congress may send more MPs to loksabha than BJP.. In Kerala, Telegana, Punjab and West Bengal Congress may get more seats than BJP, only in technical terms. But in any of these states Congress is not going to win major share of seats. in Punjab it is SAD_BJP alliance, In Kerala it is LDF led by CPM, In West Bengal it is Trinamool. In Telegana it is Chandrashekar Rao party. Interestingly, in all states where there is a powerful third party, as the main opponent of BJP, there is a good fight. But where ever there is a direct fight between BJP and Congress, Congress is passing urine in its own Chaddi out of fear.

    If Congress is going to get more seats from Karnataka, that is only because of Siddaramaiah’ s Kuruba vote politics. Sidharamaiah was not identified as Kuruba leader when he was in Janata Dal. He was a pro-rural pro-farmer politician (and not necessarily pro-poor) with great administrative skills and not so high intelligence and less diplomacy. But Congress asked him to play caste politics to defeat Devegowda. In that process Congress attracted Kurubas but other major castes abandoned Congress.

    The fact that Congress is winning some seats in Karnataka only because of a Janata Dal leader, talks volumes about its current state of affairs. Siddharamaiah is in the opposite pole of where Manmohan Singh, Chidamaram and Kapil Sibal stands.

    The congress can no way improve its position in Karnataka, (from where it stands now– by attracting other caste groups) because the moment they change Siddaramaiah, the party will collapse.

    BJP is no better. If anyone asks who is more shrewd in Politics– Yeddyurappa or Narendra Modi – we all know the answer. But the present BJP followers would abuse us, if we tell the truth.

    After elections, Modi has to deal with Yeddyurappa, apart from people like Chandra Babu Naidu et al. Sharad Pawar also may jump to NDA after the elections. It is going to be fun to watch, how a relatively low intelligent guy would manage all these shrewd political leaders. Reliance and Adani group top management may give a regular advising service. But if you need to be effective and to present an efficient govt, you need to use your own brain,and not advise from Corporate management.

    Let us wait and see. It is very likely that, BJP may still not get absolute majority after election. I have a feeling BJP may get slightly lower number of seats in Uttar pradesh and Bihar. In these states Anti Modi votes may get consolidated behind other opponents. (the Surveys can only predict the current mood. It can not accurately predict the results if there is transferring of votes to defeat leading candidates in individual constituencies. This will sure happen. Prannoy Roy says no one among the voters knows who is at second and at third position. This is not true. People dont look at who is first, second and third. People from a particular caste, group, religion or region look who is his/her main opponent. If that candidate is perceived to be leading, then he/she would vote the prominent candidate from his caste/religion/group or to the candidate who is perceived to be more sympathetic to his caste/religion. That is happening all the time. Hence, last minute transferring of votes would sure happen in states like Uttar Pradesh. Remember, in these states, there is no organization for BJP. It is just the caste sentiment. The current advantageous position BJP enjoys in India is also because of this “transferring of votes to the main opponent”. In most areas there is an anti-Congress mood. People dont vote in favour of a party. But they vote against a party. When people look other parties, they know there are good parties at local level. But they dont want to vote to a regional party which may not be able to influence govt at center. In short, people want to sense that his/her vote is actually making some influence somewhere. BJP emerged as the main opposition of Congress only because of this tactical transferring of votes to the main opponent party at National level. But that very process has created other frictions at regional level. Now there are small groups– caste groups and religious groups— who NOW WANTS TO DEFEAT the already emerged leader party. The second level of re-alignment takes place as a response to the first level of re-alignment.

    This last moment re-alignment wont happen till the last few days. this can not be judged by election surveys. Let us wait and see.

    Why I say, BJP is not the natural choice of majority of the voters of India. Simple- Within one year elections are to be conducted in Bihar, Delhi and West Bengal. We will see who is going to be elected there and who will emerge in the second place. That will confirm that BJP is not the natural choice of people. But in order to defeat Congress, people are voting en-mass to BJP. But that is creating further friction and further re-alignment would happen in some states, especially where there are multi-cornered contests, and where the leading political party is not the naturally preferred choice of the people in general. In Maharashra, BJP alliance is the natural choice of majority of people who want to defeat Congress. But it is not so in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

    But, unfortunately, that can make some changes in election results only in Uttar Pradesh and to some extent in Bihar. In those states where there is direct fight between Cong and BJP, congress has already ran away. In Orissa and Andhra the entire Congress state units ran away from the battlefield.

    If India needs to defeat evil Fascist politics, they have to first destroy Congress. As long as Congress remains in Indian politics, it wont allow other progressive forces to emerge in regions. One good thing about 2014 is , congress will not be seen even in obituary columns after this Loksabha elections. Thanks God !

    Unwanted elements like Kiran Mazumdar wont advice SM Krishna and loot public resources any more. Let Narayana Murthy and Mazumdar advice Narendra Modi and finish him…

    If NDA doesnt get absolute majority– People like Yeddyurappa will become National stars. Will be nice to watch.

    But how many communal riots we are going to witness God only Knows !

  2. dr ramesh Says:

    Non sense…. what about jd s… no mention about JD S in the article is symptomatic of the dreaded disease MEDIA is suffering from…
    NO BLURRED LINE this time it is clear…. ENGLISH MEDIA , SECTIONS OF KANNADA MEDIA has become PR MANAGERS for MODI, earning in hundreds of crores.
    EDITORS, NEWS ANCHORS are canvassing for MODI on news channels…
    Amidst this, JD S if fighting hard, upholding Democratic ethics… spending less, urging people to vote with responsibility. CONGRESS and BJP have a tacit agreement in karnataka to finish JD S, yet HDD, an epitome for pro-people agitation is shining bright.
    JD S SHOULD AND SHALLWIN 5-6 seats.

    PRE POLL SURVEY is the most lucrative business in India, WRONG, FRADULENT yet it is accepted in India… thousands of crores of easy money on offer…

    CHURUMURI PATRONS, I AM THINKING OF STARTING A ELECTION SURVEY BUSINESS….interested friends are welcome to join the venture….moderate investment…maximum gains….
    ELECTION DOCTOR CONSORTIUM.

  3. Sagar S Says:

    In Karnataka BJP+ will get 11/12 seats and UPA will get 16/17 including JD(S) 16 th lok sabha will be formed by opposition and it is not NDA, but it is 3rd front/ with UPA 3 support totally 317 seats. oppositin NDA. will have 226 seats. Amrit Sagar

  4. Khara bun Says:

    BJP – gut feel…

  5. nagaraja babu Says:

    Congress will bag 06 seats
    BJP will bag 18 seats
    JDS will bag 04 seats

  6. Mithila Says:

    Karnataka must be the only state where the Congress was able to counter the Modi storm quite effectively.But arriving at a final score is not easy given the various factors that have guided the voting pattern. Corruption could have floored the Congress, but BJP is also guilty for its wrong doings during its tenure. It appears that the Congress wholly banked on Siddaramaiah’s AHINDA mantra and various welfare schemes of his 9-month old government rather than UPA’s ten-year-long governance. The BJP leaned heavily on lingayat votes especially after strong-man Yeddyurappa’s home comming. And all the BJP candidates including the high-profile, were happy riding piggyback on Modi. The results on May 16 is expected to spring many surprises. Meanwhile, a conservative estimate gives Congress 17 seats, the Janata Dal (S) 2, and the rest will go to BJP’s killty.
    Mithila

  7. Shemej Says:

    “Non sense…. what about jd s… no mention about JD S in the article is symptomatic of the dreaded disease MEDIA is suffering from…

    I dont think JDS has got any chance to win large number of seats from Karnataka this time. Nevertheless, JD -S is an important party. It has committed vote base. If BJP is not given money from Corporate houses, BJP can not win as much number of seats as it is winning now, from Karnataka.

    It can be safely assumed that Churumuri Editor is pro-Congress. Most of my comments that he refused to publish here were criticising Congress. However, some of my hard hitting comments against Narendra Modi was also removed, without any valid reason.

    I can tell that, till this date, I have never posted a single abuse. Yes, I have posted controversial comments. But I have given evidence to support my claim. And I accept legal responsibility for every single word that I utter. No question of running away.

    When I first commented in this forum that Narendra Modi was married and abandoned wife without giving her divorce and pyschologically harass her by preventing the journalists from meeting her etc (according to Open Magazine report), many refused to believe me at that time.

    The problem with Janata Dal is something different

    Why Kumaraswamy is contesting to Loksabha now? Obviously he is going to try for a minister post at center. If he tries to become a minsiter in Third Front ministry, that is okay. But if he tries for minister’s post in Modi’s cabinet, that will be the end of the political career of that shameless person. At any cost, he wanted to get a minister post some where. Why he is wasting the public resources by contesting every election and then resign from that post?

    Because of this son, a great party Janata Dal -Secular and its great leader Sri Deve Gowdaru are getting bad names.

    See the case of another great son of Karnataka – Sri Devraj Urs.

    I dont believe in God. But some times, I wonder, why God gives so much fame and blessing to some people.. so that people respect them, remember them with pride, almost worship them. But God also gives a prodigal son, whose actions would ironically remind the people of the greatness of his father/mother. And these great old parent(s) would live for years hearing all the bad news about prodigal son in their old age… And they would lead, a sad lonely life… And one day they would leave this world with full of agony in the heart….

  8. Faldo Says:

    It would be foolhardy to predict the number of seats both at the state and national level. In the previous two Lok Sabha elections, one has seen a tendency among most opinion polls carried out by major media outlets to assign more seats to the NDA and other opposition parties and use the same stick to beat them when the actual results prove otherwise.
    In this election too unless there is a major surprise in store, it would be unreasonable to expect any one grouping to be anywhere close to the halfway mark. This might mean that regional parties could play an important role. It would be interesting to see if there is a scenario similar to the 1996 elections with a change in the players involved.

  9. Shemej Says:

    Faldo Says: 26 April 2014 at 1:04 am

    I guess, you are right.

    But please note: All election surveys are now predicting an absolute majority to NDA.

    Are they over-estimating things for BJP? Sure they are. But they are not deliberately doing it. There are genuine trend.

    My simple question is– “Why should the election surveys over estimate the number of seats a particular group may get in the election?”

    We all know that there are agencies like Neilsen.. If you search online you can find any number of instances Neilsen has come with inflated results for obvious reasons. In short, the revenue model of Neilsen, there are reasons to believe, is accomplished by manipulating the results to boost the chances of players. But most other agencies have to preserve their credibility. They can not come with bizarre results and continue to build their brand image in a tough market. Neilsen is an international player. They have monopoly in many markets. Say for example, they were, accused of manipulating “TAM” ratings of Indian media.

    There would be some Survey agencies who are purchased by a political group with close Corporate nexus. That possibility can not be ruled out.

    But the question is this. Leave these manipulators aside, why almost all surveys are predicting absolute majority for NDA?

    And most of these surveys do not give good number of seats to BJP anywhere in South India and East India. Almost all seats BJP is projected to get are from North India, West India and Central India.

    And According to NDTV survey, BJP can get utp 51 seats ONLY FROM UTTAR PRADESH.

    if some agencies want to say lie, why should they say such a lie. They could easily say, BJP is getting large number of seats from different states across India.

    And where exactly BJP getting seats in Uttar Pradesh, according to surveys?

    It is from Eastern Uttar Pradesh.

    And not from Western Uttar Pradesh, where the Jat heartland is.

    It is in this Eastern Uttar Pradesh, where Narendra Modi is contesting– in Varanasi. (1)That all other three parties were supporting incumbent govt at Delhi might have given this political vacuum. Also 2) Muzaffer Nagar riots 3) all OBC other than Yadavs,Jats,Thakurs and Brahmins are now rallying under BJP flag- Social engineering by projecting top leader from each major castes.)

    Except in UP (and Bihar) all other areas where BJP is getting large number of seats are from those states where there is a direct fight between Congress and BJP. The situation is similar to Anti-Gundu Rao wave when Ramakrishna Hegde first came to power in Karnataka. Every broom-stick which fought against Congress won that time. Almost all broom-sticks branded Namo are enjoying similar favouring situation now, at national level, especially, where there is a direct fight against Congress.)

    Last time Congress got 20 seats from Uttar Pradesh. This time the same number of seats or slightly more seats may go to BJP as the popular mood in the nation is against Congress.

    These people who are voting for BJP (last time to Congress) are not voters of BJP or Congress. They are fence sitting floating voters.This is the interesting fact. (This is why in these states, immediately after Loksabha election, BJP would be defeated in Assembly elections. (But in states like Maharashtra, where it has presence, BJP may still win. But in Uttar Pradesh , Orissa, and Bihar BJP may not win in assembly elections.)

    I would say, we need to congratulate the election surveys for finding out this trend in Eastern Uttar Pradesh and reporting it. It is not a joke. It is brilliant scientific analysis.

    Does this mean, BJP would actually get the same number of seats from Uttar Pradesh?

    I believe it wont. I explained this earlier. Surveys can only predict the popular mood. It can not pin point the actual result.

    It can not find out the “last minute transferring of votes to defeat a particular group.”

    Please read my earlier posts. I have touched this point.

    But, still NDA will be a 20 to 35 seats away from half way mark. But if BJP crosses 235, it is very difficult to stop BJP from forming the government. Even if one or two major group abstain during the voting, they can form the govt.

    Yes, I agree, NEVER IN THE HISTORY OF INDIA, SURVEY HAVE CORRECTLY PREDICTED NATIONAL RESULTS.

    What happened in the past was, They went completely wrong in 3 or 4 major states. But what they gave to main party in two states were adjusted with the mistakes in the opposite direction in two other states.

    Here is the tricky situation this time. If poll surveys go wrong in Uttar Pradesh, that would be funny. No other two states can correct the mistakes of this large state.

    I have strong feeling that, BJP would get below 25 seats in Uttar Pradesh, BSP and Samajwadi party would take away this extra 35 plus seats and share between them. Of course, Congress may not win more than 3 seats in UP this time. Remember Uttar Pradesh is the neighbour of Delhi. SP and BSP together may play the same role that AAP played in Delhi during the last Assembly election. I wont be shocked if AAP gets 2 or 3 seats in UP this time.

    That would result in a hung parliament. In that case Jayalalitha may become Prime Minister with the support of Congress and Third Front Plus Trinamul.

    But, if we can trust the surveys, that possibility does not exist. NDTV claims they have only 2% error margin.

    But I am sure, BJP wont get 51 in Uttar Pradesh… It will be less. But will they go below 25 is a crucial question.

  10. pm Says:

    Now back in Singapore,

    Spent almost a week in India, during the most crucial and historic election time!

    Personally drove an old car (no air bags and all) for almost 900 Kms.
    Trip to India was quite an adventure. Full alert while on road since no lane or rule discipline whatsoever.

    I found only 2-3 topics to discuss am0ng all: Modi, Inflation, Scams, and Injustice.

    Finally everyone out there is expecting a new Govt that makes all Indians proud and “hopefully” a swift revival (however tough) of the completely doomed economy!

    Well, based on my personal experience on ground reality in India, I am also wondering how long will the honeymoon last, considering the fact that new Modi Govt is inheriting a completely collapsed economy, uncontrolled inflation, dilapidated revenue generation-bankrupt treasury, no investor confidence-sentiments, ridiculous fuel subsidies, mega-scams-driven infra decisions, unemployment, power shortage, meek-introversial foreign policy..etc.

    The challenges are extraordinary!

    Opportunities for INDIA are immense and any ONCE IN A LIFE TME momentum demands a new Govt that is 100% transparent, faithful to Modi (strictly no significant role to the Advani-gang or the Jinnah-fans-crooked fixers including Sushma, Uma Bharati, Anant Kumar..etc) and hopefully demonstrates the absolute/blind trust of billions!

    A new Govt (with talented ministers unlike the dodo’s in power in the past, remote-controlled by an Italian madam and juvenile son) that will focus on swiftly creating an environment for critical and “much-needed global investment flow” into India, will also have to ensure all the mega corrupt crooks of the past are punished severely, summarily.

    Sadly, if early indicators are a omen, the move to placate the anti-Modi villains within the party (Advani, Sushma, Anant Kumar, Uma Bharathi, Varun Gandhi..et all) combined with the news that crooked and well-known corrupt-fixers like Gadkari (and state satrups, especially in the south) are already playing a key role on the emerging Govt/cabinet it makes anyone wonder if this party (guided by the most sacrosanct-zero corruption tolerance RSS) is shockingly SQUANDERING AWAY A HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY!

    I trust most Indians will believe in a genuine & spotless leader, passionate about India finally becoming a real superpower, a thought leader of an administrator, who has delivered good governance, who has repeatedly performed double digit growth in all key sectors, surprisingly he is actually a tea-vendor turned CM who today commands absolute respect from every other Indian that I know globally.

    Moving forward, WITH FORESIGHT: I guess the July Budget will be crucial and a key record-breaking spike to ‘specific’ stocks. (Email me if interested)

  11. Doddi Buddi Says:

    Where is Dr. Ramesh and what is he saying now??!!! LOL

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